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Exit poll: Fianna Fáil surge but it's bad news for Fine Gael-Labour coalition

The first exit poll is in.

Image: Sasko Lazarov

FINE GAEL AND Labour look to be well short of an overall majority after today’s General Election, according to the first exit poll.

The Irish Times reports that the coalition parties have a combined 34% of first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil are on 22.9%, suggesting there was something of a late surge in support for them, while Sinn Féin are on 14.9%, and Independents appear to have taken 16.1% of first preference votes.

Interviews for the exit poll were conducted by Ipsos MRBI with people leaving polling centres after casting their vote.

We can’t make totally accurate predictions about Dáil seats yet, because tonight’s exit poll only takes into account first preference votes.

Results:

If tonight’s exit poll turns out to be accurate, it would suggest a combined fall in support for Fine Gael and Labour of 21.7% of first preference votes since 2011 – a massively significant decrease.

2011vs2016

On the basis of these numbers, Labour could see its support collapse, falling by more than half, from 19.5% five years ago, to 7.8% today.

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will have seen a gain of around 5% each, but perhaps the biggest story of Election 2016 could be the rise of Independents and the smaller parties.

In 2011, Independents, People Before Profit, the Socialist Party and the Greens got a combined 16.1% of first preference votes.

Tonight’s exit poll, however, suggests that with the addition of the Social Democrats and Renua, support for Independents and the smaller parties may have rocketed, by more than 12% – from 16.1% to 28.6%.

2011vs2016ind

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About the author:

Dan MacGuill

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