THE RESULT OF the Fianna Fáil candidate vote won’t be remembered if Jim Gavin wins out in the presidential race – but it will be brought up again if the former Dublin manager flops. 

That is the thinking of a number of key figures in government, both within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. 

Gavin won out today with 41 votes to MEP Billy Kelleher’s 29 votes. 

However, the decent vote Kelleher managed to bring home has tongues wagging within the party that this just might be the first chink in the armour of Martin’s leadership.

There has long been a narrative among those in Fianna Fáil that Martin rules the roost.

He makes the decisions, he calls the shots, he tells his party members to jump and they should ask him how high. 

It has irked many in the party, for years.

They have long called for more consultation with both the parliamentary party and grassroots members when it comes to key party decisions. 

Martin’s game plan

And there is no clearer example of this than with Martin’s game plan for the presidential candidate process. There was months of speculation, many names mentioned as possibilities, but alas, the party members were none the wiser. 

Until, Martin finally revealed his chosen one. 

This morning, some members of the party that spoke to The Journal told us that today would be a big test of Martin’s leadership.

The unexpectedly large vote share secured by Kelleher brings that test into play.

After the vote, both Billy Kelleher and Martin played down the significance of Kelleher receiving 40% of the secret ballot vote.

Some TDs who publicly backed Jim Gavin conceded privately that Martin and the Fianna Fáil leadership had gotten the internal communications wrong, and that more input from membership would have been a good thing.

As a result, today’s vote is being seen as a clear message being sent to the party leader  that many in the parliamentary party are not happy with how he handled the presidential process.

Micheál Martin himself, however, did not publicly entertain the notion of a split within the party.

Speaking to reporters outside Leinster House this afternoon, Martin, in reference to the front page of the Irish Independent today, said:“There was a referendum on Micheál Martin’s leadership. It was less than a year ago. It was called the general election, and I think people gave their answer.”

“Hear, hear,” said party whip Mary Butler beside him.

A short while beforehand, Kelleher himself also downplayed any suggestions of an internal split.

“No. Look, you have an election, the result stands…I fully support and endorse Jim Gavin. I will canvass every day I can to ensure that he is elected because he shares the values that I share.”

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Likewise, Cork East TD James O’Connor, who was one of the first to back Kelleher, said he “wouldn’t read too much” into the narrative of a split.

Asked if the party leadership could have handled the contest better, O’Connor said:

“I don’t think it’s fair to bring that into this dynamic.”

He added: “We’re very, very proud of the vote that Billy secured. 29 members of the [parliamentary party] supported him, and I think that’s something that we have to take on board.

“I’m absolutely delighted to see the support Billy was given. But you know, Mr. Gavin has won by a significant margin. We have to respect that, and he is a fantastic candidate, and each and every one of us are going to put our shoulder to the wheel to try and win the presidency for Jim Gavin as a Fianna Fáil candidate.”

But there is no getting away from it, the stakes are now high for Martin. 

If Gavin wins the race for the Áras, all will be well for the Fianna Fáil leader. He can return to his parliamentary party with an ‘I told you so’. 

But if the former Dublin manager flops, the blame will be placed at Martin’s feet.

While it won’t mean any immediate threat to his leadership, some believe it just might be the first dent in a long time to his judgement.

Once that is brought into question, things can begin to unravel rather quickly in politics.