Friday 24 May, 2013
TODAY IS THE last day of campaigning in the Fiscal Compact referendum. While the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns have been trying their hardest to get your see things their way, we’re interested to know:
Have either of them succeeded in swinging you from the opposite view point (or even from the ‘Don’t Know’)?
Poll Results:
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If everyone is voting NO, howcome the result will be YES?
@ Tensing Norgay
“exactly social media always heavily patrolled by the left”
Or rather people who read social media tend to read more widely on the internet & be better informed & less likely to fall for the establishment propaganda bias of mainstream media which typically parrots the interests of it’s wealthy senior execs & funders.
Great point Gerry. I cant remember one journal.ie poll that has in any way been representative of the full electorate. I fully expect a 60/40 split to the yes tomorrow….If the journal.ie poll were to be believed then the no would win by a 75/25 margin.
Of course people will start to abuse and shout and say that we are all puppets or muppets or members of some elite eurocrat brigade…
The truth however is that middle Ireland want this passed…
@ Mike , now that’s pompous : “people who read social media tend to read more widely on the internet & be better informed & less likely to fall for the establishment propaganda bias of mainstream media which typically parrots the interests of its wealthy senior execs & funders” Wow , you know for a fact that people who coincidentally share your beliefs are better read , are less gullible than the rest of us and im sure even a little bit sexier than the rest of us , sound like unsubstantiated garbage to me or maybe it a clever way of telling us how smart you are. Anywho, maybe you are right, im clearly intellectually stunted, I thought that Ross o Carrol was a real person until last week , the paper never told me it was a fictional character . shooks !
Fear is making people vote yes, it’s about time we stood on our own two feet come hell or high water i don’t want another bank loan hanging over us but FG and Labour think borrowing is the way to go, have they forgotten that’s what got the Country in dire straits to begin with. A nooooooooo from me
I would encourage people to try read the treaty to help make up their mind.
Its quite jargony in places but bear with articles 3-8 11,12 and 15 and you’ll find plenty of reason to vote no.
The key to voting is an informed choice.
Im Voting Yes , barely , not becasue im duped into beliveing anything Kenny has to say , i dont belive that in and of itself it will create one Job , and stability will only come about with a wider solution to the banking crisis but voting No does nothing in this repsect either , we have no latititude to negoitate becuse they can move on without us, its no like lisbon or the other treaties. I believe that this is just the first move in a game of Chess to asuage Germans voters who rightly or wrongly think they are paying for goverments that spend more than they take in. Can we really take the risk of going back to the markets when the euro economy is in the toilet , what interest rate would we get , suppose we are oustside the ESM and we are charged 6,7, or 8 %, now then we are talking austerity and heading into complet calamity , this is Sh*t sanwhich folks but i believe the yes is only margianally more palitable
Tensing where is the money going to come from to fund the ESM? Consider the following in a worst case scenario and the €700 billion has to be accessed. The following countries will be contributing to it. Greece €19 billion, Italy committed to funding 18% of the fund. Spain is meant to fund 12%. Ireland €11 billion. Of those 4 countries 2 are shut out of the markets and Spain and Italy’s market rates are over 6% for 10 year bonds. Where is the money going to come from?
The time for the ESM has come and gone. If it had happened maybe 2 years ago I could see the point now it’s like putting a sticking plaster on a cut artery. To little to late – the story of European leadership since 2008…..
@ Tensing
But the question you should be asking is why are Eurozone countries being gouged for interest on their borrowing in the first place?
Sovereign currency countries, like UK, US, Japan etc etc ALL set THEIR OWN interest rate. In times of recession when gov borrowing automatically rises (or the jobless starve) low interest rates are set, allowing growth measures to produce recovery.
The opposite happens in the Euro – we are gouged by private banks to pay higher rates at the time we most need lower costs. paying 3 to 4 +times+ what sovereign currency countries pay – the cost +is+ the interest rate, the principal is never repaid, rather rolled over & growth makes it sustainable (the debt/GDP +ratio+).
Being at the mercy of ‘markets’ is effectively a tax paid to banks. One that sovereign currency countries do not pay. In the Euro, at every downturn in the economic cycle, the tax goes up. Guess in who’s interests the Euro was designed?
Do you really want to live your life as a milch cow for the wealthy financial elites?
The structure of the Euro is deeply flawed by design. It is not a partnership of equals, rather it inherently creates winners & losers. It creates ‘debt peons’ who will never climb back out of their debt holes.
Ask yourself, will Ireland (& the other highly endebted periphery) ever really out compete industrial Germany, and do so from such a position of deep recession, high unemployment & higher interest debt? Because that is precisely what we must do in order to recover with the present shared currency structure.
If we are to share a currency as partners, not (debt) slaves to masters, the Euro system must be radically reformed. Greece & Spain are the warnings of what is coming to Ireland if we vote yes & aquiesce to the failed thinking that has created this crisis over the last 4 years & before.
The ESM is +not+ an ‘insurance policy+. It is an instrument that will demand punitive borrowing costs & conditions, & destroy a country just as has been done with Greece.
The Euro system is a creature of, by & for the financial sector elites to extract wealth for nothing in return. It now dictates, by threat of expulsion or punitive sanctions the economies of the weaker countries.
If you want this to change, vote NO, we will not get another chance for years & will suffer greatly in that time.
We are being reeled in on a hook. Without policies to stimulate the growth that is the only way out, more unsustainable debt will be piled on.
Think about it. We already have a tacit admission that more borrowing will be required in 2 years time. (We cannot possibly meet the fantasy growth ‘targets’ for next year & 2014 & on.) The borrowing we have now is barely sustainable, how will more borrowing on these terms (at punitive rates, with austerity conditions) make us more sustainable?
It won’t, it’s a con. Vote NO & demand a currency union that works for citizens, not banks.
Charles Hugh Smith understands perfectly where the financial sector is taking the Eurozone:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay12/EU-neocolonial5-12.html
Vote yes if you want to hand over our hard won Republic to the new, faceless colonial masters of the financial elites. It is that simple.
@ Kerry and Mike I agree with you both on many points, I literally cringe when i see our Euro leaders prevaricate at every turn. I despair when I think that Enda Kenny is faced with complex negotiation and we won’t even talk about the democratic that’s exist in Europe right now deficit but what does a no vote get you, nothing that I can see, I still don’t see how our is strengthened, we are not needed in for this agreement, we have no bargaining chip. This is all smoke and mirrors, it more about saying yeah were on board we will try and sort ourselves out, it’s a game (one with massive consequences I grant you) .Look Even outside of the ESM access, what are we actually saying, that we want to reject rules about budgeting which we now need because our fickle tax base fell away with stamp duty. We have an ambivalent attitude towards austerity in this country, we say no more cuts, no more taxes, yet we take in 18 Billion a year less than we spend, we are at the mercy of others, we have to borrow an awful lot of money totally aside from any bank debt, would any normal household continue to operate in this manner? Look any rational observer knows Europe is at a cross roads we either break up and suffer an unknown faith or we go full in , go federal , federalise the debt , repurpose the ECB into a functioning central bank that can print money in the way US does but of course that will mean tax harmonisation. The sad this is that both side have portrayed their way as the solution the fact is it could go either way , there is no pretty way out of this , However my view is that you keep powder dry ,play the game this is all coming to a head soon either way!
How To Vote Tomorrow?
Austerity does not create jobs, neither does borrowing beyond our means. I believe we need fresh ideas to tackle the debt issue. There should be no debt forgiveness to start with. Mortgages that are in arrears more that 6 months should be restructured and even become second generation mortgages if necessary. Whoever inherits the home takes on the mortgage or the mortgage is repaid from the persons estate. Interest rates would be dropped and repayments reduced for these mortgages. The banks cannot afford to write off up to 10% of all mortgage debt. We should look at peoples lifestyles and see where are there opportunities to generate taxes without causing pain to the poor and marginalised. We should be buying from shops that use Irish suppliers and not like one of the biggest supermarkets that imports all its products from the UK. We should reduce the number of TD’s to 90 and change the required number represented by a TD. All public representatives should be voluntary as they were historically. I have plenty of ideas but no one will listen. I have put them out there but they fall on deaf ears. We live in the best little country on the planet but have blinkered leaders without a clear plan. They are being dictated to by Europe and lack the courage to negotiate on our behalf. I will vote on Thursday, but I don’t know what is best for Ireland. I have doubts about this Treaty and the consequences of voting NO. It amazes me that so many are undecided. I hope whatever the outcome tomorrow we can get a handle on the debt and create jobs by a growth package. I would pay more if it was ring fenced to create jobs.
I’m voting no, because i don’t see how austerity to balance the books of countries who are spending more on public services than they’re earning in tax revenues etc., is going to help us! We’re in the position of paying off unsecured bondholders, and birrowing at massive cost to do so. This treaty does not address this.
Cork’s 96fm did a text in vote and astonishing it was 81% No, 19% Yes out of about 2200 votes.
Either way it will be an interesting result giving all the poll results leading up to it.
Either way now, hopefully the right choice is made of Ireland, it’s people and its future.
still havent changed my mind ,im voting NO because i have had enough of this austerity ,they havent kept any of the promises they made when they got a mandate from the ppl of this countrey,i always voted Labour but they are total traiters ,enough is enough ,vote NO let them go take a running jump .
How are the polls making it a 60-40 split in favour of the “Yes” side? As far as I can see it’s a lot closer than that ,and we could yet see the people voting “No” on the day. I can only presume that these pollsters are in the pay of the Government who, when not telling lies or trying to frighten people into ratifying this Treaty, have not put up convincing arguments as to why we should take them at their word. The “No” camps have been far more convincing in this campaign but it remains to be seen if the people are actually LISTENING to them. For the record I’m voting “No” because I object to beurocrats from outside Ireland who I never voted for, much less know, interfering in our National affairs and imposing their austerity on the workers, the poor, and vulnerable who had no hand or part in the mess we are in now.
Its actually closer than that Eddie. Although its a 60-40 split between those who have made up their minds, a third are still undecided (going by the averages across the polls).
So in actuality, what this means is that for every 15 people polled, 6 are a yes, 4 are a no and 5 are undecided. Its still wide open and every vote counts. Anybody thinking of staying at home should get out and vote.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO IM WITH GERRY ADAMS NO NO NO NO NO NO
Irelands Owen,your on here commenting …..how ironic is that ,and as far as im concerned the ppl voting no are the only ones Who Are living in the real world world as opposed to the ivory tower you seem to live in .
vote NO
Voting no will not stop austerity, everyone agrees with that. I am voting yes as I believe in living within your means and do not trust Irish politicians to look after our money, they have squandered the wealth of this country since the foundation of the state, they have continually bought votes from all sections of the community, cutting taxes, increasing social welfare payments, bonuses for having children, benchmarking, giving their builder mates special tax exceptions, the list goes on and on they are not to be trusted with out taxes.
Karl how much bank debt do we owe. I can tell you not with in our means. We dont think voting no will stop austerity it will probanly make it worse but the EU will have to make a new plan when we tell them we are paying no more. I hope you will be able to pay your morgage if its a yes vote when the irish banks collapse next year & the last gasp of the irish economy is followed there after. David McWilliams has said the EU alone got us here & they cant fix this because Germany doesnt want to pay. If we take the same approach we will right off the bank debt something Germany cant live with.
Paddy Power gives odds of a Yes at 1:25 and a No at 8:1. I have to admit I’m tempted to put a tenner on a “No” even though I’m not a gambler for the simple reason that the No side seems far more motivated. All the Yes people I’ve heard (save for a few hardcore party members) are reluctantly voting Yes and are no way enthusiastic about it whereas people voting No seem far more passionate. Turn-out will be a big factor in the decision I think. It’s happened before where the Yes side looked good in the polls but ended up losing as their side already assumed they had it and their voters simply didn’t show up. Should be interesting to see but I’d guess the actual vote will be closer than the polls indicate making the odds on a No pretty tempting.
I took a minute to count the number of people who are on either side of this debate. There are a few undecided. including myself. It appears to be roughly 25 against the treaty and 10 against. This would indicate a 70/30 split in favour of a no vote. For those who are wondering if TheJournal.ie readers or rather the people who contribute to the debates are representative of Ireland’s population and views, then Thursday’s result might shed some light on it.
You are missing an option there! – What about started as a NO, still voting NO ? Why was this omitted?
Admittedly started as a “Don’t Know (Leaning towards NO due to my natural suspicion of the EU!)” but moved increasingly towards YES as the campaign went on, & not JUST because my general rule of thumb is “Find out what SF are doing & cheerfully proceed to do the opposite”.
Fact of the matter is, the YES camp were the only ones actually talking about the Treaty itself & not completely extraneous issues, suggesting they had significantly less to hide! The long & short of it is, no matter how much certain parties would like it to be, this Treaty has nothing to do with austerity measures.
I started out as Yes…. wavered a bit… now back on the Yes side. Mostly because of the non-political commentators, to be honest. Great piece on yesterday’s Times that made sense of it for me. So, a grudging Yes from me. I think the alternative is way too dangerous (basically, I don’t want my little business going tits-up and having to lay off my employees)
Started as a Yes, still voting Yes for Stability, Investment and balanced budgets
Earlier in the year there was much speculation about some movement by the ECB on Irish debt restructuring. Michael Noonan made a comment to this effect.
However, this went quiet and was dropped.
By EAMON QUINN March 2012
DUBLIN (Dow Jones)–Ireland’s bailout lenders have completed much of the technical work on rescheduling EUR31 billion in promissory notes the Irish government has pumped into dead banks, and are now weighing a much wider “retro-refinancing” of the huge costs it has shouldered during the country’s banking crisis, a personal familiar with the matter said Monday.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, a senior Irish official said there was “cautious optimism” that a complex deal to free the government from paying the next, EUR3.1 billion installment on the promissory notes will be struck by the end of this month.”
The ECB have made no bones about the levels of public sector pay and the Croke Park deal. Is it possible that this will be revisited in return for opening talks on debt restructuring?
This could effect how I vote.
Young Fine Gael would seem to be at one mind with the ECB on this.
“Young Fine Gael President, Eric Keane, has called on the Government to rescind the Croke Park Agreement.
Mr Keane said “Under section 28 of the agreement the Government has the right to scrap the deal if the country’s fiscal position deteriorates. “This condition has clearly been met.”
YFG website
He is dead right Alison…Why do we need Enda and Gerry in some ‘gunfight type’ debate??? what does that achieve apart from turning a very factual question into a popularity race…. who cares who would win the debate???
Read the treaty, make your mind up and vote….
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when Declan Ganley is the only voice of reason, the Taoiseach is running scared and Phil Hogan has gone into hiding, something stinks to high heaven. Sinn Féin may be the best hope for the yes campaign. Either way get out and vote in the only poll that actually counts.
Started as a Don’t Know but will vote Yes. I read the Treaty.
“It is acknowledged and agreed that the granting of financial assistance in the framework of new programmes under the ESM will be conditional, as of 1 March 2013, on the ratification of the TSCG [the Fiscal Treaty] by the ESM member concerned…”
Read on, theres a bit about the European Commission being legally permitted to offer proposals to countries and if proposals arent adopted, we get fined. We have to report to the Commission also and they are obliged to implement measures if we fail to meet our targets, by attacking sectors of their choosing, for any length of time for any degree of severity.
To vote for this is go cecede all economic sovereignty.
Article 15 allows us to sign up later if we want, so whats the rush? Reform the treaty and maybe we might have something worth signing up to at some stage.
The status quo is a budget deficit funded by the Troika bail out. Post 2013 a new status quo must be found and the deficit funded by either the ESM or, at one stroke, by removing the deficit through increased taxation and swingeing expenditure cuts. Now that’s austerity. What is the alternative to borrowing from the ESM under the terms of the Treaty? Saying no in the expectation that fear of damaging the euro will force concessions on the bank debt? A poor bluff when you’ve no stake to bet with.
Tomorrow they shall ask us
And we shall scream “NEIN!”
And when they ask us again
We shall scream “NEIN!”
NINE times out of NINE
We shall scream “NEIN!”
Until the Germans learn
That “NEIN!” means NEIN!”.
Was on the fence until finally an article which went into some proper detail about the implications of a No vote. This is “Rock and a Hard Place” territory for sure, and am still open to other other views, keep them coming, but currently i’m voting Yes. And thats not in support of, or against the political clowns at the head of either side. http://thebowlerfiles.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/how-bad-could-it-get-the-implications-of-an-irish-no-vote-in-the-eu-fiscal-compact-treaty/
I think that this referendum will prove that the opinions voiced by the readers of journal are generally those of a minority. The majority of people on here are calling for a No vote yet the country will vote yes. Luckily the keyboard warriors on here don’t represent the views of the people who live in the real world.
If this Treaty is passed it will have been with the help of the FF and FG sheep who always side with these parties, regardless of their endless failures, and cronyism, in Government going back several decades. The people you insultingly call keyboard warriors are the ones living in the real world of austerity, austerity, and more austerity. You probably don’t even know the meaning, or have any experience, of austerity. You’re an idiot.
Chris,
Not getting into a battle with you on this… sick of it really am… In summary, I believe that a Yes vote sends a possitive message to the whole world about Ireland and I also believe that living within our means is a pretty good idea.
I do take issue with being referred to as a’sheep’ becasue i hold these views.
Irelands owen, I suspect you are well funded into the future and have nothing to loose. In the real world however as a pensioner I have lost almost 25% of my pension exclusively due to government decisions already. Most people in work and some self employed suffered similarly, the least effected are higher civil servants, bank execs and politicians and subsidised entraupeners. Those are the main reasons we are forced to continue borrowing instead of using tax to run our country for the good of all at a reasonable level, the special interests as distinct from special needs are as usual first to get the gravy.
The bookemakers are seldom wrong….. wonder what way they are calling it…
By the way Declan, I’ve just seen your remarks where you dismiss the people who backed my comments, calling “the same brigade on here every day…” For someone who objects to being called a sheep that is very revealing. Vote Yes as you wish, but if this Treaty does get ratified and all our worst nightmares come true don’t come on here complaining about it. And that’s my final word to you on the matter.
Started at yes, then went to no, now at “I don’t know” so probably won’t vote.
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