Paul O'Donoghue

THERE’S A CELTIC Tiger spirit in the air, baby.

Ireland’s stock exchange has finally risen above its old record peak.

Technically, the Iseq has tipped above its all time high of just over 10,000 seen in 2007 a few times in the past year or so.

But they were always flights of fancy, with the exchange swiftly dipping under 10,000 again.

Obviously things can change quickly when it comes to equities, but the Irish stock exchange – also called Euronext Dublin these days – looks like it has finally burst through its glass ceiling – the index has jumped by nearly 10% in just over a month and is rapidly approaching 11,000.

(To add some further context to the above figures, when the stock exchange was formally established in 1988 the index at the time was set at 1,000 – the points in the index are to show how much the value has gone up in the intervening years).

The exchange’s slow recovery in the years since the financial crash was in contrast to exchanges across the US and the rest of Europe. While all plunged during the financial crisis which started in 2008, most had recovered by 2013 or 2014, and have long since eclipsed previous all time highs.

The Irish exchange was a notable laggard – particularly as its poor performance came amid a boom in the wider Irish economy.

While the index performed well during the global 2024 equities rally, investors had still yet to see signs of a consistent break through its previous 10,000 limit.

Which makes the timing of the recent surge all the more remarkable, given that the ISEQ faced a series of body blows in late 2023, with several of its biggest companies leaving in quick succession.

CRH, Flutter (the owners of Paddy Power) and Smurfit Kappa all moved their main listings to the US – together, the three accounted for a major chunk of the Irish equity market.

So how has the exchange finally locked in a new all time high, despite these setbacks?

Well, the obvious answer is – good results for the exchange’s most important companies. Let’s have a quick look through some of the more prominent ones.

Kerry gold 

Three stars of the show have been three of Ireland’s biggest companies – Ryanair, construction materials firm Kingspan and food business Kerry Group.

Ryanair’s shares plunged by about a fifth in July when the airline missed a profit estimate. The issue was attributed to the firm lowering prices in a bid to maintain passenger numbers, with the company warning that fares for its key summer months would be “materially lower” than in 2023.

While this was enough to spook investors at the time, it turned out to be more of a temporary hitch.

Most recently, Ryanair reported better than expected profits for the final three months of 2024 – €149 million versus just €60 million forecast. The company also said it’s predicting a solid 2025.

All of this contributed to a recovery in the company’s shares, which surged from under €14 in July to their current level of almost €21.

With a market capitalisation of about €22.5 billion, Ryanair accounts for almost a fifth of the value of the entire Irish stock exchange. The massive boost in its shares have led to the entire index shooting up.

It’s a similar story at Kerry Group and Kingspan, which have market capitalisations of €16.7 billion and €14.3 billion respectively. Again, by accounting for such a large stake of the market, improvements in their shares have a major impact on the value of the index.

Kerry shares have been steadily climbing over the last year and jumped last week after the group reported strong profitability growth in its preliminary 2024 results.

Kingspan’s stock dropped from about €85 at the start of November to €67 after it warned of flat earnings for 2024 – only for its shares to surge last week after it revealed its profits actually rose by 6% last year.

Combined, these three companies account for much of the Irish stock exchange’s gains.

The banks 

Also among the big winners have been AIB and Bank of Ireland, the two largest retail lenders in the country, which have a combined market capitalisation of almost €27 billion.

Profits at both companies were turbo-charged by the European Central Bank raising interest rates towards the end of 2022 and start of 2023. As explained previously, this gave Bank of Ireland and AIB a massive return on the billions in customer savings they had sitting on deposit.

While the ECB has started cutting interest rates, they’re still above pre-2022 levels, and so still helping AIB and Bank of Ireland make major profits.

During the week Bank of Ireland announced it made full-year pretax to €1.86 billion in 2024, almost identical to the €1.94 billion in 2023. Considering interest rates were higher in 2023, this was a good performance, with the company saying a strong Irish economy leading to it estimating healthy 2026 and 2027 results.

The firm’s shares have spiked, rising from just under €9 at the start of 2025, to almost €11.50 now.

AIB has seen similar growth, with its stock rising from €5.30 in January to €6.63 as things stand.

Other big hitters 

It’s a little-reported fact that Ireland has a housing crisis. You might have read something about it once or twice.

A key cause, of course, has been the inability of developers to build fast enough. A golden opportunity for Glenveagh Properties and Cairn Homes, Ireland’s only two listed housebuilders.

These companies account for a much smaller share of the market, together worth just over €2 billion.

Still, the share price of both has surged over the last year, up by 21% and 37% in Glenveagh and Cairn respectively as of the time of writing.

In January, Glenveagh reported strong revenue growth for 2024 and revealed that its pre-tax profits doubled, rising €55 million in 2023 to €113 million.

Cairn also had a good 12 months – its sales increased by 29% in 2024. Operating profits also rose by a third to €150m, and the company said it expects 2025 to be another strong year. For a look at the scale of the business, it’s worth noting that new home commencements nearly doubled – from 2,200 to 4,100 – during 2024.

Not everyone is doing so well on the exchange – notably, Glanbia shares dropped by almost a quarter of their value during the week after the company warned of a dip in earnings.

Ires REIT, Ireland’s biggest private landlord, has seen its shares largely in the doldrums over the last year.

But at the end of the day, these are smaller stocks – the biggest, Glanbia, is currently worth just under €3 billion.

Compare that to Bank of Ireland, the smallest of the five main companies we discussed, which currently has a market cap of €11.4 billion.

That’s essentially what the Irish stock exchange’s surge has come down to – it has been mostly driven by the first five companies mentioned.

Ryanair, Kingspan, Kerry Group and the two banks, AIB and Bank of Ireland.

If these companies continue to do well, there’s every chance Ireland’s stock exchange will continue setting new record highs. Well, as long as these firms stay on the index.