Pretty much my thoughts.

But the balance came down as a no, because we should be taking a lot more time to think about this, as the more people understand the macro economics, a resounding NO vote in the referendum on the present treaty offering would be inevitable anyway ;) (I hope!)

Here’s hoping is right. Let’s wait & see how he’ll behave once sworn in. Time will tell. I think our referendum should be suspended for the time being to see how things unfold.

Well if you look at the First Round result, over 50 % of french people voted for right-wing parties, so maybe they did but just dislike Serkoy ore then the Left

Couldn’t agree more Frank :)

But I would like to add that the whole crisis is not really about ‘left’ or ‘right’ politics in the way these terms are mostly understood these days. Nor is it about national interests.

The so-called left/right dog & pony show of modern electoral politics is purely there as a distraction to conceal where power really lies, which is the financial sector & other wealthy elites of the top few percent, who often, in fact, finance all of the 2 or 3 mainstream political parties & their leaders. (Either directly, or indirectly.)

It just so happens that the Eurozone wealthy elites are more powerful, politically & financially in Germany & one or two other countries (with support from UK’s powerful financial elites).

The ‘race to bottom’ & beggar-thy-neighbour policies are being applied in all countries, driven by an ideology of enrichment for the few, extracted from the masses. The ‘few’ are still profiting, increasing their wealth, despite the losss the rest of us are experiencing. As reports by bankers to the rich, on ‘High Net Worth Individuals’, amply demonstrate.

Hence the enormous rise of the ‘financialised’ economy over the last 15 years, both dwarfing & providing little or no useful purpose to the real, productive economy. Really, what use to us (the majority) is €700 trillion, 12 times global economic output, in financial derivative (gambling) ‘positions’? Answer, none, it’s purely extractive.

That is maybe what he wants. If Ireland votes no then they can say the treaty has changed lets have another vote. You know what their like….(FF)

Thats exactly what Will happen Aislinn.

Aislinn we’ll vote no to that one too! And again and again if necessary!

rodrigo I’m no expert but what you’re saying is not true, it could be changed without us re-voting on it. I think, so I’m open to correction.

I don’t agree…FG are in for a fall from a height – a very high fall at that…even Enda is not safe!!! Unless, of course, the Irish electorate are blinkered or just plain stupid.

I agree Dan. Enda’s got done fall alright, flat on his face!! And I’m looking forward to it!

I agree with you. FG are just FF in different clothes – but then – who do you elect (PLEASE don’t say ULA or any flavour of the looney left. It’s not that I’m against socialism (I love how they do it in Sweden) – I’m against any kind of fixed dogma and naivety – a la Joe Higgins/RBB.

We need some new thinking. None of the current crop of politicians are up to the job – most of them were there in “opposition” when the seeds of the crisis were sown and are just as guilty as Fianna Failed. The FF Youth and FG Youth look like more of the same. An alternative needs to be created.

This vote has nothing to do with a debt write down. We can still default after a YES vote.

What we can’t do after a NO vote is access the ESM and even with our debts restructured the deficit remains and we need that money to keep the country going.

You could even argue that a YES vote leans us closer to a debt write down as we need to get our debts below 60% of GDP.

The treaty doesn’t say you can’t use a write down to get there!!

@david higgins its ur poxy party that is stopping us from accessing the esm by allowing the blackmail clause to be put in place and we can easily get it removed and we wud have full access to that fund but kenny the plank wont do it and has refused to look for a debt write down as he PROMISED during the elections

Higgins FG. This vote has EVERYTHING to do with a debt write off. Your party hasn’t the balls to do anything except bow down to the Germans. Maybe a NO vote will make those clowns realise who voted them into Government and for what reason – “not a red cent”

David Higgins, your “analysis” is getting worse by the day.

Do you really believe that we can vote yes to “have access to the ESM” and still have a debt writedown?
The whole point of all this maneuvering is to avoid a debt writedown. Pretending that we have some kind of sneaky plan won’t cut it.

Or is it just that you’re facing up to reality a little bit and realizing that a default is inevitable?

People are deluded if they think Europe will let us into the ESM after rejecting the treaty!

People are deluded if they think “Europe” won’t give us access to the ESM to pay back our “bailout”

We are part of Europe by the way.

Great idea…. however Fianna Fail have consistently won elections by buying off the nation with offers of free stuff. We see where that has led us to. It’s a sad state of affairs that many of us would trust the Germans to run things here rather than our own. Of course this treaty doesn’t actually allow the Germans to run our budgets for all the nonsense being spouted.

the germans are telling us already, its called austerity, and we will have to keep cutting, but on their terms and having our governments pays not being cut they are of course going to do as told, if we vote no they will have to start at top to show, they keep saying we need this for garda, hospitals, nothing about where most of it goes, to them , there pensions, there numerous tds, to many for this size country to keep paying, but they will not be touched if yes vote goes through, they are scaremongers about their own pockets, why do u think ff, fg and labour together on this,, they could be one government the way they want it passed,,,, its not for the people , we will be beaten down again and again over next 20 years with taxes and new charges, its coming but it wont affect the top partying boys in politics, if they do as told

Absolutely ! They need to understand that we are not going to take sh1t any more. That the government really have to sit up and listen to us. Then they have to stand up and tell Europe to kcuf off.

Aint’ that the truth. We’ve seen that here time & time again & we are seeing it now from a certain opposition party. We’ll all just have to sit back a bit & see how it all pans out.

Agree totally. This ‘renegotiation’ will probably take the form of some non-binding statements appended to the treaty.
It’ll just be a PR exercise so that Hollande can save some face in France.
So we should carry on and vote on the agreement we’ve already been through, not what a politician in another country says on the campaign trail.

Would that be similar to FFg/Labour promises befgore the election… as soon as they got in to power, they dumped every promise they gave to get elected in the first place …. So in essence, they have no mandate to continue their destruction of the country’s economy, and the sellout out of its future!!!!!

I agree with u, Cal. Makes u wonder who actually “is” in charge, eh ? Politicians are like actors at times, it seems. “Memorise your lines & move as directed”. We’ll see what happens en France. Greece is the real worry, tho’.

And then we will vote no again ;) simple

Your not on your own jackie…. U feel exactly the same…. Here my not so pure taughts on our spineless TD’S

We are 4 years in and the budget deficit is still as bad as day one….

What the F*ck are the TD’s our representatives aka the clowns doing bout the deficit… Nothing because there bloody only teachers and accountants…. No offense to teachers and accountants who actually work at what there qualified to do…
To reduce our deficit we need to increase growth and at the same time cut expenses…. Growth we cant really control…
Now look its simple but takes balls to do it… It won’t be popular but must be done but this shower of clowns just want to be popular…. U must do what is best for your country and not what’s popular.
We need to reduce the power the unions have in this country…
Set proper and realistic pay scales for all public and civil servants… Including the entire political establishment…
Cut our SW budget – cut out fraud
Make savings in health – by negotiating with drug suppliers rather than cutting low paid nurses… Sort out the administration…
Stop blowing countless millions on quangos, advisors to advisors, stupid council decisions, tribunals and the 700 or so different benefits to the state employees etc etc
I can see why there not doing any of the above because they want more than anything to get this treaty passed… But I guarantee that after this treaty over regardless of the outcome the shit is gonna hit the fan…. it’s gonna be cuts cuts cuts IMO.
I be voting NO because it’s time we stop taking credit when we can’t even afford what we owe already…. We won’t need to borrow more cash if we bloody hell sort out issues above…
I rather be poor than poor and bitch slapped daily by foreign elites who gonna rape this country of everything we have…
And finally sorry about the rather strong language but I’m pretty pissed off with our clowns in Dail Eireann and I feel strongly about this. There seems to be to many commentators here who can’t see long term what’s coming down the tracks…..

Mojo the defecit isnt just as bad as day one ….. it is a lot worse!

Well said Jackie,
Well said MojoRise
We all feel the same way . Thaty is why it is imperative that we get out there with family and friends and vote NO . Our TD’s are turn coat traitors . They have belittled us and have brought us to our knees. It is time for us to stand up and say enough is enough and vote NO. NO.NO.
I am so tired of listening to the same people on here not only putting us down personally , but putting us down as a nation and these are the same people who govern us through their political parties. Vote NO .

Here here Jackie. A bunch of schoolteachers running our country. Not a business brain between all of them. Bunch of misfits.

It’s Frau Merkel, Herr Merkel is her father. Although to be fair, could he have done any worse of a job running the Department of Finance?

She already does through her lapdog…

Sit Enda, sit. Give me your paw. Your paw, not your tail you stupid Irish wolfhound.

Woof! Woof! Woof! (Paw in the air awaiting the Master’s blessing)

I don’t need you now. Go away and lie down until I command you to come. I have more pressing problems with this new president in France…Nicolas was like my second-in-command – agreed with all I said.

I think herr marker is a very accurate description! :)

@ Jim Hunt…I think you may have missed Michael’s sarcasm…she acts and looks more like a man – Herr Angela!!!!!!!

You are not a failed teacher turned politician, are you??

We’re all on your side in this fight Michael. Herr Merkle all the way. Sorry Jim Hunt, but we do love an oule Journal scrap on a boring bank holiday… ;)

Anybody notice how quiet Richard Bruton is??? I reckon he’s sitting on the the sidelines rubbing his hands waiting for Edna to fall flat on his face when the referendum fails to pass. The sooner he calls for a vote of no confidence in Edna, the sooner this administration will fall.

Actually I think he is her husband, she is Frau Merkel

And all the more reason for us to vote NIL!

Ann I hate to break this to you but nobody else needs us to vote Yes or No. It’s not an EU treaty so it only needs twelve signatures to go ahead.

I am aware of that Gary, but we want our european neighbours to know that we are not mats and will not be walked on for their benefit. The best way to do that at the moment is to send out a resounding NO.

I read this while screaming inside.

turn off caps lock….. please
You are giving me a headache.

AAAAAAGGGGGGHHHHH!

You have hit the nail on the head.

SORRY ITS BROKEN,, I AM STUCK ON CAPITALS,,

DAS CAPITAL (sic)

a capital speech …..

CAPITAL PUNISHMENT

@ Jackie

I understand your frustration, but please understand all this is +not+ about ‘nation vs nation’.

The real villains are the ones pulling the strings above – the financial & wealthy elites, the 1%, if you will.

Political leaders & their parties are the ‘useful idiots’ of the elites. They do not rise to power or prominence without the nod from above. They are there to distract, divide us & rule, not provide ‘democracy’.

It just so happens that the most powerful, financially & politically are in Germany, but the have ‘affiliates’ in every country, lining their pockets (still!) at our expense.

German citizens themselves have seen their wages, working conditions & benefits steadily & deliberately eroded over the last decade particularly. (Former German finance minister, Heiner Flassbeck has conference presentations on youtube about this.)

The key to the elites holding power has been the control over economics thinking & banking. The public, where they are informed at all are fed a bogus understanding of macro economics. Most economists work in the financial sector, long ago ‘captured’. But after 3 decades of debasing intellectual honesty & integrity, academic macro economics is nearly as bad.

The result, besides falsely constraining governments’ fiscal options, has been the rise of the now enormous ‘financialised’ economy that does nothing whatever of productive purpose in the real economy – it’s purely extractive, much operating like a casino where we are forced to back there losses or our normal financial transaction services crash (because they were deliberately integrated with the casino following years of gutting ‘regulation’.).

Professor Michael Hudson offers an excellent overview.

http://michael-hudson.com/

@Mike – show me a working democracy where this isn’t true……

@ Paul

Just because it’s pervasive is no excuse not to try & change it. Most especially if we look ahead to the huge challenges humanity is going to face in the coming decades. I think we owe it to our children to make an effort.

If you are looking for some inspiration of a better time in politics, try the the post WWII UK Labour government. Swept to power on a radical platform of unemployment benefits, free education for all & their national health service. All that against the Tory & Tory press scaremongering, the country was broke, in debt, the sky would fall & all the rest. Churchill, the ‘war victorious’ leader was vehemently against it – he lost.

Politics that does represent the interests of the majority, not the ‘few’, is possible. Tho’ not with any of the mainstream ‘leadership’ we have now, perhaps not with any of the main parties. But if we educate ourselves to reject the lies & false economics thinking epidemic of the last 3 decades, & demand change, we can succeeed in creating a far better country than now.

Methinks u may be right with your Gilmore comparison.

I think it safe to say your dear leader, david, isn’t haunted by his deceit, u-turns and broken promises david. In fact he’s probably smugly patting himself on the back for being such a cute hoor and lying his way to the top.

Enda will fall before Gilmore!!

Well with a bit of luck David, Frankfurts haunting of Gilmore will scare him so much that he will do us all a favour and pull out of the coalition.

Not another red cent, David, or had you forgotten?

Get a grip! This is not in the best interest of the country! Germany and the federal Europe definitely but not Ireland or its citizens.

Ryan- the vast majority of this Treaty is already EU law. We are already working towards these targets. What the Treaty does is ensure that ALL Eurozone countries, big or small, have to play by these rules. It makes sure that we balance our budgets- that we don’t spend more than we bring in. That’s the same constraint as is on any household or taxpayer- surely it’s a sensible policy? Furthermore, ratifying the treaty guarantees us access to the ESM- which will help us when we want to get rid of the IMF and go back to the markets.

Actually Julie, lets be very clear about this. We were getting access to the ESM. Once it became apparent Ireland would have to have a referendum on the treaty, our government colluded with europe to have a blackmail clause inserted making access conditional on a yes vote. You are being blackmailed, the irish people are being blackmailed. And fine gael/labour are allowing it to happen because getting the result they want is more important then us being able to vote on the treaty free from threats.

This is the greatest load of nonsense I’ve ever read, brainwashed for sure.

It’s only right that countries accessing the ESM are following rules to pay the money back.

The belief at the time was that Ireland wouldn’t need a referendum so the blackmail argument is nonsense. It was the attorney general who took a very cautious approach and recommended a referendum.

Julie

Had France and Germany obeyed the laws and played by the rules set out in Maastricht and Niece and not broken the deficit rules then chances are we would not be in the mess we are in. Of course had the rest of Europe grown a pair and insisted on them being punished for doing so, then we wouldnt be needing to have these rules and laws re-inforced in this treaty. Germany (being the Fatherland) move the goal posts whenever it suits them and expects the children to keep their mouth shut about it and not complain.

Julie, as you say – these rules are already party of EU law. So what’s the fiscal compact about then?

Well now if we didn’t have to pay the banks we wouldn’t be over spending!! Delusional at best!!

We could start by insisting that our bank debt is borne by the banks not the people. Since the start of this crisis that has being the elephant in the room. I refuse to pay for speculators and stupid Bankers and their stupid descions based on greed. Before it all went bad for them they were making massive profits. Bankers giving themselves masssive bonuses. Did we see any of this largess, not a single cent.

Ryan, what part of “we’re running a budget deficit regardless of bank debt” do you not get? YEs or NO doesn’t change that. We need money to keep country running…

Agreed! But I choose not to enslave my children’s children with the effects of this treaty for years to come, no to a federal Europe run by Germany. I’d rather take the long walk home alone and suffer my consequences than be kicked up the road by the Germans and suffer their consequences to punish us. Look you can’t starve your way out of a famine the policy’s of the EU have failed, game over. NEIN

A tiny fraction of our borrowing is for bank bailouts. Most is to fund frontline public services and social welfare payments.

That’s what’s at stake if we can’t get funding if we need it after the first bailout and everyone I know on the NO side accepts this fact.

Borrowing even more money is not going to solve the public spending deficit.

Ya ya ya … Bla bla bla still the same shit different day….

Listen up I’m sick repeating it…

4 years in and the budget deficit is still as bad as day one….

What the F*ck are the TD’s our representatives aka the clowns doing bout the deficit… Nothing because there bloody only teachers and accountants…. No offense to teachers and accountants who actually work at what there qualified to do…

To reduce our deficit we need to increase growth and at the same time cut expenses…. Growth we cant really control…

Now look its simple but takes balls to do it… It won’t be popular but must be done but this shower of clowns just want to be popular…. U must do what is best for your country and not what’s popular.

We need to reduce the power the unions have in this country…

Set proper and realistic pay scales for all public and civil servants… Including the entire political establishment…

Cut our SW budget – cut out fraud

Make savings in health – by negotiating with drug suppliers rather than cutting low paid nurses… Sort out the administration…

Stop blowing countless millions on quangos, advisors to advisors, stupid council decisions, tribunals and the 700 or so different benefits to the state employees etc etc

I can see why there not doing any of the above because they want more than anything to get this treaty passed… But I guarantee that after this treaty over regardless of the outcome the shit is gonna hit the fan…. it’s gonna be cuts cuts cuts IMO.

I be voting NO because it’s time we stop taking credit when we can’t even afford what we owe already…. We won’t need to borrow more cash if we bloody hell sort out issues above…

I rather be poor than poor and bitch slapped daily by foreign elites who gonna rape this country of everything we have…

And finally sorry about the rather strong language but I’m pretty pissed off with our clowns in Dail Eireann and I feel strongly about this. There seems to be to many commentators here who can’t see long term what’s coming down the tracks…..

The single biggest issue we face is being able to finance the countries needs. I totally agree that we have to cut our expenditure and that’s one aspect. If we vote no to the treaty we cut our access to the EU fund. As a result we will have to go to the markets to borrow. The interest rates will be much higher than the current rates from the EU

By doing this we are adding to our debt, if we vote no and we cannot borrow and the rates given by the markets are unaffordable there will be 15bn euros of austerity unleashed within a small timeframe. This would be much more harsh than the conditions required by the EU IMF.

You can keep on about the banking debt for another couple of years or you can realise that boat has already sailed. The fact remains that there is no easy solution to getting this country working again.

The conditions outlined in the treaty will prevent the same situation that we are In at the moment from happening again as we will have to be wise with our money.

@ Aoife & Mojo Rise

No offence, but you really need to understand that +macro+ economics of whole countries is +not+ like your household.

Mojo is correct to say we need growth. Growth is the long run normal situation & it is this that enables debt sustainability. We, as householders cannot grow indefinitely. We get old, retire & our income (personal ‘GDP’ if you will) always declines. We +must+ pay off our debts. Governments do not need to & over the long run +never+ do. Rather it is the ability to service interest that matters. Growth means our debt capacity can increase, sustainably.

But note, we cannot cut government expenditure now if we want growth. Government is part of the economy & its spending contributes to GDP (& GNP) just the same as private spending. By definition, cut the gov budget, & unless exports or the domestic private sector can pick up the spending gap, the economy +will+ contract, creating more job losses, less tax income & spiral away down.

But with regard to gov debt capacity, the Euro system is deeply flawed in this situation. Countries that have their own currency have much higher debt capacity because they are in control of their interest rates. When they need to borrow more in a dowturn, they can & do set interest rates lower. US, UK, & Japan are all carrying much higher Debt/GDP ratios. Indeed their governments do not even need to borrow to spend (which is why, ultimately, ‘private’ bond markets have no sway).

In the Eurozone, the opposite happens. When we need to borrow to pull out of a downturn, we get gouged by private bondholders (yes, those same ones we bailed out for their reckless lending to Anglo) with higher, soon unsustainable, interest rates.

In the Eurozone, we have a currency issuer, the ECB, which can create money from thin air, just the same as US, UK etc. It has just done so, with €1,000 billion lent to banks at 1% interest. It can do this for us. Even better it can finance, entirely cost/debt free, growth stimulus programs.

The reasons the ECB will not do this are +political+ (the vested interests of the financial elites profiting off those bonds, now & in the future), not matters of +economics+.

France’s new President Hollande has specifically mentioned reforming the Euro system & properly empowering the ECB. We should vote NO in the referendum & demand our leaders support this initiative.

Regardless of whether you think the public sector is too large, poor value or whatever, the loss of real prosperity by having near 20% (in real terms) of our workforce out of work, for decades, is massively greater – €10s of billions per year. Add it up!

On top of this waste, workers in all countries (yes, including Germany) are all seeing their wages fall to be ‘competitive’. It’s a beggar thy neighbour race to the bottom. The only people who gain from this are the top few percent, esp in the finance sector that does little of productive value for anyone any longer.. Guess who’s really running the show?

Actually no its not..its in the interest of vested interests..not the Irish people..

Which vested interests?

If this is an austerity treaty as everyone claims then no one will be better off by its ratification surely?

@David Higgins … For starters, Political Leaders who pay themselves more than the President of France, 3 times the salary of the Spanish Prime Minister would be considered a vested interest group … You asked me yesterday (twice about the 350k).. I will explain it to you again.. I have explained it many times, and even one of the journalists here on Journal.ie explained it to you a few weeks back also …
Enda Kenny, while leader of FG in opposition paid himself an extra 50,000 euro per year from Tax Payer funds for the 7 years immediately before becoming Taoiseach.. That was on top of his TD salary, his ministerial pension and his expenses… So, even in opposition, he was getting paid more than the president of France … Like, come on… if you dont see people like him being in a vested interest group, looking to maintain their privileged position, by living off the loans from Europe, while at the same time, cutting carers allowances etc … then you are more blind than i gave you credit for.

The 350k was funded by the party.

If you believe that a no vote leads to a cut in politicians pay then the only logical conclusion is that austerity has gotten worse and that everyone else is worse off.

Where did the party get the 350k?