OVER THE LAST FEW days, the models are having trouble with the rainfall intensity and how far north the rain goes. This is due to Low pressure moving up from the south battling against an area of high pressure centered over Iceland.
The day will start off cloudy over southern areas, but cloud will be broken with some sunshine across the northern half of the country. Rain looks set to arrive onto the Cork and Kerry coasts around 7am and this will gradually move into the rest of Munster during the morning and right along the south coast. At this stage, the rain will turn heavy over Munster and spread into much of Leinster and Connaught throughout the afternoon. Here, it will be light and patchy at first, but with a heavy pulse of rain later in the evening.
This heavy rain will move north and across the middle of the country. Some 25 to 35mm is possible in the southwest by the end of the day, with the risk of spot flooding in the middle of the country. This rain may only be light and patchy over Ulster. In the late evening, drier weather is expected to move into the southwest.
Saturday will be a cool day with highs of just 13 to 17C with winds mainly easterly in direction and breezy. Temperatures will range from 4 to 8C overnight. Low cloud and hill fog will develop around the south, east and west coasts.
Rain affecting much of Leinster and Connaught will gradually move away to the southeast during the afternoon, but it may stay overcast and damp right into the evening in the southeast. The rain persisting from overnight on Saturday will leave some spot flooding in places. Brighter weather over the north will move south during the day so it looks like a bright but cool end to the day in the northern half on Sunday.
Highest temperatures of 13 to 15C with winds now coming in from the east to northeast. A cold night on Sunday with lows of 3 to 7C under any clear skies with mist and fog forming.
Monday will be the best day of the bank holiday weekend, with a good deal of bright weather. Showers will build over Ulster and spread into north Leinster and Connaught with the south holding on to dry and bright weather. Still feeling cool with temperatures around the low to mid-teens with winds from a north east direction. More general cloud will develop in the southwest during the evening with rain after dark.