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Dublin: 6 °C Friday 24 May, 2013

Poll: Will the coalition government last until 2016?

In its 16 months in office the coalition has by-and-large worked together solidly but will it last all the way until the next general election?

Image: Niall Carson/PA Archive/Press Association Images

THE GOVERNMENT HAS now been in office for a little over 16 months with the Fine Gael and Labour by-and-large united on the measures it has implemented so far.

But as the Dáil finished up yesterday until September there are some who have noted the tensions among certain ministers including Fine Gael’s James Reilly and Labour’s Roisin Shortall at the Department of Health over who knew what about the departure of the head of the HSE.

When TDs return in September there will also be a number of potentially contentious issues that could split the coalition partners including liberalisation of abortion legislation and of course the Budget where cuts to welfare could make it difficult for some within the Labour Party which has already stripped three TDs of the party whip for voting against the government.

But despite all this both coalition partners say they are firmly committed to the programme for government and there is little sign of much tension between the two party leaders Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore.

So today we want to know do you think the current coalition government will survive all the way until the next general election in 2016 at the latest?


Poll Results:





Note: This poll earlier identified 2015 as the year for the next general election when in fact the latest date at which the next general election can be called is 8 April 2016.

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Comments (130 Comments)

  • Fine Gael would not give labour permission to pull the plug

    Reply
  • *Will* it last? Yes; because they want to reshuffle after 2.5yrs to give two sets of ministers their enhanced pension entitlements. *Should* it last? No; because it breached its electoral mandate by u-turning on electoral manifesto from day one.

    Reply
    • There was no government election manifesto. The Government came into being after the election. Anyone who votes for a politician on the basis of promises only has themselves to blame. Also, you can’t expect a party to deliver completely on a manifesto unless it has an overall majority, and even then it’s highly unrealistic, because implementing a manifesto involves others, and we don’t have a dictatorship, changes must be negotiated.

      Reply
  • Labour have sold out the working class, betrayed their own roots and made a laughing stock of left wing politics. They will stay until ejected, each of them motivated by personal position, their own financial gain and a dam good pension.

    Reply
  • Let’s hope they don’t last… Labour are the new greens, hopefully they will go the same way….

    Reply
  • No. Their backbenchers will become increasingly nervous as the next election comes ever closer. People haven’t short memories and these TD’s want to be re-elected. We have already seen some backbenchers vote against the Gov’t in the last budget. I can’t wait to see what happens during this years budget. Then we will see the destruction of this government like FF.

    Reply
  • All Politicians have the same objectives – to gain and remain in power. TRUE , REAL change must come from outside the current parties and system which is self perpetuating. Most Ministers are primary and secondary school teachers or 3rd level lecturers – why is this – go figure !

    Reply
  • Yes it will (salaries, pensions and age profile of labour ministers will see to that), but if Labour were truly ambitious for itself and the country they should walk and force FG/ff to coalesce.

    Reply
  • They will face increasing protests, if not social unrest which will force them into early elections.

    FG have lost their mandate and so have LAB.

    Reply
  • Not a chance. Labour’s base is being eroded as it is. They won’t be able to handle 3 more budgets.

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  • The question should be ” are we really going to allow them to be in Government until 2015? “

    Reply
  • Have to smile at the ongoing disillusion at the Government & the blame being laid mainly at the feet of Labour. The vast majority of the policies being implemented are that of FG. Is this sustained attack on Labour ultimately just a smokescreen to hide the fact its FG & their semi Thatcherite policies that have failed us so miserably?
    Me thinks a quite a few Guilty voters out there who want to blame Labour but in their eagerness to get rid of the last bunch of half wits FF actually shook hands with the Devil. Dont get me wrong extremely disappointed with Labour & their ongoing support of this Goverment BUT lets not forget whose policies we dont like come next election

    Reply
    • Scarr 20/07/12 #

      A problem is labour aren’t voicing their objection to certain policies. They’re playing happy families as shown from the non- press conference recently. I voted labour in order to see change come about, I wanted something better but it’s more of the self – serving same. Sherlock, rabbitte, Gilmore and Quinn are all reasons I won’t vote labour in the future.

      Reply
    • Richard- your arguments are valid, but you are ignoring the elephant in the room. People are angry BECAUSE Labour have been so placid and willing, when implementing FG’s policies. They have shown no backbone or willingness to defend the plight of ordinary working people. While having great policies makes for an interesting election, it is implementing them and remaining true to your supporters that makes for great governance. Labour have failed the people spectacularly, and I can assure you they will pay a hefty price in the next election. FG are what they are, and their voters know what they are getting. The country has a large conservative, centre right population, who can relate to their top-down thinking. Labour, however, are silent passengers, who claim repeatedly to be left wing and socialist, but yet work tirelessly to implant right wing initiatives and repeatedly disappoint their support base? Does this seem like blameless party actions to you? Should people accept Labours rhetoric, and be grateful that they say they care, even though they have no intention of actually doing anything about the plight of the nations working class? They are a centrist party, Richard, which should abandon the socialist rhetoric altogether, and stop paying the working class a disservice by giving their issues lip service, when both their heart and agenda is focussed on maintaing power, at all costs. They are FF/FG in a cheaper suit. They are pop- culture socialists, at best, and consciously misleading their supporters, at worst.

      Reply
  • Next election is in 2016, I thought.

    Reply
  • I don’t know myself — but I’m NEVER voting for FF, FG or Labour ever again.
    They are a bunch of liars, u-turn artists, traitors and greedy profiteers.

    Reply
  • i say give sf and independants a chance to prove them selves the rest of them have serious bad track records in power

    Reply
  • Rob 20/07/12 #

    I will be voting for SF because I already paid 27K stamp duty when I purchased my house. A property tax needs to be scrapped and replaced with a third band of income tax on rich incomes above 100K.

    Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      SF pay lip service to socialism. Socialists tend to think tax is a good thing. If you are annoyed about paying various forms of tax, voting socialist won’t make much sense.

      Reply
    • JTHM,

      In your bubble, nothing makes sense. You are a conservative supporter of parties like Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

      Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      Actually no – I went from voting SWP to SF, but was so disgusted with SF when dealing with the party members face-to-face that I swore I’d never vote for them again. I’ve never voted FG and never would. I’ve voted FF once in my life, and that was to vote for the candidate, not the party. I left Ireland years ago and it’s unlikely I’ll return until after the current crop of political gougers, cronies and sociopaths have been pensioned off. Get your facts straight and make less assumptions about people. In other words, stop following the SF drone model. Not even the SF higher-ups respect the SF drone.

      Reply
    • Voting Sinn Féin for *LOWER* taxes…..

      You obviously don’t know anything about Sinn Féin so.

      Reply
  • Stick the Shinners & Socialist minority parties in….They couldn’t be any worse than the Meanderthal Clowns we have there now…!!!

    Reply
  • It is interesting to read these comments and the three things I think most people want are (a) change (b) proper representation (c) an end to local fix it politics. If we continue to have coalition governments, (which we will for the foreseeable future because the electorate are not stupid and have not yet given a clear option/mandate to any group they just pick the best of a bad lot). Then with our current set up we will continue to get compromise, disappointment and watered down failure.

    Perhaps it is now time that we looked at changing our election system. The Irish people as a country elected a National President. Could we not look at a system where the Nation could elect a Dail of TDs who represent all of Ireland. There are good people in all of the parties and independents in Ireland but they are constrained and defeated by the system. If representatives could dispense with “having” to campaign on “local issues” then perhaps National issues could be dealt? For as long as we continue to elect people “to keep this or that hospital open” rather than to fix the Irish Health service etc then we are condemned to our current morass in a repetitive cycle.

    It is not a question of how long or if this Government will survive, but rather how long can WE survive with the current system. National interests are the people’s interests. These will never be served with the system we have.

    Reply
  • Scarr 20/07/12 #

    Do I like them? No. will I vote for them? No. Are they stubborn enough to see out the term? Yes. Look at the situation the country was in in order to collapse the last bunch of wasters. I’ll not vote labour again, never will ff and fg are too similar to ff to get my vote. Looks like we need a new party.

    Reply
  • Paul 20/07/12 #

    Yes it will survive, purely because the self-serving slugs in power know the majority of them wont get re-elected so might as well hold on to those fat pay checks and the semblance of power that they have until the bitter end.

    Reply
  • I could see an election being called over the summer of 2015 many politicians saying summer is best time for an election allows new gov to make budget in nov and with 2016 commemorations I think a March 2016 elections with rising centenary would prob be too tight

    Reply
  • Elrat 20/07/12 #

    What’s the alternative ?
    Can’t wait for answers

    Reply
  • As long as FF aren’t re-elected… We need to give real parties like the Socialists, the Independents and SF a chance.

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  • Certainly not Fianna Fail anyway. I would prefer the next government to be the Socialist Party.

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  • Anyone see prime times segment on abortion last night ? I agree with the quote-Austerity won’t bring down the coalition, but abortion will- if James O Reilly tries to introduce Abortion in certain circurstances its gonna create a divide in the coalition.

    Reply
  • All members of this government should think about resigning immediately, as they are giving the green light to shale gas development (fracking), a practice which has left a devastating economic, social and environmental legacy everywhere it has taken place. The government’s refusal to acknowledge its citizens concerns about fracking, its ignorance of peer-reviewed scientific research highlighting these concerns and its subsequent failure to introduce a bill to ban the practice (as has been done in France and Bulgaria and soon the Czech Republic) is nothing short of criminal. Please help support an Irish ban on shale gas development – a socially, economically and environmentally destructive means of extracting unconventional shale gas which, in order to be economically viable, requires the industrialisation of thousands of acres, blighting the landscape with hideous concrete seven acre well pads every few kilometres, along with a host of ancillary infrastructure such as giant toxic wastewater pits, noisy compressor stations running 24/7, heavy traffic – the list is endless. This is NOT small-scale conventional gas drilling. (See: http://www.slideshare.net/​gdecock/​euro-parliament-ingraffeaju​ne2012) Please educate as many people as possible about the dangers. We have to convince our government to ban the practice, as has been done in France and Bulgaria along with many regions and states worldwide.

    Reply
  • “This poll earlier identified 2015 as the year for the next general election when in fact the latest date at which the next general election can be called is 8 April 2016.”

    The fact that only one commenter (as far as I can see) noticed this says a lot about the quality of political education in this country.

    Reply
  • Sinn fein …

    Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      That’d be one way to promote emigration…

      Reply
    • It wouldn’t promote emigration. Only the posh snobs who advocate class warfare constantly brag about leaving if they don’t get the result they want. Nothing more than a conservative taliban.

      Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      Yes it would. It is not a matter of current politics, it’s a matter of a significant proportion of the population seeing SF not as a political party, but as a terrorist organisation who promote hatred and violence. I am NOT saying I hold this view, I am neutral on the subject, but is naive to dismiss that many do believe this. And please don’t throw terms like “taliban” around, it makes you sound like a tabloid.

      Reply
    • Scarr 20/07/12 #

      Sinn fein will make good gains in the next election at labours expense. Ff will gain slightly, fg will have a marginal drop, independents will do well and we might even see the return of the greens. Labour are definitely the losers in this game. I’ll be voting independent in case you ask. All in all I think it’s still fg election to lose. If the economy is improving most people won’t want to rock the boat, that how ff hung on in berties last election, better the devil you know etc. If I had to put a bet on right now it would be for fg to win, forming a gov with a neutered labour and a group of indos. Though imagine if we got a fg ff coalition!

      Reply
    • @JTHM, we all moved on after the Good Friday Agreement, you need to stop being childish and do the same, and in case you haven’t been around the last 18 months, emigration is in full swing

      Reply
    • Karswell 20/07/12 #

      You Reacted… Good of you to show your ignorance, maybe read a comment before you comment on it. Classic leftie logic – if it gets the blood pumping and the ire rising, no need for it to be true.

      Reply
    • Yeah, not sure where you’re coming from there, nothing and auld cuppa and a hug won’t cure Karswell *ruffles hair*

      Reply
    • Karswell 20/07/12 #

      @ You Re… you criticized a commenter ( JMTH ) for giving an opinion when he/she clearly stated that this was not his/her opinion. You didn’t read his/her post properly. You were wrong. What’s not to get?

      Reply
    • “On the 27-11-2010, 100,000 people marched in protest against their ongoing immiseration by a criminal Irish government, hell bent on forcing on them and the most vulnerable in Irish society the gambling debts of their cronies in the financial and property developer sector of the Irish economy.”
      Nothing has changed, fine gael need to be told to leave like ff were. There plan all along was to just continue to do what ff were doing and they told us nothing but lies to trick us into voting for them. We need seriously change in this country to rid Ireland of corruption. We messed up last time because we should have given the people more say in what happens because our government has messed up everything they try to do.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0AKtj7nZG0&feature=related

      Reply
  • I think the ” Who is wearing the trousers” argument is largely for the media. Of course they have some difference. They are different parties ruling in a coalition during an exceptionally difficult time. Just let them get on with it, enough of the false controversies.

    Reply
  • Of course it Will last – there is no credible alternative plus if they are to survive reasonably intact after next ge they’ll need every ounce of time available to turn things around. Ps – would contributors stop pretending that they ‘voted fg last time but feel so let down that next time they’ll vote sinn fein’- bs , there is no such type of voter that wud swing fg->sf

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    • Credible alternatives: Socialists, Independents and SF.

      Reply
    • Socialists……lol

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    • People having some difficulty understanding the word ‘credible’ – ‘socialists’ or ‘sf’ haven’t a remote passing resemblance to the word hence the reason 90% of the country laughs at the notion of them been in power when it comes to actual general elections( NOTE- Twitter or Politcis.ie polls aren’t the country!!)

      Reply
    • Sean,

      The country comprises of placid voters who voted to destroy the country in 2002, 2007 and 2011.

      Traditional family values runs deep in Irish voting culture (mostly in 30+ age group).

      The younger generation is changing for the better.

      Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      Absolutely correct that there are no credible alternatives. Also, for all their complaining, I don’t believe any of the opposition parties truly want an election in the near future; they haven’t as yet consolidated their supporters and they are aware that, if they were calling the shots, they’d probably end up being seen as being as ineffective as the current administration. Remaining in opposition is a safer and more popular place to be.

      Reply
    • So Sean, you must reckon that FG were the credible alternative to FF……funny that then it’s widely accepted and proven that they are doing the exact same as FF and following the same path….you must have a skewed understanding of “alternative”.
      There’s no such type of voter that (wud) would swing fg ->sf?

      Here’s where your understanding also flounders, ever pause to think that people who may have voted for the main parties are sick and tired of getting the same old crap, the same shit under a different banner and are willing to make the jump to SF???…… ever contemplate that or are you still part of the clique who inherits an allegiance and clings to it no matter what?

      Reply
    • “We demand a democracy that shows zero tolerance to corruption”

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRBbI257cOQ

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    • @ireland reborn, for that you need a population that stands up against corruption.

      Reply
    • JTHM 20/07/12 #

      @ YRHH – please take the time to actually read my comment. You’ve replied to your assumption, not to you I wrote.

      Reply
    • This looks like a nation that stands up to corruption here. We just made the mistake of not changing the rules. Fine Gael are following the same plan that 100,000 Irish people protested against. It’s time to get back out on the streets but this time we need a follow through plan.
      The Peoples Plan
      1. Make the banks pay for their mistakes.
      2. Arrest all corrupt politicians and bankers.
      3. Re-direct all public finances to Schools, Hospitals, and to people who enhance our society.
      4. Begin using an Irish version of Direct Democracy and call a referendum on all the major problems we face.
      5. Start planning for our future.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0AKtj7nZG0&feature=related

      Reply
    • @ Ireland Reborn:

      1. Make the banks pay for their mistakes – how exactly? The banks are broke.

      2. Arrest all corrupt politicians and bankers – one point I agree with, as long of course as you have evidence of corruption.

      3. Re-direct all public finances to Schools, Hospitals, and to people who enhance our society – What about other areas that need to be financed? Roads, public transport, the gardai and the courts no longer suitable for financing? Also what is the widely accepted definition of “people who enhance our society”?

      4. Begin using an Irish version of Direct Democracy and call a referendum on all the major problems we face – Again what is the definition of a major problem? Already we have had individuals on here complaining about too many referendums.

      5. Start planning for our future – how long into the future? What type of planning? Frequently there are plans there, for most government departments and agencies. Irish people just don’t bother reading them.

      Reply
    • Hi Ryan,
      Thanks very much for your questions. If you want to know all the answers add us on facebook :-)

      Reply
  • FF would step in and support them, then tail would be wagging the tail. Labour will pull out, the next budget should break them. Unless there’s a huge write down of debt, If people dont revolt after next budget. It’s a green light to them, to ride us the whole way and leave their wages untouched at the top also tax breaks untouched!

    Reply
  • Do people actually think there’ll be a Sinn Féin/socialist gov? Dream on ! most people can’t stand those fools! As for independents the less of those the better.

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    • What is your scientific basis? I will be voting for the Socialist Party, never Labor again.

      Reply
    • I’m not sure a swing of votes from Labour to SF/Socialists will be enough to get a socialist government in Ireland.
      Many of those public sector labour votes could stray back to FF if public sector pay is touched in the coming years. You’d have FF bleating about how they brought in Croke park and promising the world.

      Ireland is a centrist democracy. We don’t vote for hard libertarianism, as we’re culturally placid and easily led. As a formerly occupied nation we don’t vote for hard authoritarianism. We don’t vote for the hard left economically, as we’re mé-féiners in nature with an unhealthy obsession with personal ownership of property etc, and we have a relatively strong middle-class core looking out for themselves. We don’t vote for hard right economically, because we actually generally believe in decent standards of living – we like socialism in theory, but we definitely believe that some should be more equal than others, so we subscribe to the basic standard of living ideals.

      It would be a massively interesting project from a purely political perspective, but I’m not sure it would come off. I think the left vote remains very fractured in Ireland. A lot of people who should form a base for the left vote are swayed by Independents. As services are repealed in rural Ireland, I can only see this strengthening the hand of the independent campaigning on something like Acute Care hospital services in Roscommon.

      From a personal perspective, I will again vote independent, and it won’t be the type that gets in. I find my political and social ideological representatives (or approximations thereof) tend to be independents trying to cover all the angles, rather than big issue candidates, and so end up leaving in early rounds.

      Reply
    • Well there’s certainly no scientific basis in *I’M voting for them, therefore they’ll probably win on a landslide*

      Polling shows that Sinn Féin have peaked at 25% but in recent times have settled in the mid-high teens.

      Even if they managed to get 25% in a national election they’d have to go into coalition with Fianna Fáil or Labour to make it work. Independents and smaller parties wouldn’t have the numbers.

      Reply
  • I hope not

    Reply
  • Not a chance.

    Reply
  • Now there is a suprise….A journal.ie poll suggesting the demise of the goverment…Very accurate allright….like the poll on the referrendum and every other poll you guys run..
    What don’t ye do something different for a change like ‘Proper Journalism’

    Reply
  • Indies and Martin’s new party.

    Or the airport.

    Reply
  • 20/07/12 #

    Where’s the “Don’t care” option ?

    Reply
  • some people may disagree with this but the only politician I had any time for was Brian lennihan he was one good apple in the ff barrell I often wondered if he had been in charge at the time would Irish politics be different and if so the fascists we have ruining the country now would still be picking their noses on the back benches

    Reply
    • Brian Lenihan bankrupted the country. He has the opportunity to skip the guarantees but chose not to do so. That left Ireland with massive liabilities which forced us into a bailout and more austerity.

      You are a typical illiterate and brainwashed FF follower. Keep drinking your kool aid because FF are never getting back to power again. People would commit suicide before electing FF again.

      Reply
    • Thanks to your ‘good apple’ looking after his golden circle friends, my son came into the world with a 70 grand debt around his neck.

      Reply
    • You’re right Steven, I think some people will disagree with you. I would for one, he was the first person I actually didn’t feel sadness for at hearing of his premature death…I remember thinking we should have closed off Dame St and had a party like we did for the two yoyo’s who visited us that summer.

      Reply
    • Scarr 20/07/12 #

      @steven – not sure if trolling. Lenihan, I have gear heard was a nice man that you could have a laugh with. Unfortunately, he was also instrumental in putting a financial noose around our neck. With ffriends like that….

      Reply
    • @ Bronagh: That’s actually the nastiest comment I’ve read on this site ever.

      Why would anyone bother being a politician when nasty keyboard warriors like you revel in their early deaths? Brian Lenihan may done things wrong but he had more bravery than a nasty, horrible person like you!

      Reply
    • IMO Brian Lenihan should have resigned when he realised that he wasn’t going to get better. He made one of the most important decisions for this country since the founding of the state, and he did so while suffering emotional turmoil and stress in his private and family life. I’m sure he probably was a nice person but he should have stood down when he was diagnosed with cancer. By not doing so, he probably made his own health worse aswell as that of the public purse.

      Reply
    • @bronagh, what a horrible comment, you should be ashamed of yourself.

      Reply
  • The dummies on the back benches will have to wake up before its too late or they will be joining FF. on the dump.

    Reply
  • Ita Ryan 21/07/12 #

    Voted ‘Don’t know’ because there was no ‘I don’t really give a toss any more – they’re all the same’ option.

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  • to the smart ass individuals who left sarcastic comments for me how brave you are illiterate I am not and cool aid is that some hillbilly drink maura ?? and if you have the dubious honour of being a fg supporter god help this country… as for ff not getting back in watch this space fg what a defunct shower of to**ers

    Reply
  • Need a new party containing people from all 3 major legitimate parties in the state (FF,FG,Labour) Socialists etc are of course legitimate but likely to go their own way. This party (with its new name) would easily keep Sinn Fein out. Only way to prevent a post-Weimar collapse Sinn Fein state.

    Reply
  • With being sure now many many thumps down will follow my comment ;-)
    Enda Kenny is not the worst….he is a down to earth guy and he really tries this is my feeling, not up in the air and all party and gaining – I think he is NOT A BAD CHOICE! I actually like him…
    But….having said that it is TIME FOR US PEOPLE to get rid of politicians and take responsibility for our own actions…. TIME FOR CHANGE!!

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  • Labour on its own

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  • Sinn Fein will be in coalition with Fine Gael. The blue shirts will lose some ground. Labour will get their arses handed to them a la greens. Fine Gael will do what is unthinkable now to keep themselves in the driving seat.

    Reply
  • It depends who makes the move. There are 25 spare seats in the Gov. benches. Could a bloc of conservative christians break away from FG, or equally could the majority of Lab TD’s form a cogent left? Cynically, and more likely is the shedding of 2-3 from the Gov. benches each year until the election in 2016, and it’s a long road to get there yet.

    Reply

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