TheJournal.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more »
Dublin: 10 °C Tuesday 21 May, 2013

Vote No: The Treaty will bring the EU together – in economic stagnation

Confidence and stability will be the last things to emerge from this dangerous experiment, writes Michael Taft.

Michael Taft

UNDERSTANDABLY, IN THIS referendum we are focused on the impact of the Fiscal Treaty on Ireland.  But this is a Treaty for the eurozone and the entire EU (with the exceptions of the UK and the Czech Republic, which are pursuing their own home-grown austerity policies).

The Government has made much about how the Fiscal Treaty will introduce ‘stability’ and ‘confidence’ in the Irish and European economies.  So what might we expect from this unique experiment in simultaneous austerity and how might it impact on an open economy like Ireland. Will the Fiscal Treaty actually result in ‘stability’ and ‘confidence’?

Not according to the Institute for Macro-economic and Economic Research (IMK) based in Germany.  They teamed up with other research institutes in Austria and France to assess the impact of the Fiscal Compact on Eurozone and EU growth.  And the numbers are not good.

IMK 1

The IMF is already projecting that Euro area and EU growth rates will be well below world growth rates.  In a post-fiscal treaty scenario, the IMK projects that European growth rates will be cut further – with Euro area growth rates falling to an insipid ½ percent average annual growth rate.

The IMK also looks at specific countries.

IMK 2

It might surprise some that Germany – the ‘engine of the Eurozone economy’ – is already projected to be a low-growth economy under the IMF projections.  Even by 2016, the IMF expects the German economy to grow by a mere 1.3 percent.  However, given that Germany doesn’t have a significant structural deficit issue, the impact of the fiscal treaty will lower growth only marginally.

However, when it comes to France – which does have a significant structural deficit problem – we see that a low-growth economy will find its growth rate cut in half by the Fiscal Treaty.  As for Italy which, like Germany, doesn’t have a significant structural deficit issue, average growth rates fall into negative territory – from an IMF projection which shows them already flat-lining.

The IMK projections for Ireland don’t really work well because they assume all countries the Fiscal Compact would be implemented will meet the structural deficit target by 2016, whereas Ireland may get more leeway coming out of a programme.  However, if we assume that Ireland must meet the structural deficit target what might we expect?

IMK 3

I have assumed that a further €5.4 billion fiscal adjustment would be necessary to close the structural deficit gap by 2017 (€5.4 billion being the gap in 2015).  This adjustment is to start in 2015.  What we find is that GDP growth stagnates at 2014 levels – with implications for unemployment (which the IMF already estimates at over 10 percent in 2017 with a growth rate in excess of 3 percent), incomes and living standards.

And if the Irish growth rates still look better than other countries in the post-fiscal treaty scenario, we always have to remember that GDP is flattered by a multi-national sector which books profits here and then immediately takes them out of the country in what is essentially an accounting exercise.

So all of this is supposed to instil ‘confidence’ and ‘stability’?  Cutting growth rates even further in Europe which is already looking forward to a low-growth medium-term scenario – far below world growth rates?  How does this promote the confidence necessary to increase investment – when domestic demand is being cut in a number of countries simultaneously?  How does this stabilise public finances when economies are going to find it even more difficult to generate the revenues necessary to repay debt?  And what happens to all this math if Spain falls into bail-out?

For the Government this is a special problem.  Their recovery strategy is based on an expanding export base.  However, if European countries are simultaneously driving down their demand, our markets for exports will be contracting.  How does reduced demand in Europe impact on our real export growth.

This is not a drive to promote ‘confidence’ and ‘stability’ – this is a dangerous experiment that will produce even greater uncertainty.

This is a recipe for extending and deepening stagnation.

But, hey, at least we’ll be doing it together.  As they say, misery loves company.

Michael Taft is Research Officer with UNITE the Union; author of the political economy blog Notes on the Front; and a member of the TASC Economists Network.

You can read more from Michael Taft here.

Vote Yes: EU funds are like our credit union. Let’s not go to the loan sharks>

Read next:

Comments (46 Comments)

  • I may be wrong Ross but I don’t think he was asked to pen a “balanced view” that would be the job of the referendum commission.

    Reply
  • €11 billion in payments into the ESM
    €6 Billion extra cuts in 2015
    20 years of additional cuts under the 1/20th rule year on year.

    Vote NO on the 31st

    Reply
  • Fagan's 23/05/12 #

    Downside to Regan’s politics is that it kicked off a borrowing explosion, both state and private. The legacy of which the world is dealing with now and frankly has killed the West as the supreme economic area of the world.

    Reply
  • Fagan's 23/05/12 #

    Even if we vote Yes, this treaty will not see the light of day.

    The EU plan is for all economies in Europe to balance their books through growth and austerity. The plan is to have all the states in the Eurozone cut spending massively to do so, thus cutting demand and economic growth. Everyone cutting and hoping to sell more to those cutting.

    It’s absolute lunacy, its why the pact has been described by Nobel Prize winning economist as an “economic suicide pact”.

    America and China, Japan etc etc are not going to allow Europe tip the Global economy in to a new turndown, just because Merkel wants to play electoral politics.

    Reply
  • Well I can’t believe it has taken this long for someone to spell out with figures what any right minded person already knew. no for tge impossible task of getting our treasonous government to smell the coffee.

    Reply
  • I just heard on RTE News that the €10 Billion bribe just landed on the desks of the Unions to try to get them to recommend voting Yes.

    Hopefully they will recognise it as that and stay untempted by the Government ‘Shilling’ ?

    They are reprehensible in their methods, this Government, to lower themselves to an even new lowest level of corruption and sellout!

    Reply
  • Paul 23/05/12 #

    Vote yes for EU controlled Austerity measures.
    Vote no for Irish Government controlled Austerity measures.
    I think voting no gives us a better chance of making our own decisions

    Reply
  • Are all journal.ie readers ‘No’ voters or are all the opinion polls propaganda?

    Reply
    • Fagan's 23/05/12 #

      I guess Journal readers are younger, where most of the No vote lies, where as most of the Yes Vote is in the 55+ segment and unlikely to frequent this as much.

      Reply
    • Sarah 23/05/12 #

      Well i am a younger voter as well and i am also a NO NO NO, but is saying that 5 people in my house are all voting No but this will come down to the retired public sector and current public sector workers and i am just hoping they will put everyone elses concerns before their own but then again we still have croke park deal and poor me mentality.

      The Politicians only want a yes so they can still have their over inflated wages and then we have TD’s who cant live on €140k a year and our great leader who hasnt the confidence to debate the issue.

      Reply
    • Sarah, I can only speak for myself of course, but this public sector worker is voting no, as are my father, a retired public servant who spent 30 odd years caring for the elderly, and also my brother, who had to leave his public service nursing job to work in the private sector because he could no longer pay his bills due to the cuts imposed on all public servants before the croke park agreement came into being.

      And fair play to ya getting out to vote. The government are always depending to young voter apathy to push through their latest bullcrap treaty. This referendum can be won or lost by a single vote, and it could be yours or mine…Can’t wait till next thursday to formally register my vote and say ‘blackmail THIS merkel’.

      Reply
    • I agree, Too Trueleft. And, Sarah, that was nothing but insulting towards public sector workers. I really really really wish The Journal would publish some factual information on what public sector workers (not civil servants!) actually earn.
      I’m a public sector nurse, my husband a Garda. We have 2 young children and another on the way. We will be emigrating in 2 weeks time as we can no longer afford to pay our bills. And, no, we didn’t overstretched ourselves and we weren’t greedy borrowing money. Our wages have been cut to such a point that when my husband is going from a late shift onto an early he sleeps in the car at work to save money on petrol. We are broke.
      So, to Sarah and Neil and all those like you, I hope that someday you need a nurse or a Garda or a fireman. And I hope there is nobody there to help you. Because that’s what you deserve. “poor me attitude”. You should be ashamed of yourselves.

      Reply
  • Is getting interesting by the minute…

    Reply
  • Sarah 23/05/12 #

    Sorry @Too TrueLeft. When i say Public Sector i dont mean the average person on a modest wage or retired worker on a modest pension. I mean our out of touch advisers in dept of finance and the like who are on their over inflated salary’s of 100k and excess and not to mention our retired TD’s and the like. It makes me sick to see Michael Martin come out and try blackmail us into voting Yes when he still hasnt called the Gardai on Padraig Flynn over the theft of €50k from the FF party.

    Its a very say day when we dont have an opposition and we never had an opposition in FG or Labour when they say across the dail where FF are now. I am a young person and if this treaty is passed i am afraid i will be leaving as will another 100,000 young people with me every year. It’s a sad day when you feel like a refugee in your own country. What was the point of 1916 when we just hand all back to a new landlord. :(

    Reply
  • Vote No …………

    Reply
  • why do we have to balance the books for the 19% of government tax payers and the Croke park agreement . reduce there wages and see what happened in the 80′s to Reagan . He did it and the US went into 20 years of profitable times for all . Balance your own books and stop sitting on the Euro fence. Im voting no because we are being bullied and nothing else !!

    Reply
  • All the focus is ón growth, why nor look at alternatives, tapping renewable energy, innovation ón green solutions, more openness and transparency, etc, etc,

    Reply
  • Spot on Paul …

    Reply
  • Paul 23/05/12 #

    Very impressive argument and much more detailed than the YES argument on this site

    My reasons for voting no:

    http://arsepolitico.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/stability-lets-wait-and-see-shall-we/

    Reply
  • nonononononoononononononoononononononononoonononono

    Reply
  • Many thanks to Michael Taft for presenting some numbers and graphs for the projections after the vote. However, one question I’ve yet to hear answered is, does voting no mean there is an end to austerity? This seems to be the biggest ‘stick’ the no camp are using on the yes campaign, i.e. the by voting Yes, you are voting for more austerity, however I don’t see how voting no will lessen the need for us to continue austerity measures until we balance our books. Or am I missing something?

    Reply
    • Voting no will not end the austerity Lara. But voting no will allow us as a state and government decide how and at what pace we need to set to get back to balanced books. Voting Yes removes that power from the Irish state and hands it over to the ESM to police.

      Reply
    • A no vote means not making a slave state of this country for generations Of course we’ll have austerity but not austerity as dictated by the Merkel woman which would be absolute and abject poverty.

      Reply
    • No Laura, we still need to reduce the wages of all those earning over 100k per year in the public sector. This would reduce our deficit by almost 1 billion per year according to the Governments own figures. So, yes, there will be austerity, but it will be focussed on removing/eliminating waste rather than necssary services. SF have also suggested bringing in a third rate of tax for all earnings over 100k per year (a third band of PAYE in the region of 46-48%). This would bring in an estimated 1 billion per year based on the Dept of Finance numbers. This would immediately reduce our fiscal deficit by almost 2 billion. The trick after this is to incentivise growth, so that our fiscal spending deficit % would reduce on a yearly basis (as spending would not increase, but the economy would grow, hence increasing tax revenue further). In summary, any tax increases would be for those that can afford it (ie high earners), while leaving the low to middle classes alone going forward and allow spending to resume.
      I hope this answers the question.

      Reply
    • Neil 23/05/12 #

      Gotta love it. You’ve got a Union guy saying vote No because he wants even more borrowing to bump up Public Sector pay even more, and then peple saying vote No to stop all such borrowing!

      Reply
    • Yes campaigners have argued that if Ireland rejects this treaty. Ireland will be cast out into the dark. This is not correct. Bloomberg points out today that Europe’s banks have an exposure of €1.2 trillion to periphery nations.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-22/european-banks-unprepared-for-pandora-s-box-of-greek-exit.html

      In addition, a German economist, Hans Werner Sinn, discovered a massive imbalance in the accounts of the Bundesbank. While this currently will not impact Germany, Sinn warns that even if one nation leaves the Euro that effects could be critical for Germany,

      “Caught in a Trap’

      As long as the monetary union continues to exist, this isn’t a catastrophe. The money is virtual, created by central banks, and its existence doesn’t mean that an equivalent amount is lacking elsewhere. But as soon as a country leaves the euro zone, or the currency union collapses entirely, things get critical.

      “We’re caught in a trap,” Sinn says. “If the euro breaks apart, we’re left with an outstanding balance of nearly €500 billion, owed by a system that no longer exists.” That figure, €500 billion, is more than one and a half times Germany’s annual federal budget.”
      Der Spiegel 06/03/12

      Ireland has much more leverage than the yes side claim and is well positioned to negotiate a restructuring if Ireland’s voters turn down this treaty.

      Reply
    • The missing part of the puzzle is, I think, what the report Taft references is actually about – eurobonds. The borrowing power that we don’t have – and without which there’s no prospect of borrowing for a stimulus – would be provided by tapping Germany’s credit rating to reduce our market borrowing rates.

      So, rather than reduce the government deficit, or gain competitiveness, we would simply hide behind Germany’s borrowing power to avoid addressing any of our domestic economic issues.

      It would be interesting to see what Taft’s projections look like a little further into the future…but I have to give him credit for the best attempt yet at conjuring up a magic money tree that would allow us to continue throwing borrowed money into our state spending.

      One little problem, though – what is it makes the Germans sign up for eurobonds when we won’t sign up to be responsible (in their eyes) with the money we borrow using their credit?

      Reply
    • Fagan's 23/05/12 #

      Joe o’Reilly.

      Germany, while wealthy, has not anywhere near the required funds to recapitalize the Eurozone banks, it’ll do well to capitalize its own.

      The ESM’s 750bn (which has yet to be paid in) is not going to be enough to bailout Spain.

      The only way the crisis will be paid off is the ECB giving in to Market demands to open up liquidity taps, print several trillion Euro’s, capitalize banks, massive investment across the Eurozone etc. All countries need to be on a stable economy footing, but this foolish treaty is only a distraction from that.

      Reply
    • Neil, what in the name of all that is holy are you on about! It’s the Yes side unions who want to ensure the continuation of the gravy train? By the admission of the Yes campaigners including government parties “Access to ESM will ensure we can pay for our public services, a no vote will mean we can’t pay them” (WHICH IS TOTAL BULL BTW), yet now you’re suggesting if we vote no we’ll be borrowing more? Have the Yes side been lying all along so?

      Reply
    • Neil, public sector pay, both individual wages and the overall bill has been REDUCED, so how is it ‘bumping it up even more’.

      Repeating the same falsehood often enough does not make it true.

      Reply
    • Yeah, Neil. Change the record. You’re starting to get boring now .

      Reply
  • The graphs in this article are not in the report on which it claims to be based; neither (from what I can see) are the IMF projections in those graphs.

    You can’t just pull figures from two different sources with different starting assumptions and methodologies, overlay them on a graph and go “look! these numbers are worse!”

    Well, you can, but it’s not exactly honest to do so, particularly if you don’t make it clear that that’s what you’ve done.

    Reply
  • Probably best not to listen to the economic advisor of a trade union – the likelihood of getting a balanced view is 0

    Reply
  • The fact is that we need the treaty and it would be a bad thing if the majority voted no to something that the country needs because they are angry with the government.

    Reply
  • This is the old argument that reducing the ability of governments to borrow reduces growth. He is merely saying that by reducing borrowing by governments in the Eurozone, economies will contract. That makes a number of assumptions – a) that the reduction in borrowing will not lead to more investment – the Brasilian Workers party Government brought in cuts and austerity measures in the 70′s and went through a rough period of reduced growth, that nearly toppled the Government, but they persevered and investment was brought back leading to the subsequent economic miracle and renewed investment in growth and infrastructure. It also assumes there will be no EU New Deal, Europe, under pressure, may bring in a programme of central taxation (Tobin tax and Eurobonds) to create capital centrally that can then be used to pump-prime investments in depressed areas, and of course, countries may increase their actual income by increasing taxation on the rich. So this is a very pessimistic outlook, and its recommendations are dangerously like prophesies that if followed will lead to their self-fulifilment.

    Reply
    • While I am sympathetic to your Expansionary fiscal consolidation argument Jose. I believe that the problem of the size Ireland’s debts would need to be tackled first.
      Prof. Niall Ferguson has pointed out that no nation in 200 years has sustained Ireland’s level of debt without either a default, devaluation or both. Neither of these options are open to Ireland.
      The referendum opens the only opportunity for the Irish voter to force the issue of restructuring. The Irish government would be in a unique negotiating position if they return to Brussels constitutionally unable to ratify the treaty without some concessions.
      If Ireland could get its debt below GDP level, perhaps then, fiscal measures could yield growth.

      Reply
    • Pity they don’t want to do it.

      Reply
  • I’m not an expert it has to be said but I was chatting to some guys who are…
    1. The figures Taft uses in his article don’t seem to be anywhere in the report he references as their source.
    2. The article is actually about eurobonds, and doesn’t seem to use the IMF projections Taft quotes either. If that’s so, he’s comparing two sets of projections with different starting assumptions and claiming them as comparable scenarios.

    Anyone? Seem dubious to me.

    Reply
    • I’ll wait until the yes side can produce their figures on how we can afford to cut more, tax more and pay into the ESM without actually increasing the austerity that has being with us for 5 years and has proven to be an unmitigated disaster.

      Reply

Add New Comment