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IRELAND HAS FAILED to achieve its emissions reductions target set under the first carbon budget cycle, according to the Climate Change Advisory Council.
In 2022, the Dáil signed off on legally binding carbon budgets that allocate a set volume of emissions Ireland is allowed to produce in five-year cycles.
The amounts decrease over time and were intended to act as a ceiling on the emissions Ireland can afford to produce and still be able to reach important climate targets in 2030 and 2050.
The first carbon budget cycle, which covered the years 2021 to 2025, allowed for a total of 295 million tonnes (Mt) of emissions to be produced.
In its review, the Council said the country will overshoot this by about 10 Mt, adding that this will need to be paid back in the next budget period of 2026 to 2030, making it “increasingly difficult to achieve”.
The emissions limit is 200 Mt between 2026 and 2030 and 151 Mt between 2031 and 2035.
Progress in the Agriculture and Transport sectors, which collectively account for approximately 55% of Irish emissions, is proving “particularly slow and challenging”, the review states.
The Council called for increased expenditure on public transport and an increase in grants for less expensive electric vehicles (EVs).
Council chair Marie Donnelly said that while the roll out of retrofits in homes and the growth in the development of renewable energy are signs of progress, “we need to redesign how we commute, heat homes, and power the economy”.
“That means real investment in people, infrastructure, and communities, not more delay,” she said.
We have the opportunity and the resources to transform Ireland, both in terms of reducing emissions and preparing for future climate events.
“We must act now because if we don’t, we will pay the financial and societal price by losing out on secure and affordable energy, a healthier and more sustainable society, both today, and for future generations.”
Ireland also remains “substantially off track” in meeting its targets under the EU’s ‘Fit for 55′ plan which aims to reduce the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990.
Ireland, along with other EU member states, is signed up to various pieces of EU legislation and targets on climate action. These include the Renewable Energy Directive, the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation and the Effort Sharing Regulation.
So far, Ireland has failed to transpose elements of the Renewable Energy Directive and the Energy Efficiency Directive, despite them being in force across many other EU countries.
Other deadlines set in the Social Climate Fund Regulation have also been missed, including the requirement to submit a social climate plan by 30 June 2025.
Failure to meet targets will potentially result in substantial compliance costs, estimated to be in the range of €8 billion to €26 billion.
The Council said the biggest blockage to Ireland’s progress remains our dependence on
fossil fuels.
Last year, fossil fuel subsidies totalled €4.7 billion, including just under €1 billion in temporary measures in response to the rise in energy prices, such as energy credits.
The Council said that while increased spending on fossil fuel subsidies prevented some Irish households from falling into arrears, “increased fossil fuel subsidisation is an overtly short-term and blunt policy instrument that highlights the need to support a just energy transition”.
In 2024, environmental taxes totalled €5.5 billion, with households estimated to have paid €3.4 billion of these taxes, an increase on the €3 billion paid in 2023.
The previous year, households paid €3 billion in environmental taxes, but only received €408 million (or 14%) back in subsidies.
“The net effect of these measures is that they are encouraging the increase rather than reduction of greenhouse gases through the tax system,” the Council said.
The review also highlighted that energy poverty is a “significant issue in Ireland”, stating that measures like cutting indirect taxes or providing universal subsidies are poorly targeted as most of the revenue is spent compensating high-income households that have been least affected and a more targeted approach is required.
It said improved welfare payments would be more suitable as they are means-tested, and increasing the Pay Related Social Insurance credit is more targeted at lower earners and renters.
The latest figures from the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) show that 13% of domestic electricity customers were in arrears in May this year, matching the highest recorded arrears rate previously seen in October last year.
The review also pointed to the Energy Poverty Action Plan, which was published in December 2022 and set out a number of measures to support people with energy costs as well as longer-term actions to ensure anyone at risk of energy poverty could heat their homes.
The Council said the Energy Poverty Steering Group outlined progress on the actions in the report and called for a revised plan to be done “urgently” given the continued high cost of energy for households.
“While a consultation on the Revised Energy Poverty Action Plan closed in May 2024, disappointingly, a revised plan has still not been brought to the Government for approval and publication,” it states.
It called for the government to “urgently publish” the revised plan and conclude its work on the Social Climate Plan.
It also recommended that any future supports “be targeted to those in vulnerable circumstances, in fuel poverty and with a low income, as well as those in rental properties without the option of grants for retrofitting”.
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