People will soon find that water charges and property taxes are NOT in the text. Scaremongering by the Socialist Party by putting that issue on their NO posters yesterday.

Austerity is in the Treaty tho David. Household tax and water charges will be the least of our worries if this Treaty is passed!

David your correct there is enough stuff in this treaty even without those things you mentioned to encourage a No vote.Thanks for pointing that out.

How dare you talk about scaremongering when your 7 chinned minister for Finance threatened a worse budget if we vote no yesterday? How do you defend that David?

A lot of the votes on the no side are going to be contrarian votes; people are annoyed with the government and have an opportunity to get their digs in. It’s hard to make an informed decision when the treaty is written in such a way. You would need a law degree to decipher it.

http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/639235/st00tscg26_en12.pdf

Ahh David, just the chap I was hoping to see here….I was talking a comrade of yours from the FG collective yesterday…a passing conversation, a conversation between fiends if you will and the subject came up about road tax, both he and I were in agreement that it’s way too high and then with no hint of mirth, no hint of just messing about…with an actual straight poker face he said to me that unless I vote yes to the austerity treaty the road tax will be double or even triple to what it is now…..”Oh”..says I, “by that reasoning a yes vote will see road tax drop?”
“Don’t be stupid” he says, “I’m only saying a no vote will mean higher everything”….i walked away from him and I brought with me a realisation that FG’s only plan is to punish us severely if we dare vote no on this austerity treaty, tell me David, is that not threatening the electorate?..is that not the actions of a government who will punish their own people for failing to comply with a diktat designed by Germany to appease German taxpayers?…….and why can’t we have a government who will do their damnedest to protect Irish taxpayers?

I think what Michael Noonan was referring to yesterday is the fact that the country runs out of money in 2014.

A yes vote gives us access to the ESM if and when we need it, whereas a no vote means we must look elsewhere, which doesnt guarantee that we’ll get anything. Even if we do, the terms and conditions could be way worse than what we have now. If its a thing that we can’t borrow from anywhere else, the enormity of austerity will really hit, as the country will face having to make a huge correction to the budget in a short space of time.

I agree, that it came across badly, he could have said it better, but a lot of that is the fact that his comment was cast under the shadow of the scaremongering that is going on in the yes campaign. He didn’t mean that if we vote no, the government will punish us for going against them. What he meant was that if we vote no, the government will have to balance the books a lot quicker than they expected, leading to hugely increased austerity.

You failed to mention Enda, that its because of michael noonan that a no vote would exclude us from the ESM. He was in the room when the blackmail clause was created and had the ability to block its inclusion. He did not. Fine gael didn’t want us to have our say and when they failed they colluded to blackmail our population.

@ David. The blackmail clause was not in the text either until your mentors colluded to put a gun to the heads of the irish people. And you want to talk about scaremongering?

Too True,

There wouldn’t be a fund at all were it not for a clause whereby countries agree to adopt balanced budgets.

Did you seriously expect him to say countries should get huge amounts of money anyway even if they don’t sign up?

Incorrect Impartial Eclipse. The ESM treaty was agreed in July 2011 with no mention of Fiscal treaty ratification in order to be able to access the ‘bailout’ (emergency loan with interest) fund . The blackmail clause was inserted last February and our government did not object and so failed again to protect the interests of the Irish people.
In addition we are currently accessing the EFSF bailout fund while we are most certainly not running a balanced budget.
The reason that we need these bailout loans is that the debts of the banking collapse have been wrongly imposed on Ireland and we just can’t support them. When the ECB finally admits this truth and works with us to repudiate this illegitimate and odious debt then Ireland will again have a viable economy and have no need of emergency funding .

The ‘blackmail clause’ as you call it is spin as far as I’m concerned, the same way as some ranks are referring to this treaty as being an ‘austerity treaty’, and yes I’ll say it, a ‘stability treaty’.

The simple fact of it is that if Ireland weren’t in the position where we needed to access these funds, and we were pumping billions into another country that time and time again neglected to adhere to what is being set out in the Fiscal Treaty, we’d be complaining about it.

If it were a personal bank loan, you wouldn’t get it unless the bank saw that you were living comfortably within your means, this is a bigger version of the same thing. If you’re going to accept a bailout, you have to tighten your belt, and thats what the ‘blackmail clause’ is about.

Why does everyone assume that the ESM is all for us? We front up with funds we don’t have, then Spain who are doing worse than us need it – what then? Where’s the guarantee of funds? Will there be enough?
Oh of course there will, because the ESM can call in more whenever it wants from its members (even when we don’t have it) and we are obliged to pay within 7 days, we face fines if we don’t (and loss of voting privileges if I read it correctly).. But we don’t have it, we’d be in to contribute €11billion to start with.

Oh, and there’s no legal recourse, the ESM is above the law.

How exactly is this a guarantee for us?

How much are we (Ireland) contributing to this “bailout” fund? 11 billion, isn’t it? Chickenfeed these days…

More austerity they said? What they never said was that a No vote would do is; 1) possibly restrict us from EU funding (I say possibly, because there is always a doubt in peoples minds that they feel they would need to anyway), 2) result in more austerity by way of paying for a bailout via higher interest rate and terms set by whoever gives us the money (including the EU), 3) puts jobs and investment at risk because the country is seen as unstable seeing as we rejected the notion of safer funding and better spending rules – wtf will Ireland do next? Will they survive? Are they reliable? etc. Indeed, water and house taxes are the least of peoples worries if the worse case scenario happens and we are informed that cuts will need to be harsher to meet the bailout agreement.

If we voted Yes – we have safer funding, better management of our finances and are seen as a stable country. More austerity? Yes. Either way, austerity is on the way. Fact.

The Fiscal Compact Referendum is not that hard to crasp.

Firstly, the emergency / bailout fund total is going to be €500bn (on top of €200 billion already committed to bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal) funded by 17 euro area member states. An initial paid-in capital is required by all such states. For Ireland, we must pay initially €1.273bn in five equal instalments starting in July 2013. We have such money readily available without needing to draw down or ask for an additional loan by the state.

We do not need €11.3bn for “membership” as you describe. This figure you quote is our overall guaranteed sum in the event that the ESM draws down the full €500. So, like other states, if the ESM needs to give someone a massive bailout which means drawing down all funds available (ie €700bn) than that is where we would need to pay out.

Yes, we do need 11.3 billion for membership. It will be seen by the markets as another liability against Ireland on top of the existing 129.6 billion debt.

censored; Only drawn down if the bailout is ever drawn down in full. We do not have to pay this immediately, or into the future, unless we are participating in a bailout and all our funds are required.

So how many Eurozone ESM members are liable to need the fund?
Spain? Greece? Portugal? Italy?
Little ol’ Ireland is good at taking austerity, we have proven that.. Those others don’t take it so well, plus their countries and also their debts are larger.. The ESM can demand extra on top of that provisional €11billion we’re signed up for any time they like without notice – and we get it in the neck if we can’t come up with it, with the way these austerity budgets are going its looking more and more like the ESM may have a lot more than just us to deal with.. So while the full €11 billion might not be called on, it could also end up being far more..

Thats exactly the point Reada… and from 2015 onwards, Ireland must pay an additional 5.7billion euros a year to pay off the banking debt (in order to meet our Debt to GDP ratio requirments that must be met as part of the treaty)… I want to hear one Yes party supporter please explain where we are going to get this extra 5.6 billion per year from ?? That is on top of the 3.5billion a year we will be paying next year in interest for that same debt.
If we vote NO, then as Constantin suggests, we would be in a much stronger position to challenge the EU to eliminate the banking debt (all 70 billion of it) in return for full support on paying our fiscal debt and bringing it into line.

We wouldn’t be fined because it was not our intention to run up such a large budget deficit. In Greece and Italy they raised spending well above their tax take. In Ireland our tax base collapsed and that’d be enough of a case to have the sanctions stopped.

Once more David, under the compact, we would be required to have a debt to GDP ratio of 60%… We are at 120% right now because of the banking debt (70 billion and counting). Maybe you didnt understand that as part of the treaty David??? So i ask you again, did you know that from 2015 onwards, we must pay an additonal 5.6 billion euros per year to eat away at the 70 billion banking debt, in order to meet the fiscal compacts Debt to GDP ratio? Please dont dodge the question again, you are only letting the folks who are unsure what way to vote, see what a total pile of crap the treaty really is. How would you get an extra 5.6billion euro collected in taxes every year, over and above what has already been done to us David?? And how the hell would that not destroy our economy?

There’s David now Cal. I think he qualifies as an ardent yes Fine Gael supporter. David will you explain where we are going to get this extra €5.6 billion per year from ? On top of the €3.5billion?

Maybe you’ll explain Réada how we keep borrowing *one third* of all government spending each year? (and additional money for bonds etc).

Gary, we are borrowing 1/3 of government spending .. yes, you are right .. and 20% of that borrowing, is going to pay off the Banking debt. We used the pension reserve fund and the National Management Asset money to fund the banking debt also… in other words, we would not be borrowing, if we were not supporting banking debt… and once more for slow readers, from 2015 onwards, we have to pay an additional 5.6 billion euro to pay off this banking debt, on top of the 3.5 billion euro we are already paying every year… Thats almost 10 billion euro a year Gary. Where will this money come from? If you acknowledge that we cant afford to pay almost 10 billion a year for the banking debt, then you must acknowledge that we will be immediately breaching the fiscal compact rules and will automatically be forced to pay almost 600 million a year in EU fines… which means that we will have to borrow that money also … and the cycle just gets worse and worse… Please correct me if you think i am wrong on any of this .. Constantin is right, break the debt cycle now by voting NO, and force the EU to write down the banking debt (under the threat that we will default on the banking debt, and bring down the Euro).

Actually Cal 5% of that money is going to pay bank debt this year, the rest is plain ole vanilla overspending.
“f we do a simple counterfactual and magic away the €62.5 billion we have pumped into the banks, the projected deficit for 2012 would fall from €13.6 billion to €12.8 billion or 8.0% of GDP. Eliminating the effect of the bank payments would knock 5% off the deficit; 95% of next year’s deficit is not related to the bank payments.”
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/deficit-and-banks.html

Here’s the more balanced view.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78456715&postcount=101

Gary, you are correct, this year its only 5%, because the EU agreed that this year and this year alone, we should get an exception from the 3.5 billion ….. And guess what, this is the year we are being asked to vote on the treaty … They gave no exceptions for any other year, other than this one!!!!!! Please correct me if i am wrong.

Cal. You talking about the promissory notes payments? You know the ones we pay to IBRC(Anglo), which we own. Who then pay it to the central bank, which we own.

From Seamus Coffey
“This will be about 8% on the €22.5 billion of Promissory Notes that will be outstanding at that point. The 2014 interest bill on the Promissory Notes will be €1.8 billion.

However, it is important to realise what happens to this interest expenditure. It is not paid to a third party. The €1.8 billion of interest is paid to IBRC which is fully state owned. The IBRC then uses this to pay interest to the Central Bank of Ireland for the €45 billion of emergency funding it is accessing.

The interest becomes a surplus for the CBoI which will return it to the Exchequer in its annual return. I’m not saying that all of the interest will travel the full circle but there will be very little interest payments outside that circle.

The IBRC has liabilities of around €55 billion and €45 billion of that is to the Central Bank. If the interest does not make it around the circle it will be used to repay the liabilities of the ‘bank’ which in the main are to the Central Bank of Ireland.”

7 billion of the overspend is now due to interest payments. We only raise 39 billion a year in taxes.

How long will be before the entire 39 billion is going to interest payments alone?

The process of reducing our debt to 60% of GDP will be a gradual process, happening over many years. Ireland will not have to begin this process until 2019.

Economic growth can be expected to do a lot of the heavy lifting. In the 1990s, we reduced our debt-to-GDP ratio from 95% to 35% through economic growth. This is what we need to do again.

Reducing our debt ratio is in our own interests irrespective of this Treaty. Otherwise, we will continue to spend a huge amount of our taxation revenue (20% at present) paying interest on our national debt, when it could be spent on schools and hospitals.

*have

Here it is again, economic growth will solve all our problems.

First of all, that’s not the plan. The austerity policy will kill any chance of growth.

Secondly, the forces that led to the dramatic Irish economic growth in the early 90s – chiefly globalization – are unlikely to be repeated. We will benefit from a global turn-around, but not to the level seen in the 90s. That was a once-off driven by a specific set of economic circumstances. Where is this growth going to come from?

TLDR

I can’t avail of low corporate tax because I’m a guy, not a company.

*Puzzled expression*

Best of luck with the treaty so!

Impartial, you look for a argument for the no vote then when you get it you say it’s too long, didn’t/don’t read.

Aidan, I am well aware of the difference and it’s pretty immature to claim I don’t in a smart kind of way. What I am suggesting is, when IBM and Google and all the other global companies come out and claim we should vote YES it’s pretty clear to understand why they are urging a yes vote. They are availing of extremely low tax rates which they don’t want to see jeopardised. I am all for FDI, but more for an open, un-bias and transparent debate. This is a nations future, not Googles!

Well at least you are honest Dermot…. Lets say it clear then…If SF and ULA get their way the corporation tax will be increased….
Which will mean that thousands and thousands of Irish jobs will go…..
I actually kinda think SF want this to happen….

Just to clarify also I would never vote sf and I also am more centre right than centre left inclined, but, I can’t let my political leanings overshadow a deeply moral obligation to this nations future sovereignty.

To clarify – the question I’ve been asking is this:

“When is the no side going to present the people of Ireland with a comprehensive set of proposals about how we fund schools, hospitals, social welfare, dole etc. if we vote no.”

Diarmuid’s answer doesn’t do that – not even close. Not his fault, I didn’t direct the question at him but someone on the no side needs to get off their butt and do it. It’s irresponsible to mislead people.

@ IE. Proposeals have been put forward to close the gap by the no side, so stop being so dishonest please.

Lol, Joe Higgins’s wealth tax??

Come on, be serious!

@Impartial, thanks for the question. I will answer it. Europe will provide money to us whether we vote yes or no. It’s very simple. Let’s take the scenario that we vote no and are locked out of the esm. We start running out of money. Do you honestly believe after all the pandering we have done to the IMF and all the money we now “owe” them that they will let us default? That means none of them get anything back!

Let me be very clear. Europe will provide us with a backstop as long as it is in their interest to provide us with one. Let’s look at their history. Greece in effect gave them two fingers and are still getting funding. Is this because Frau Merkel is feeling somewhat philanthropic? No, it’s because if a fellow Euro Zone country defaults or is even at risk of doing same, Europe will feel it just as hard as that country does.

What’s the moral of the story? Stop believing that European politicians are “bailing us out”. We are being provided with loans that must be paid back with interest higher than that of inflation, ie. they are making a profit off our misery. Why? Because they HAVE TO!

Ireland has no history of borrowing beyond its means. Have we all forgotten that a dodgy bank and a stupid decision in the middle of a Septembers eve is what has our debt levels through the roof and our economy in tatters. If all we had to deal with was plugging a gap in the states finances we wouldn’t have even needed a supposed “bailout”.

The Yes side will tell you their vote gives you certainty. The only certainty that Europe has provided anyone with over the last 4 years is that Europe will trample on anyone to get their money back. By voting No you are ensuring we are worth alot more to Europe than they will let you believe. Don’t get sucked in by the scaremongers or the Google BS, or by the farmers looking to offload a few burgers. Cast your mind over what has happened over the last 4 years and use common sense! We do not need this treaty!

@ Declan:
“Well at least you are honest Dermot…. Lets say it clear then…If SF and ULA get their way the corporation tax will be increased…”
The Yes camp let their guard down last night and I quote … “We need more tax harmonisation”
The Yes camp gave a direct quote from Sarkozy, who also said in the same sentence that he wanted Ireland to increase its corporation tax rate so that its more in line with the rest of Europe ….
Come on man, get a grip on reality, and admit you camp would sell Irelands best reason for Multi-Nationals to stay here at the drop of a hat (for another scratch behind the ear).
SF are the only party that have stated 100% that Irelands corporation Tax rate is not even on the table for discussion.

@ IE. So, you say nobody on the left has ideas, yet when they’re quoted to you you post ‘LO’. Ooooohhh What a fine debater you are, everybody should really pay attention to what you have to say. There are more ideas than a wealth tax.

Cal,

I have said it several occasions. Dont address me on this forum.

Thanks

How come Noonan and all the other FG heads like Declan Cotter can’t handle debate?

All they want to do is bury their heads in the sand and keep shouting the same tired message.

“Austerity hasn’t worked yet, we need more austerity”. Cop on.

TT, tell me the bloody proposals! Post a link, make an effort!! Jeez, what do you expect?? You say, there are proposals! You think I won’t ask?

AGAIN, TELL ME WHAT THE PROPOSALS ARE!

Here’s a quote, and a link for you:

“So if European leaders really wanted to save the euro they would be looking for an alternative course. And the shape of such an alternative is actually fairly clear. The Continent needs more expansionary monetary policies, in the form of a willingness — an announced willingness — on the part of the European Central Bank to accept somewhat higher inflation; it needs more expansionary fiscal policies, in the form of budgets in Germany that offset austerity in Spain and other troubled nations around the Continent’s periphery, rather than reinforcing it. Even with such policies, the peripheral nations would face years of hard times. But at least there would be some hope of recovery. ”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

The solution to this European crisis will not be found in Ireland alone.

If we don’t want to save the euro, then let’s call it, and start the exit process. We’re arguing about who gets the first class seats on a train that’s heading off the cliff, instead of addressing the real issues.

Censored…
I ant not conatct of any type with the person to which you are referring.
With regards debate, I am happy to debate in a reasoned and articulate fashion with anyone. However this website is infested with people who shout abuse or have obvious polical agendas. What wil eventually happen is that you will have all of journal.ie to yourselfs and the rest of Ireland will just truck on.

Without addressing anyone in particular ;) If you on the YES side of the debate can’t debate anything without resorting to calling someone a “Shinner Bot” or a ‘leftie’, or suggesting anyone who puts forward a succinct point backed up with facts, after a general challenge was thrown out to anyone to justify in monetary terms why voting YES is such a bad idea, then maybe you shouldn’t be on this site. I personally, am not a member of SF, i have stated that many many times, and I also work for a Multi-National company. I am currently supporting SF’s economic policy from both a “Me Fein” point of view, because SF are the only party that have stated that corporation Tax is not even up for discussion … The Yes side on Vincent Browne let themselves down a bagful last night. They stated live on television, they supported EU Tax harmonisation. Which also happens to be one of Sarkozys mantras to get Ireland to increase its corporation tax rate. I happen to understand fully, that the Multi-Nationals in this country will walk out of Ireland, if the Irish government surrender the tax rate to the French. I am also a realist, as in my understanding that if SF get into power at the next election, that i personally will be in the new 3rd rate tax band on all earnings over 100k per year. I accept this, i don’t like it, but i know the money to fund the services like Gardai, Nurses etc must come from somewhere. Therefore, people earning more than 100k should accept that. In the short term (2-3 years), yes we will have to take more austerity than if we vote yes, but in the longer term, we will have our sovereignty, our sense of pride, but most importantly, we will have forced the EU to take the banking debt off our National debt book … SF will force the EU to either dress up the banking default the same way they did it for the Greeks, or the EU will face an extremely messy default, causing the EURO currency to collapse. If anyone can point to a flaw in my argument, and not just an emotive, name calling response, i would love to hear it.

Gonna tell us what you think of the treaty?

I am not an educated man,,read the odd book..I know in my heart and soul to vote YES to this treaty and were financial institutions of Europe is totally wrong…the same way only a couple of years ago a 3 bedroom semi detached houes in Coolock was valued at nearly half a million Euros and we were queing up to buy them.The dogs in the street new that something was wrong.Lisbon treaty,Vote till we get it right??? the nice treaty still dont know what that was about.Bailouts?
They are not! They are loans that banks and certain financial institutions are making a fortune from this….What happened to a bit of COMMON SENSE.O!I read the treaty it could mean anything a half decent solictor would want it to.

I’m not an economist David, or a politician, but I’ll tell you what I think.

Of course we will have to get our debt in line at some stage, clearly.
But that’s going to take time, and fining us more money because we can’t get our debts in line is stupid and counter intuitive!
It’s like taking a family that’s struggling hard to pay it’s debts, saying to them “Well you’re obviously struggling with your debts, here’s a €10,000 fine….”

Dev used to look into his “heart and soul” to tell us what Ireland needed.

Look how that turned out…..

Yes David, and FFg on the debate on Tuesday night stood shoulder to shoulder with that same party, to tell us to look into our hearts and trust you… For the love of God man, are you put in here by SF to act as the worst possible scenario for the Government, in order to get people to vote no??? Or are you really that thick to equate Dev and his party as a reason tovote one way or the other … because we trusted FF, and we saw where that got us… and now FF are advocating the same as you guys… so, logically, you guys MUST be wrong in FFg.

But he is not being paid by the Government, so his opinion doesn’t count :D Constantin has not missed a beat on any aspect of this crises going as far back as 2006… He was constantly accurate on his predictions when appearing on VB for the last 7 years… But i am sure the government supporters are going to make some sort of slanderous accusations against him … Watch all the red thumbs i get from them ;)

Constantin Gurdgiev – A No Vote In Ireland Could Be a Trump Card.

http://stgeorgewest.blogspot.com/2012/04/constantin-gurdgiev-no-vote-in-ireland.html?m=1

I could care less what constantin says…He is making a packet off this stuff…On every TV or Radio show that will listen…all free of charge I am sure…On top of his huge salary in his cushy University Job. Anyways on balance the vast majority of independent economist are suggesting a Yes vote..

Interestedly Sean that supposed quote from Constantin Gurdgiev appears on Inforwars and Indymedia, and other conspiracy minded websites. You’ll forgive me if I take it with a large pinch of salt.

@ Gary Constatin said as much on his twitter. The words did come from his mouth. Infowars merely quoted him.

So did he actually say that or “said as much” as it? Because one means he actually said it and the other means he might have said something like it. Which is it? And no doubt it’ll still be on twitter for us to be shown it.

Karl Whelan: what part of “We get no funding if we vote no” does Mary Lou not understand?

@Gary here’s him saying it. In his own voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERO98hnv5Z4

“Even for the deficit hawk like myself, the Fiscal Pact is equivalent to an economic suicide. The Pact formula of 3%-0.5%-60% is a combination of the already failed Stability and Growth Pact targets enriched with the lethally obscure and totally unattainable 0.5% structural deficit limit.

Between 1990 and 2008 – in other words, before the crisis hit – Ireland was able to satisfy the 0.5% structural deficit target only once in very 10 years, same as Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain never once satisfied this criterion. Two best performers in the euro area – Malta and Finland have met the target in 6 out of the 19 pre-crisis years. In terms of 0.5% structural deficit rule, all member states, except Germany will require further austerity measures.”
Constantin Guergiev (Source: True Economics)

@ IE: What part of Constantin Gurgdiev stating it is inconceivable that europe would not assist us do YOU not understand. Or do you think cherrypicking soundbites from people who happen to agree with you proves a point somehow??

Gurdgiev can’t tell us for sure or at what cost? Or did he give figures? No…. Prove me wrong if you can.

Well thanks Sean at least it appears he did actually say it. Of course that sound-bite is not the only thing he had to say. It’s fair to say we’re in a tricky spot and the treaty is still the only/best option we have. It’s not perfect but on balance I think people will vote yes.

@ IE. Nobody knows, including you. So please don’t act like you have the information yourself, its embarrasing.

@ Gary,you are supporting a government who is complicit in threatening and blackmailing our people.

“As we are already seeing with Spain, if the pain of spending cuts is deemed too much for the electorate to take, politicians will simply ignore the targets and carry on regardless. The same goes for any other European country that expects to breach the guidelines.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/offshorefinance/9126076/Forex-focus-will-fiscal-compact-save-the-euro.html

Except Ireland apparently.

come now, do you think Kenny and FG will grow a spine overnight and actually voice their concerns about a treaty we’re voting on may not be the actual treaty which comes into force?
Merkel is watching, she would disprove of enda being so rebellious

Iam….what a rubbish statement….

I must say that even in light of much information and plentiful debating on tv/radio.
Who am I to believe???

Believe in your instinct, believe in all the lies your government have told you in the past. Remember ‘Yes For Lisbon Yes For Jobs? Remember the Five Point Plan? Believe in yourself, your future, the next generation, whats left of our sovereignty, Ireland…because they don’t !

A read of Naomi Klein’s, “The Shock Doctrine” would be helpful for anybody unsure of how to vote.

Heres a neat video to explain it all.

The Stability Treaty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3HAw43lEyI

Always remember its in politicians nature to look after themselves and there little club first and foremost then look after the next little social club next and then they look after the country and people last. This is a fact and it always has been the way. VOTE NO and don’t protect there obscene wages and perks cause that’s there priority. Lets take our country back and start again with hard work!

Ciaran, would you not agree that Sinn Fein are “lying, self serving, Irish politicians and traitors?” I think that voting on the treaty should be based on your own views after reading the treaty, not party politics. We are in a very frightening economic situation, that is not “scaremongering” that is a fact. I’ve read the treaty and listened to as many economists’ perspectives as I can find, that is how I made my mind up how to vote. Also, it is not an austerity treaty, austerity is necessary for the next ten years to get rid of our 120% deficit, one way or the other. If we vote Yes we have the security of loans from the ESM, if we vote No then there will be no one to lend to us should we need a second bailout – meaning that we will have to have even greater control of our finances and so more austerity.

@ Ciaran Brennan

You are right to distrust what politician’s are saying.

Simon Coveney said again last night that the Fiscal ‘Straightjacket’ is to ensure ‘that we won’t get into this mess again’.

It is a flat out lie that the crisis was caused by governments’ overspending & debt. It is only true, and then only partially, for one country – Greece, aided & abetted in hiding the true state of their public borrowing by Goldman Sachs (widely reported).

The cause everywhere else was massive credit issuance by banks to inflate a property/asset bubble. When it could be expanded no longer, it burst & the ‘credit crunch’ that followed crashed the real economy in the US & Europe.

This treaty does absolutely nothing to prevent such debt expansion to no productive purpose happening again.

What the treaty does do is double down on the mistakes made in the 4 years since – the austerity policies that are now killing growth & causing recession all over Europe & even in Germany itself.

Ireland has no job, in reality (not understated ‘official’ statistics) for 1 person in every 5. The policies & thinking behind this treaty are only going to make things worse, & all over Europe (our exports ‘rebound’ will not be sustained).

Quite apart from the misery of those families directly affected, the loss of wealth forgone, goods & services not produced by this enforced idelness, is in the €10s of billions PER YEAR, just for Ireland. Prosperity, housing, health service, education, roads & all the rest, investments LOST FOREVER.

Except, of course, for the top few percent, whose personal is still rising by ~ 5% per year, according to bankers at Merill Lynch. (Which includes political leaders, senior economists, & bankers themselves, among all the others.)

The Eurozone system is fundamentally flawed – by design – to deal with any downturns in the natural economy wide ‘business cycle’. Because when this occurs, it is the government sector that picks up the spending gap from rising unemployment (reducing GDP/spending) which increases deficits. The increased spending on unemployment benefits is an ‘automatic stabiliser’. But both this & the reduced tax income require increased deficits for the period until the economy picks up again.

But as the Eurozone is constructed, where countries must borrow from private markets, this pushes up the cost (interest rates) of gov borrowing at the very time they can least afford it, in a vicious cycle.

In countries that have their own currency, like UK, US, the opposite happens. These governments control their own borrowing interest rates & push these down in times like this. Their debt rises, as it needs to do, to stabilise & prevent further contraction & job losses &, ideally, spend a little more to stimulate their economy back to growth. The US made a small stimulus & it’s helped a lot to reduce the depth of recession (it actually returned them to growth until they stopped it). The gov debt went up, but their borrowing costs remain on the floor. They could have done more, were it not for the ideological ‘small government’ insanity of Republicans & even many Democrats.

But rather than address this basic flaw in the Euro system, this treaty seeks to make the flaw even worse!

The European Central Bank has just created €1,000 billion to lend to banks at 1% interest, whilst countries are forced to pay bond markets, 4, 5 & 6% – 4, 5, & 6 TIMES the cost.

After all the bank bail outs & now this, do we really need any more proof that the Euro system was designed entirely by & for the benefit of the banks, financial sector, & their wealthy apologists & hangers on?

Still not enough for you? How about this ‘ESM’ which is to be set up in Switzerland (outside the EU) to have no government oversight & even be beyond any legal process, in any jurisdiction, with the right to demand ANY sum from any signatory at 7 DAYS NOTICE. How does this have anything to do with our democratic interests? See here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU&feature=player_embedded

The mainstream politicians want to go along with all this because

1) they will still get their bloated salaries & guaranteed pensions & cosy ‘consultancies’ after leaving office – the ‘leaders’ particularly are part of the top few percent who’s wealth is +increasing+ relative to the rest of us

2) It is by far the easy option for them to just go along with it & let the financial sector tell them what to do.

3) There is NOT ONE OF THEM that understands +macro+ economics. Their ‘trade’ is telling lies, convincingly, to get votes (it’s called ‘PR’), not understanding anything. (But they are helped in not understanding by virtually the entire mainstream economics profession being ideologically ‘captured’ by the finance sector. Guess who pays most economists’ salaries, not to mention ‘consultancies’ for those in Universities?)

All this must be stopped, & politicians told in no uncertain terms we’ve had enough – austerity obviously doesn’t work, could not work, even in it’s own terms of reducing debt to GDP +ratio+.

Economic stability REQUIRES flexibility in gov debt, even if it is pretended that a (fiat) currency +issuer+ must borrow at all, from anyone, in order to spend, to make up the spending gap in a (private sector) downturn.

The Euro system needs to be radically reformed – or we need to leave.

VOTE NO to this irrelevant NON ‘Stability’ Treaty – we want the real problems addressed & not made worse into the future.

For more on +macro+ economics by an economist worthy of the title, see here:

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=19179

(There are many more posts there explaining the Euro/Austerity insanity.)

@Stray Mutt.
From one animal to another.
When these people commanded you, oops I mean advised you to sign up to the Lisbon Treaty, they promised jobs and prosperity as part of the EU.
What did we get?
Austerity, no real improvement in jobs, manipulation of unemployment figures, our children emigrating on mass. Etc etc..

So, when you hear more promises from the same people who made the last, dont believe what they say. Dont let them scare you into submission… they will be fine you see, they have lots of loot and well feathered nests.

Hi Jo Ann. I totally agree that Sinn Fein are no better than the rest of them, most politicians are self serving liars and traitors. I am making my decision based completely on what I feel myself to be the right thing to do. It is the people who care about Ireland and our children, politicians don’t care less and betray us every time, they are beneath my contempt!

The Fiscal Treaty is a treaty of debt! Governments will be required to pay back any capital call on them to repay their debts within 7 days, unbelievable! The ESM can stock up their magical 700 billion credit at will, more debt upon debt that we have no choice but to pay even if we didn’t receive it! The ESM will gain full legal immunity and be an untouchable power, a complete power upon themselves. If we don’t hit EU targets, unelected EU dictators will take complete control over our affairs. These are the same people who told us to have bank bail-outs, what will be next? We may be in a frightening economic situation but instead of tying ourselves to deeper austerity for the next 20 yrs, we need politicians with balls who care about the people, not their pensions or friends in the European Peoples Party. Sadly we live on an island where politicians are voted into power because of posters and bloodlines, so we the people must force change and wake up! These same politicians were using Iceland as an example of what would happen to us if we forsaked Europe. Funnily enough, Icelanders stood up to their government, stopped believing the spin and lies, stopped feeling guilt about debt they didn’t cause, jailed over 100 bankers for fraud and told their debtors to ‘f’ off! How are Iceland today? Starting to do very well actually. Jo Ann, just like you (but unlike the vast majority who vote yes every time in European treaties) I tend to read treaties before I vote for them, I don’t make a habit of repeating political soundbites. I will be voting NO, and almost everybody I have met recently will be voting NO also, despite what RTE would like you believe.

@Mike, very well wrote Mike. Possibly the best comment I have read here today. Totally agree!!

Hi Ciaran, glad to hear you’re voting based on your own research. I totally agree with you on the bankers, but disagree that this treaty will bring the change we need. If we vote No our debt will still be there, but our safety net won’t. And you’re right in that the treaty doesn’t really do anything to fix the huge problems in Europe. What it will do is make the euro more stable.

The unemployment rates in Ireland are terrible, but the job creation that is happening – 500 new jobs in Apple, 1,000 in new jobs in Paypal – would not happen, in my opinion, if we weren’t the only English speaking country within the euro. I also would question why technology companies like Google and Facebook would continue to make Ireland their base in Europe if Ireland distanced itself from the rest of Europe.

I’ll be voting Yes in the hope that after this treaty we will remain in the euro and that further, much better and more progressive, policy changes will happen within Europe over the next few years. I can completely understand your reasons for voting No and I absolutely agree that there are huge problems within the European Union model; I am really interested to hear what your alternative to Europe is and where you think job creation would come from if we were not in the euro/part of the EU?

@JO-Ann or whoever you are (Fake Facebook account seems odd) I genuinely do not see anything in the treaty that encourages stability, what I do see is terrifyingly new powers and control handed over to unelected dictators in Europe. Apple and PayPal are here because of our low corporation rates and geographical location, a corporation tax rate that your EU darlings have endeavored to destroy at every opportunity and will eventually. Everyone speaks English these days, multinationals dont move here because of our language he,he…doesn’t seem to bother DELL from relocating to Poland and India now does it? Our biggest trading partners are America and the UK, not Europe. Whilst I think the original idea of a common trading within the EEC was a good idea, the EU is now a political machine about with a federal agenda. I do not believe we should give away our sovereignty and powers anymore than we have naively done so already.

As for your comment about jobs, I’m not sure if you are joking or just seeking a reaction. What has being a member of the EU or voting yes in fiscal treaty got to do with job creation. How did all the YES FOR LISBON YES FOR JOBS thing go for Ireland’s unemployment rate? How is Spain’s membership of the EU counteracting its 23% unemployment rate? You do realize that for the 37 years Ireland has been a member of the EU, we have been in recession for 27 years!!!!

Whilst I respect your opinion and democratic right to vote yes (unlike our European overlords who refuse to accept democracy) to be honest I suspect by your political soundbites and political mantra and repeated propaganda you have a political agenda or an alliance to a party.

Have a nice day :)

@ Jo Ann. The safety net will still be there. The notion that eurpoe would put the €6 TRILLION eurozone at risk rather than lend to the one country obediently meeting its targets and paying its debts is so devoid of any credibility whatsoever that its laughable. The threat is empty, the gun at our heads has no bullets. Don’t be fooled by the blackmail clause.

@ Jo-Ann Enright

Please see my further post below & follow the links I’m giving.

There are REAL alternatives to the mess – assuming your interests lie with the majority of citizens, not the wealthy elites who designed the present system to milk us.

This referendum is our (slim) opportunity to re-assert our democratic rights.

Please reconsider your voting intentions.

Vote yes or else ;) http://www.voteno.ie/article/vote-yes-or-else

@Too Trueleft They won’t put the Eurozone in any risk, but they have no reason not to leave Ireland out of it. This treaty will go ahead with or without us. I definitely do no think this is the best solution for Ireland, just better than the alternative.
@Ciaran my Facebook is not fake, just private! Also, like I said I totally agree with all your criticism on the Eurozone I just think a No vote needs to go hand in hand with a better solution, which at the moment it does not. As we are such a small country I think it would be naïve to think we would be fine on our own without Europe, without a bailout safety net and with no alternative plan. Have a nice day also.

@Mike Hall I absolutely agree with all your concerns about Europe, I just believe it is the better option for us now. What do you think voting No will result in really? Besides us being out of ESM and quite possibly in the near future out of euro.

@Mike This referendum is indeed our ( very slim) opportunity to re-assert our democratic rights, but then again look at where democracy has got us and them in the past. If democracy worked, truly worked, they would probably outlaw it anyway. Forgive me for not replying to you in length earlier, but I thoroughly agree with everything you wrote here today. You pretty much sum it all up for the undecided or blissfully ignorant.

Ciaran: What’s your source for your assertion that Iceland has jailed over a 100 bankers?

It hasn’t. Iceland’s prosecutor has begun proceedings against a number of bankers a few weeks ago and has about a 100 cases on its books according to this article.

http://www.todayonline.com/Commentary/EDC120407-0000003/Recovery-and-reconciliation-in-Iceland

But, that’s not the same as writing that Iceland has jailed over a 100 bankers.

I love it how the No campaigners spout lies.

Ciaran: I love it how your Euro skepticism and euro contempt often gets the better of you. In point of fact, the EU minus the UK is the Republic of Ireland’s largest trading partner, accounting for about half of all our external trade.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0417/breaking18.html

@ JO Ann, thanks o the myopia and arrogance f the oiginal creators of the Euro, there is no facility for leaving it or being removed. We cannot be ‘left out’.

@Too Trueleft I’m not sure where you got that information from but it is not correct. There is discussion of Greece leaving the Euro right now and there is every possibility that Ireland could too, in the future, if we vote No. It is very likely that a No vote would result in sovereign default. And it is equally likely that if we vote No there will be another treaty drawn up that does not include Ireland that will set up an ESM fund for the rest of Europe. If there is no money there for a bailout, if it was needed, that equals economic collapse.

@Paul Carr ” Iceland’s prosecutor has begun proceedings against a number of bankers a few weeks ago and has about a 100 cases on its books according to this article.” Same difference, proceedings have been brought so hopefully 100 will be jailed. How many bankers have your heroes in the Irish government issued proceedings against Paul?

Of Ireland’s top five trade partners, the US, the UK, Belgium, Germany and France, trade with the US is expanding at the fastest pace. It is anticipated pharmaceutical exports to the US will increase at an annualised rate of 11 per cent over the next 15 years to $1.7 billion (€1.24 billion), while exports in the agri business sector will grow at a rate of 6.15 per cent a year.

Based on HSBC’s predictions, by 2025 trade volumes with the US will hit $43.3 billion, overtaking trade to the UK, which will have risen to $42.7 billion.

I actually have no problem with trade agreements within Europe, why would anyone of sane mind be against that? What has that got to do with anything? I was merely responding to the absurd suggestion that Ireland needs the EU and Fiscal treaty for creating employment. I’m all for the original idea of Europe actually, but not what it has become.

“Ciaran: I love it how your Euro skepticism and euro contempt often gets the better of you”…. ‘often’ Paul I joined Twitter today on the advise that it would promote my music website with regards to SEO. This is the first time I have posted on this forum, perhaps you are confusing me with someone else of common sense ;)

Rather than being pedantic, could you tell us why you are voting yes for the Treaty?

Jo Ann, there’s no guarantee we will get funds from the ESM even if we do vote yes!
If Spain needs it, there won’t be enough for us, we will have fronted money we don’t have, we will be obliged to front up more whenever required on 7 days notice and we will incur massive penalties of we can’t. Oh, and there’s no legal recourse..
That’s a great reason to vote yes!

@ JoAnn (or whoever you really are) You seem to have the naive brainwashed mantra of junior member FGs, who are you really you rascal? ;)

“there is every possibility that Ireland could too, in the future, if we vote No. It is very likely that a No vote would result in sovereign default”

Explain how please, this should be fun )))))))

Ha, you guys don’t get it do you, insulting our intellect and scaring us doesn’t work anymore. People are finally waking up to the lies and BS JoAnne. You personally were telling us earlier that multinationals are here just because we speak English and that we need the EU for jobs :D Now you are threatening us with expulsion from the EU if we vote no….too funny :)

@ Jo-Ann Enright

“What do you think voting No will result in really? Besides us being out of ESM and quite possibly in the near future out of euro.”

The no vote is hugely important to tell our politicians to think again & think about +all+ the issues, most especially reversing the austerity policy which is now damaging all of Europe.

The treaty addresses precisely nothing of the immediate problems & would not have prevented the crisis in the first place. It is an ideologically driven construct being opportunistically forced on Europe to destroy the social model that elites, especially in the US (where many economics ‘advisers’ have trained), hate with a passion. This has been 3 decades in the making.

There is already a growing ‘push back’ from citizens to the ruinous policies (for the majority, that is, not the few). Witness the vote in France, the Dutch government falling. Spain cannot endure much more.

The EU does not want any country to exit the Euro in the present highly fragile circumstances. Fragile economies, but far more threatening is the fragile banking system. Banks have made derivative bets against each others’ debts (the ‘CDS’ & other instruments). Even one modest sized institution going bust would crash the whole system in a domino effect. This is why they wouldn’t let Greece go & spent months negotiating some debt write down that would not ‘formally’ be a default & trigger the derivatives. (That banks are still permitted to do this, ensuring they will always be bailed out, regardless of their risky behaviour is another unaddressed issue.) But note, Greece’s second ‘bail out’ & doubled down austerity is already failing.

This means that any individual country has huge bargaining power. (You must also understand that any country reverting to its own currency +issuance+ need borrow from no one to recover its economy.)

But we are not alone anyway, at least as regards other countries’ citizens’ views.

Under the present policies, the Eurozone is looking at a decade or more of stagnation or further recession, in near all countries, including Germany. And there is high risk of the Eurozone breaking up anyway throughout this period. Spain, a large economy, cannot endure 1 in 4 unemployed (1 in 2 young people) for very much longer.

It is highly irresponsible of authorities not to address this & fundamentally rethink. ‘Stability’ treaty is simply Orwellian !

So, if we vote no, the EU authorities will have to deal with us & it will hopefully encourage others to bring the financial elites driving this mess to the negotiating table.

The ESM is such an undemocratic blank cheque (our cheque!) that it should be voted against anyway.

There is some recognition, in rhetoric, recently, that authorities realise we must have growth. Growth will not happen without policies that increase the money available for aggregate spending in consumption & investment. It is that simple. Voting no increases the likelyhood we, in collaboration with others can get real policies to do this.

In short, the sky will not fall, the authorities will not let it fall & we have the right to excercise our democratic wishes. Either way, we have options that whilst not pain free, are infinitely better than what is being forced down our throats now & in the long term even worse.

@Ciaran – you’re having a laugh if you think that any multinational organisation, that could invest anywhere in the world, would invest in Ireland if the economy collapsed. Have you been reading anything our leading economists have to say? Also, I’ve never voted for FG in my life, the economic situation does frighten me though and while the treaty isn’t great the fact of the matter is a Yes vote will bring more stability than a No vote, I rather like living here and having a job and I hope to continue to do so. Not that I should have to explain myself or why I would want to comment, you rascal!

@ShantiOm – I never said it was the best insurance policy for us, but at the moment it is our only one. Like I said earlier if anyone has a better plan that would actually work I am all for it!

A No vote to the Fiscal Compact will not lead to economic collapse.

While it’s possible that a yes Vote will not lead to economic collapse, it also means continuing the EU policies of the past 5 years. Many economists believe these policies are seriously flawed and need to be changed. After 5 years of trying the same thing, perhaps we should be more open to the possibility that it’s not working?

Ciaran. All of you lunatics are the same. Actually read over your post about dictators in Europe. How on earth can anyone accuse the Yes campaign of scaremongering. The language you use is pathetic and avoids any discussion of anything of relevance.

Jesus, that sounds like something the No side would say if they were campaigning for a yes vote. What a No vote would do is; 1) possibly restrict us from EU funding (I say possibly, because there is always a doubt in peoples minds that they feel they would need to anyway), 2) result in more austerity by way of paying for a bailout via higher interest rate and terms set by whoever gives us the money (including the EU), 3) puts jobs and investment at risk because the country is seen as unstable seeing as we rejected the notion of safer funding and better spending rules – wtf will Ireland do next? Will they survive? Are they reliable? etc.

You really think either side want you make up your mind.A state of fear is what they want.Read the treaty for yourself then make up your mind,ignore the threats and lies if you can.

Nail on the head there!

Nicely said Diarmaid

So lets just say we vote No to new rules governing our spending and access to a bailout. And lets just say Europe, who know they only need 12 countries behind the treaty anyway, say that “Arah, we forgive ya”

Do you think that They will give us a better deal than we currently have?

Or maybe they might look and say “Arah, we forgive ya but ya refused to abide by our spending rules so if you want access to the fund your gonna have to implement much more cuts and taxes. While your at it, we are gonna increase our interest rate.”

Sure, they technically need us to avoid a Eurzone crash. But they have the upperhand if we vote No. They can, by right, refuse us funding. But if they see that as risky (which one would assume they haven’t yet anyway, seeing as they came up with this idea) and believe we need funding either way from the EU – what’s to say they wont ask us to pay more for it, and inflict harsher cuts? Its what others would do outside of the EU if we went. Why not the EU? Its what they do as it is, and see it as working. What’s to stop them doing worse if we say No?

Use common sense indeed.

Kevin, you are totally missing the point. When Ireland owes europe hundreds of billions of euro privately and publicly, believe me, it’s Ireland who has the upper hand. They are counting the cents and the decimal % points to try ensure they get returns off every transaction they conduct. Do you really believe they are going to say “Era leave them default on a few billion here, a few billion there. Sher we only have a few hundred billion tied up in Ireland. Chicken feed really”. Seriously use common sense here and stop falling for the lies and scare mongering!

Id say you would be the exact person who would give out if the government didn’t attempt at communicating with you about the treaty. Damned if you do, damned if you dont!

Communicate? We saw a debate last night where a member of the government who tried to deny us a say on the treaty and then colluded to blackmail us with a gun to our heads, warn us over and over about the threat they’re complicit in creating.

Proud of your fascist little fine gael attempts to undermine our democratic rights Kevin?

They may well give us a second bailout, well at least they *might* do it. But at what cost? How many hoops will we we need to jump through?
If people want to play Russian roulette maybe they should just do that when it’s just them who might suffer.

Gary, your buddies in governemtn colluded to blackmail our people. I take it you support this if it gets the result you want?

buddies in government hahaha. I find it very revealing of the thought processes of many No voters that they assume if you disagree with them you must agree with the government.

You obviously agree Gary! Since you side stepped an answer! Can’t bring your self to say I do not agree with the government?

Ryan sorry if I wasn’t clear above. I often disagree with the government, the problem here is I usually disagree with the Vote no/anti-household charge/hard left crowd far more. I’ll happily admit I voted FG in the last election, but only as the least worst option, not because I’m a supporter.

Strange that Gary, I’m pretty sure I’ve only really seen you on thejournal.ie supporting everything the government does.

Say it Gary I dare you! Say “I do not agree with this government”

I wait and see how you side step this one. Party tricks 101, how to side step and never answer a direct question!

Too Trueleft. I’ll think you’ll find you’ve seen me criticising the Vote No Campaign/Anti-household charge/hard left rather than supporting the government. Again there us a difference. And the reason you’re more likely to see me against those things is the often way over the top things people have to say in here.
Ryan. Your little conspiracy is hi-larious but total nonsense.

Complete rubbish Eric… Talk about the Minister scaremongering…. dreadful stuff..

Come one now Declan, the EU have been stealing our babies for years, it’s a known fact.

In these rants people don’t see the obvious, while most of us would be very happy to see wage cuts and efficiencies in the public service, those cuts take money out of the economy, thus making the situation worse. (Not saying it shouldn’t happen though). Also the majority of the money we’ve borrowed was to fund day to day overspending. not any banks or bondholder.

How’s being at the heart of Europe and having a say on all things Europe where bigger countries don’t dictate to the rest Gary?….. you can answer me back when you’re done debating this German engineered treaty that includes a bully clause….ooops.

I’m sure you remember that this Fiscal Compact isn’t an EU treaty and in the real world (outside the EU) Germany and France and always bigger and more powerful than us.

I’m sure you remember that this Fiscal Compact isn’t an EU treaty and in the real world (outside the EU) Germany and France are always bigger and more powerful than us.

Yes Gary.
I also remember all the stuff FG told us about previous votes be it treaties or just general and local elections…(you know them yourself, yes for jobs, changing Irish politics, not one more red cent. I’ll fix them potholes for you Dermot once I get elected.. etc etc)…..why should I believe the lies this time round?

Instead of borrowing money to “burn” on wasteful bank debt servicing, and PS spending, we could have invested in some of the significant capital projects that have been cancelled.

That would have provided jobs and a real benefit to the economy. It’s a credible path to growth.

Instead, our leaders choose to make the “easy” cuts. The ones that only affect people who don’t have powerful lobbies protecting them.

What happened to all the money we’ve received from the “bailout” so far?

Actually there are a lot of EU citizens who are classified as Irish and can vote in referendums it is just the way the system has them stored. Always worth checking it out before you assume youre unable to vote.

Spot on. This would be the perfect opportunity for the government to fulfill their election mandate and tell Merkozy that the people they “represent” have spoken! we have shown our commitment to Europe but it hasn’t worked. We now need a debt write down not through trickery like Greece but necessity as we have no option due to lack of funding options. We will live within or means and not permanently under the thumb as is the intent of our “friends in Europe”.

Yes, and all the government have to do after a no vote is to say well we’ve taken everything off our nation they can give. Mention the words “debt write down” as no other option with no funding and watch them rewrite the law to stop that happening. Its not the first time.

today is the last day i believe to registrar online for a distant vote

Believe me I looked into that. I am only away for a couple of days on holidays. That form of vote doesn’t apply to me. Only for military and civil servants from what I have read.

Hear hear!! A failed experiment at the cost of the average citizens livelihood.

No to EUSSR
No to blackmail
No to the lies
No!

Really? If someone doesnt want to vote, it is their democratic right to do so.

It brings no additional austerity. You get austerity either way. You risk having much worse austerity if you vote No. That, is simple. Whatever else you want to debate about, fire away, but that in its own right is fact.

Em it’s not the same government. Not to state the obvious.

It is the same government, just a different logo.

I had despairingly come to the conclusion that nothing will change until all the current Dail incumbents are gone, and a new generation is in power. However, when I read the comments of young FG members such as David Higgins my heart sinks.

Funnily we repeatedly voted in the people who ramped up the pay in the first place. Didn’t seem we cared too much at the time. I suppose nothing like our own actions dropping us in the shíte to make us all care more.

So what? There’s no reason why we can’t change for the better.

No reason at all. But just cutting politicians pay, pensions and expenses isn’t going to do that. It’d hardly make a dent.

Gary, so you dont agree we should start at the Governments pay packets? Would you prefer to continue to cut the least well off?

No I don’t agree Cal, But I like to keep things in perspective.

Fair enough Gary. I think people are looking for leadership from the top though.

I know mike you were good on Eastenders tho !!!!

So I hear, and I haven’T aged a day!

I am not a leftist or a Sinn Fein supporter, far from it! Very easy to criticise a concise poll to suit your argument though I suppose!

Of course if you vote No your automatically a SF’er or leftist.BTW i voted Labour and FG in the last election won’t be doing that again.But have some respect for your fellow citizens.Alot of us are capable of making up our minds without the input of a party.

Diarmuid, a concise poll? Really? completely at odds with MRBI/RED C polls. And to clarify, I didn’t say everyone was SF/Left supporter here. Just most…

O’Reilly, according to the same polling companies, more than 50% of the people were going to pay the household charge … Yet, according to Journal.ie polls, they estimated less than 50%. I know they are not scientifically based polls, but at the same time, their polls have been much more accurate than the ‘recognised’ polls pout out by Government influenced media organisations like the Indo etc.

Cal. “This gives a total number of 921,101 household charge declarations made. Against an estimate of some 1.62 million residential properties liable to the household charge, this represents a registration rate of some 57%.”
http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2012/04/26/00144.asp
So it turns out the real polls were correct.

Gary, your numbers include all the residences that had waivers … it is still less than 50% who paid.. but don’t let the facts get in thew way of your argument, i like it ;)

Cal. Opinion polls show more than 50% willing to pay the household charge. Nearly 60% register to pay, but many are exempt. What’s incorrect about that?

What you are saying only proves their popularity has and is growing.

10 years ago that would be unheard of. It can’t possibly be because of their past acts and can only be down to their policies making sense and appealing to the electorate regardless of what mammy and daddy tell then.

I’m not a leftist or an SF supporter. I use my brain to assess the facts. You should try it O’Reilly.

Sean you are correct in a lot you say however you are asking for certainty from our own politicians & other eu politicians who have shown the only thing they dint know is certainty. So we in the know camp are certain that we know whats best.

Michael, there are many compelling arguements for voting no, many dealt with in this forum with varying degrees of coherence ranging from the economic, to the lack of trust in institutions as put forward by you and even the constitutional issues as advanced by Andy Storey and mentioned by another poster above. I do not expect absolute certainty from anyone on this. I (and many others) are taking a realistic view that if we are within a defined framework then maybe there is room to move to deal with the problems within that rather than being outside without a framework and hoping for the best.

Why?

Thats the problem borrowing,you can’t borrow your way out of debt we need a writedown or default,this treaty just reinforces the status quo.

That’s tight Norman. A default . Like Greece. Cos its worked wonders for them…

Well said. Regardless of whether there is a yes or no vote, the €14bn gap between spending on services going out will have to sorted. Either we stick with what we know, or worse terms from the EU if we are the exception to the membership by voting no, or we look into the unknown for a tougher deal. I can’t see anyone other than the EU rescue fund being the best on offer tbh.

The No side can’t and wont present figures on how to bridge the gap, insisting its not their job. Odd eh.

@ Kevin. Sinn fein have. Now I know young fine gael have to shout the same misinformation over and over again in the hopes that somebody will believe them, but the facts are there. Nobody is fooled by your mentors paying billions to unguaranteed bondholders while at the same time saying there is no money.

@ Enda. I notice you fail to mention that fine gael are the reason europe can put a gun to our head. They also have the power to remove the blackmail clause. They tried to avoid us having a say and then when it became apparent they might have to, they colluded with europe to blackmail Ireland.

Do you agree the blackmail clause should be removed so we can be allowed vote on the actual treaty democratically without being threatened?

Too True, you keep saying that but you have nothing to show us. No costings, no hard figures. Nothing.

Show us your proposals or stop wasting all of our time.

@ IE. Show me where we’re going to cut another 6 Billion to meet the terms of the fiscal compact PLUS find 11 Billion for our contribution to the ESM. Wheres YOUR costings and hard figures

Oh, and just off the top of my head. From this year alone, not pay unsecured bondholders 2.75Billion that we had no obligation to, a third rate of tax on high earners (c. .5 Billion), Not topping up wealthy peoples contributions to their pensions with taxpayers money (few hundred million there), investment in capital works from the NPRF of 3 Billion will bring back 2 billion in income taxes and vat, build the spirit of Ireland project with 1.5 Billion from the nprf taking 20,000 construction workers off the live register saving 400 million and on completion being able to sell 4 billion worth of electricity to the UK and europe per annum.

Thers 10 billion right there without the wealth tax you were sneering at.

Now….. wheres your ideas for the 6 billion cuts we’ll need to make it we sign up for the compact?

@too true left, i responded to your question about the ‘blackmail clause’ further up

I take it you missed the “@IE” at the start of my post?

Too Trueleft; Oh yeah sorry. I forgot Mary Lou was able to work that out in seconds using a pen and paper in the debate last night. Fair play, didn’t know running the government was so easily calculated. But her answer was some €13bn short. We will blame the calculator!!

TT, these figures are ridiculous. You really are getting them off the top of your head. For starters, a wealth tax won’t take in anything like those amounts. And even if it did, it would only be a once off. Taxing wealth has never worked. It just leads to flight of capital. Wanna mention capital controls? Don’t bother. We’re in a single currency in case you didn’t notice.

Re unsecured bondholders, yeah cool. Default worked so well for Greece, didn’t it? Look at their bond yields. They’ll be locked out of the bond markets for years.

This “not topping up wealthy peoples contributions to their pensions”…. where does this come from? How many people? What’s the cut-off for definitions of who is wealthy and who isn’t?

Please explain to me how in one year, we could get such a massive project as Spirit of Ireland up and running and suddenly employing so many people? (20,000 workers won’t save 400m in year one anyway!). Do we skip planning permission? EIS phase etc? How long will it last? What happens when they finish?

You have 20,000 workers paying 2bn in tax? That’s 100,000 euro in tax. Per worker. Per year. How much will you be paying them? And what are you smoking?

Did you think I wouldn’t notice that the 4 billion of electricity we’d be exporting (got a link for that?) wouldn’t accrue in year one. Yet you added it in in year one? Jesus wept….!

You claim you’ve raised 10bn. I’ve just shown that to be a lie. But even if it wasn’t, we’d still be short of money. How do we make up the shortfall?

Taking money from the NPRF is only a once-off. It’s not a bottomless pit that will always be there every year. What happens when it runs out?

So, your figures for year one are a joke. You need to fix your year one figures (heh heh) and do the same for the subsequent years.

Ach, there’s way more but I couldn’t be bothered.

Don’t post crap like that here again.

@ IE. Don’t accuse me of lying and then have to misrepresent what I said. Who’s really being dishonest in that case?

“You have 20,000 workers paying 2bn in tax? That’s 100,000 euro in tax. Per worker. Per year.

I never said any such thing. My figure of 2bn was the tax and vat return of a 3bn capital project investment.

My figure for teh 20,000 workers is 400 million. Thats using the standard figure of each prson on the dole costing the exchequer 20,000 between welfare payments and loss in income tax revenue and usc. €20,000 times 20,000 workers equals €400 million. And thats a conservative estimate as it does not include the knock on jobs created by putting an extra couple of hundred million back into 20,000 familys pockets to spend, which creates even more vat, usc and direct/indirect income tax

We keeping up here? Good.

Now when you invest €1bn from the nprf on jobs it does not disappear from the economy the way your pals handing twice that over to unsecured bondholders does. You get the vast majority back in direct and indirect taxation into the exchequer to bridge the gap in the soverign.

I could go on but your little hissy fits and name calling has gone from laughable to boring an I could use a nap anyways.

Oh, and don’t call people liars and then dishonestly misrepresent what they say, the irony is too much to handle! Also, don’t tell people what to post and what not to post, especially given the calibre of your contributions around here.

By the way, do you have that explanation of where well find the 6 billion in cuts and 11 billion in cost that signing up for the fiscal compact and ESM is going to cost? I’ve asked you several times but can’t recall you answering….

Or maybe some of us were working earlier ;) Just on first break now …. Did you miss me :P

Come on….! These polls are a joke. People just vote, delete their cookies, vote, delete their cookies…..

I’d do it only I’m not that sad.

Huh??? How do you do that on an iPhone??

Ask Dave Higgins/South Dublin

aidan…don’t you need to be signed in to this site to vote….so how will deleting your cookies work?

Cookies aren’t just linked to signing up, sites will often leave cookies for things like this. Amazed anyone gets excited one way or another about a poll of this sort, though that can be an amusing distraction sometimes.

Internet options >>> delete browsing history.

Maybe it’s web form info that needs deleting but it works anyway.

We stop wasting money on over inflated PS pensions, salaries, lawyers and unnecessary SW payments (like universal child benefit).

We have to do this ANYWAY. We have to cut our cloth accordingly. At the moment we are cutting services that only hurt the vulnerable and we are protecting payments that insulate the overpaid and defend the indefensible

I am a blue blooded capitalist and even I can see the rank stupidity and unfairness of the current approach to bringing the budget deficit in line.

I was completely broke a few years ago. Work has been kind to me in the past few years. I pay a lot in tax and would happily pay more…….BUT only to protect and help the vulnerable

….not to repay bondholders, bail out foreign banks, pay out pensions at stupid levels and protect those who can’t be arsed working.

When I see our politicians take the hard decisions, stop lying and act like grown ups – I’ll vote ‘yes’

For now it’s a ‘no’

Do you seriously think that’ll balance our books? Even if it does, what about the huge bond redemptions in 2014 and 2015? Where will the money for them come from? They’ll be in addition to every day spending.

“When is the no side going to present the people of Ireland with a comprehensive set of proposals about how we fund schools, hospitals, social welfare, dole etc. if we vote no.”

Here’s one presented at the recent INET conference in Berlin.

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/04/18/the-modest-proposal-and-the-democratic-deficit/

It’s not rocket science, but you need to understand +macro+ economics IS NOT LIKE YOUR HOUSEHOLD.

If we are still going to pretend that a currency +issuing+ authority need ‘borrow’ from anyone in order to spend, the key is to have a re-mandated European Central Bank (ECB) to back a scheme where private bond markets cannot gouge big interest rate profits at the very time countries are most in need of finance.

IE, we need a government borrowing facility that works like that of the US or UK. They control their interest rates, not markets, & force them much lower, reducing both their own gov rates & those of any private borrowers inclined to help out & spend.

This enables much higher levels of debt to be sustainable, enabling the stimulus to be provided to restore growth. Without growth, as the last 4 years have proved (again) almost no amount of gov debt is sustainable. Austerity begets more austerity & growth either spirals down stagnates.

With such a massive financial crisis (caused entirely by the banking sector), austerity policies are going to cause the downward spiral & stagnation (high unemployment, reduced wages, services etc) for a very long time indeed – think decades, not years. Even Germany is going into recession. Austerity for us & Germany’s other trading partners means we buy less of their products. It’s a vicious circle of beggar-thy-neighbour.

Downturns are a natural part of the economic cycle, finance will always be needed to fill the spending gap.

The ECB just ‘created’ (+issued+) €1,000 billion to lend to banks at 1% interest – ie no ‘risk’ premium even tho’ many are clearly insolvent.

Whereas, countries get to gouged with a ‘risk’ premium in 4, 5, & 6% interest. Are Euro countries not viable. ‘going concerns’, where insolvent banks are?

Nonsensical. This is a scam perpetrated by the ECB & bankers (who caused the crisis) to rip off ordinary citizens & enrich themselves & their well paid ‘useful idiot’ politicians & economics ‘advisers’.

There is no other reason whatever for such ‘usury’ (read- robbery).

Moreover, the ECB is +issuer+ of ‘fiat’ currency. It could provide – ‘create’ – funds to stimulate the growth & employment we need with zero debt or cost to anyone.

For example, it could finance a ‘Job Guarantee’ or ‘Employer of Last Resort’ scheme to hire any unempolyed who wish to work.

These are not normal ‘jobs’. They must not ‘compete’ with normal employment. They must pay only a minimum wage & be tasked with social, community & charitable work not normally considered ‘affordable’. The key is the stimulus effect of their spending, which will start the ‘virtuous circle’ of the normal employers taking on workers again to meet the resulting increasing aggregate demand (spending).

This would quickly restore growth & (normal) employment. It is no more inflationary than the situation 5 years ago when all the people who’ve since lost their jobs were working.

This would give Euro countries time to address the fundamental flaws of the Euro system.

Don’t ever believe the bullsh1t mantra ‘There Is No Alternative’. THERE IS !

(Providing we can get ‘democracy’ to actually represent the interests of the majority, not just the wealthy financial sector & top few percent.)

Great, Mike. Now all that the no side needs to do is to bring that to Europe and get everyone to agree, EU, EC, ECB, 27 countries….

Good luck.

@ Impartial Eclipse

It’s not possible we could get anything worse than now.

Ireland’s politicians have negotiated NOTHING thus far, at any stage. They have even capitulated on the €3 billion per year ‘Promissary Notes’ payments – ‘debt’ actually owed to NO ONE, it was money created out thin air by our own central bank (under its franchise from the ECB). We could just refuse to pay it, nobody loses!!

People are up in arms about €100 of household charge.

The ‘Promissary Notes’ payments (to make good Anglo’s bondholders) is €750 per year from every man woman & child in the country!! To have the money just deleted in a computerised ledger !!

Lets have some honesty in politics – SEND OUT THE BILLS to every person & TELL THEM WHAT THE MONEY IS FOR.

Just think for a moment about what is said (& not said).

The growth predictions upon which the sustainability of our current debt position rests on a knife-edge, has just been halved again to 0.7 % for 2012. (This isn’t growth, it’s stagnation at best.)

The ‘plan’ is based on 2.4% in 2013. This figure is plucked out of thin air from ‘historical trends’ to quote Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Member Prof John McHale. What historical trends are applicable to this universal austerity in the worst crisis since the Great Depression? The man is a clown (but well salaried & pensioned)!

So, we will need a second ‘bail out’ – a LOAN, more DEBT.

But think on, if the debt we already have is not sustainable, HOW IS MORE GOING TO BE ?

If we sign up to the treaty & the ESM, we will have signed away ANY rights to negotiate. Terms will be dictated to us with no recourse whatever.

Have you not seen what has been done to Greece? What is being done to Spain?

If we don’t push back, that is what will be done to Ireland 2 or 3 years down the road. We have no general election due for another 3 years. There will be no ther opportunity to assert our rights bar getting 2 million of us on the streets & a general strike at a time when more damage will have been inflicted. 1 in 4 unemployed, 1 in 3 ? Think it can’t happen here? It IS happening in other Euro countries!

When is the yes side going to give it’ explanation of how we fund schools, hospitals, social welfare etc if we vote yes?

This is more scaremongering. The fiscal compact will not result in “free” money.

We are already paying back over 7 billion a year in interest alone, on the “bailout” money received so far. What was all this money spent on? Everyday I read about more cutbacks and financial problems in those services you listed.

Same for me, but not “rightly so” :-(

What do you mean? You’re not Irish?

Why?

Jeroen, It’s right that people who are not bound by citizenship to a republic have no say in the constitution of that republic. I can’t see an argument against that.

I think it would be better if after a certain amount of years, people who have moved to Ireland and been paying tax, would also have the ability to vote. I have been living in Ireland for 12 years now and I don’t intend to go back to The Netherlands.

What I don’t get, and correct me if I’m wrong, is that people from the UK living in Ireland are allowed to vote. Sure they are not bound by citizenship either.

Jeroen

EU Citizens can vote in Local and EU elections, UK Citizens can vote in Dail elections to reciprocate for the fact that Irish citizens can vote in similar UK elections. UK Citizens can’t vote in Constitutional or Senate matters.

If you’re not going back to the Netherlands and you want to vote in referendums why don’t you take Irish citizenship?

@ Ciaran, who should you blame, the conman or his victim?

Last election, we were lied to by people who conned their way into power. We did not vote based on ‘popular party politics’ the swing in support shows this to be a fact. We voted based on a promise of change and an end to the biggest injustice to befall the people in the history of our state.

Don’t blame the voter, blame the people who conned them and are now blackmailing them.

That was supposed to be in response to Normans question under Fionn O Deas post above… dunno why it appeared down here!

The point is we’ve tried it their way like good boys & girls. It hasn’t worked. more of of the same is madness. Debt write down and clean slate with tight rules and no strangle hold and punishment beatings. We will be in the markets quicker when investors see no noose around our necks. And I believe that is the overall goal??

@ Enda, of course it was a threat. The figures/ratios for the budget this year were agreed upon by FF with the troika at the start of the bailout program. The only control noonan has is how much of the austerity required to meet the predetermined figures is placed on the various sections of society. So, when he says he’ll make things much more severe, he’s threatening the people who cannot take any more austerity. Plain and simple.

Does that mean you won’t be checking back every 5 minutes to see how all us commies/shinners/lefties and assorted malcontents are getting on? ;)

The only thing at the moment that has made a difference was Noonans threat of a harsh budget.Wether he is right or wrong is irrelevant,the implied threat is enough to turn people again the treaty.Keep it up Noonan well done.

These polls are completely unscientific, they are only voted on by journal readers and posters and that is not a representative sample of the Irish voters.
Worse luck

Out of 27 countries only 12 yes votes is sufficient to ratify treaty. Less than 50%… Fundamentally flawed & unfair.

Your right David… In fact I think the Yes numbers have gone up since the last poll on journal.ie…Maybe someone could confirm??? From what I am hearing in work etc. there is a realisation after last nights debate that quite frankly SF an ULA really have no idea of where they will get funding and under what conditions…. Creditibility is even lower now than before. Think I will go with companies like Google and Intel and the people who actually create jobs and vote yes…. Mary Lou wants to basically pump money into construction of infrastructure again….More people working for the Goverment for money we dont have…
Pretty confident after last night that No side are in real trouble…. Maybe ye should get Declan Ganly on the case…

Question for Declan Cotter. Where did you see that Google and Intel are endorsing a ‘Yes’ vote?
I can’t find any mention of it in the online media.

Funny how david only believes the polls that tells him what he wants to hear, isn’t it??

Coddler,
Minister referred to it last night. Both of these companies were present at launch of Yes campaign.
D

Declan C,
I think you may be citing allies to the ‘Yes’ cause which don’t exist. Simon Coveney did not mention Intel last night on the TV3 debate and they were not present at the launch of the Yes campaign. I’m not too sure about Google.

It was mentioned last night by the minister that he had support at the launch of the ‘yes’ campaign from a host of companies. I need to check the exact quote but i can if you are being anal about it. Certainly he mentioned google, and paypal. Are you disputing in some way that TransGlobal companies are supporting this treaty?? Please dont go there.

Yes, I dispute that. Please point us to a press release from any of these companies indicating their support for this treaty.

@Too – if you’ve ever followed my election prediction posts you’ll find I’ve predicted that Sinn Féin will probably DOUBLE their seat numbers at the next election. When pundits called Martin McGuinness’s performance in the presidential election as “poor” I took the opposite view. SF managed to get a solid vote in ALL constituencies and in areas where they normally wouldn’t.

I personally disagree with their rise, but I accept it’s probably going to happen.

I ageee the official polls all seem to have different results from these type of Polls. But I wonder would that have anything to do with the bias of the media?

Really so our budgets put together by our government but only put into force once passed by EU commisson,this is good how?Thats just one of the many problems i have with this treaty.

BTW i have read the treaty already.I don’t need a leaflet from the government explaining it to me in a completely unbias way.

@Norman, have you any brighter ideas as to what we should do!? …..

@Impartial Eclipse

Show me yours or for that matter FG’s proposals.
The one clear pattern of yes voters all only have “where will we get the money from if we vote no” that is your argument, that’s as much as ye care to ponder it, where can we keep borrowing to pay back other debt.

The no argument is more valid in saying if we say no, we wont agree to these terms, ie. Show some balls of once.
That we will not be pinned into a constitutional binding that demands we continue paying back bond holders and paying between 5 -7Billion Euro annually on top of everything else to the ESM fund. ]
And yes, if we vote Yes we will have to bleeding borrow for all this as we have enough debt of our own to manage and “housekeeping” to get started on.

I will NOT vote on changing our precious Constitution for undemocratic bullies and their banking masters.
This is one of my duty’s as a Irish citizen and yours to protect the constitution from corruption and matters not in our nations best interests.