LAST NIGHT, IN the skies over eastern Poland, civilian flights were grounded as the air was full of heavily armed NATO fighter jets responding to a Russian drone incursion.

Events unfolded between 11.30pm and 12.30am Irish time – as multiple drones crossed into Polish airspace, which is also NATO airspace.  

Security sources have suggested that the arrival of upwards of 20 drones into Polish airspace was an example of Russia testing NATO’s response to a largescale incursion.

An emergency notice was issued to aircraft pilots that warned about military activity. Four airports, including Warsaw, were closed to flights.

A Ryanair flight was seen on two open source flight tracking apps circling above the Polish capital before it diverted. 

It is not the first time that Russian ordnance has crossed into the Polish airspace but the sheer volume of the Shahed drones was different this time. 

Poland scrambled F16 fighter jets to shoot down the drones, there were reports of multiple aircraft, from multiple countries, in the skies above eastern Poland near the cities of Rzsezow, Lublin, Chelm and Zamosc.

The civilian airport at Rzeszow, which has direct flights from Dublin, is the centre of the major arms supply operation to Ukraine and is a critical strategic location.

US military personnel have been stationed there and The Journal, on a visit to the area previously, observed large numbers of defensive anti-aircraft batteries at the airport. 

An Italian early-warning aircraft was despatched from its NATO base in Estonia, a Dutch airborne refueller aircraft also was in the skies – with military sources stating that this was a sign that there was a large presence of Dutch and NATO fighter jets. 

SHAPE, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, is the operational arm of NATO based in Belgium. In an unprecedented statement, it said it was the first time the allies engaged airborne threats in its airspace. 

It confirmed that Dutch fighters as well as Polish and German forces were involved in the operation – it also confirmed that jets engaged a number of targets. 

https://t.co/JE2WvMlXTD pic.twitter.com/j3ZZJtqNWm

— SHAPE - NATO Allied Command Operations (@SHAPE_NATO) September 10, 2025

Rzeszow, as well as nearby Przemyśl, and further north Chelm, have direct train services which continue on to Kyiv. There is also a busy border road crossing at Medyka, near Przemyśl.  

Two Theories 

Among security sources, here and abroad, there are two theories being espoused in regard to why this happened. 

The first is that this was a conscious probing of NATO defences by Russia using the low-risk drones. As one source suggested, it is like bank robbers ringing in a false alarm to see how fast police respond.

All the diplomatic pronouncements across the EU this morning supported that view. 

A shahed drone. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The second theory, which was somewhat supported by comments by Russia’s ally Belarus, is that there was an issue with the navigation systems on the drones and this caused them to overshoot their targets in western Ukraine, at cities such as Lviv. 

Belarus said the drones had “lost their track” as a result of what it claimed was electronic jamming and interception by both Kyiv and Moscow.

That is not entirely implausible given the amount of jamming of GPS signals going on – it is understood Russia uses a system known as GLONASS which is a different satellite based navigation system from that used by western powers.

Regardless of the motives and reasons for what happened over Polish airspace last night – the positioning of military assets can be interpreted as messaging. 

As the oft quoted line from military theorist Carl von Clausewitz puts it: “War is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means”.

Strategically minded sources said that the timing could be linked to Ursula von der Leyen making her State of the Union speech today in Strasbourg and her recent pronouncements while touring military installations.

The concern for those same diplomatic and military sources is that Poland is sporting for a fight with Russia and that behind the scenes there may be efforts to contain any violent aspirations.

An indication of the next step will come soon as Poland has made a formal request to discuss the incident with NATO members under Article Four of the North Atlantic Treaty – the first phase of talks before mutual defence clause can be invoked under Article Five.