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The last time tariffs like this were imposed it led to the Great Depression, ministers warn

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said “recessionary trends” could be felt across the world due to the US tariff fallout.

LAST UPDATE | 3 Apr

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MINISTER Jack Chambers has said the extent of the tariffs that were announced by the US President Donald Trump has not been seen for 100 years.

Speaking to reporters at the Department of Finance in Dublin today, he said it is predicted the tariffs will have a serious impact on consumer confidence, investment confidence, and could potentially increase costs for ordinary citizens. 

Giving a stark statement, he said: 

“The last time the scope or extent that this was tried globally in trading terms, was in the early around 1930 which led to the Great Depression. In fact, the tariffs that are being imposed now are in excess of that.”

On a more positive note, he said it is a more diverse global economy, stating that Ireland is coming to this from a point of strength. 

“But what’s been announced yesterday, and the extent of it hasn’t been seen for 100 years, and it will be a great disruptor to the trading environment as we know today.” 

His comments come after Taoiseach Micheál Martin said  “recessionary trends” could be felt across the world due to the US tariff fallout. 

It’s a political challenge as much as it is an economic one.

Tánaiste Simon Harris told RTÉ’s Prime Time tonight that, while Ireland is taking a “calm, measured” approach, the days and weeks ahead will show whether Trump is willing to do the same.

He said that the tariff fallout may not only have implications for the immediate future, but for “the next generation in terms of the economic model for this country, the European Union, and for global trade”.

Harris, however, would not give away a specific percentage that Ireland would be happy with, as it would be “foolish” to negotiate on television.

‘Weather the storm’

Standing next to Ireland’s EU Commissioner and former finance minister, Michael McGrath, the Taoiseach said Ireland will “weather the storm”. 

McGrath was at pains to reiterate that the focus at European level is on the negotiations between the US and the EU. 

Areas such as support packages for businesses and countermeasures up for consideration will only happen if the negotiations fail, said McGrath.

“We do need to bring this back to people. People get hurt when tariffs are imposed, people can lose their jobs, prices can go up, the price of medicines can go up.

“Lots of bad things happen when tariffs are imposed in an unjustified and unilateral manner like this so the EU is not at the point of looking at other instruments. Our focus is on trade and getting a good outcome in negotiations,” he said. 

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Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said in terms of when tax take implications might be felt, it will depend on whether the tariffs are permanent or whether a negotiated agreement can be reached between the US and EU, he said.

The first indications will come through a fall in consumer sentiment, people holding back on investment and also through a roll back in pay increases for workers, he added. 

Speaking about job losses and a fall off in job creation, he predicted that would be felt in the medium term rather than in the short term. 

An anxious public 

When asked what his message is to members of the public, who are feeling anxious about what is to come and who might be questioning making big life decisions, Donohoe said that the affects on people will vary from person-to-person. 

Some workers will be employed in sectors that are significantly affected by this as their employers in Ireland do a lot of business in the US, he said.

Others might work in companies that trade within the EU or domestically, and are therefore unlikely to be significantly or directly affected by the big changes, said the minister. 

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He said the government understands the “anxiety and apprehension that many people are facing”.

“But we are in an economy in which there are so many people at work, which there is still a high demand for workers and in which we have public finances that are safe, and funds that put in place to provide safety in the future,” he said.

“We know this is a time of apprehension for lots of people, but we do want to confirm today that at this point in the year, things are on track, and we’re going to be working to put together plans to try to be of help,” said Donohoe. 

Early days

Earlier today, the Taoiseach said it was “somewhat early” to be talking about support for businesses, adding it was “not the end of the story”.

“I think it’s somewhat early yet to be talking in terms of supports,” he added.

“I think this is not the end of the story. It’s not too late for negotiations. I think there is some part of this yet to be determined.

“I understand that Commissioner (Maros) Sefcovic will be engaging (US) Secretary of Commerce in the next number of days, if not tomorrow.

“So, my understanding is we had the announcement last evening. My view is that it will be a period of engagement.

“So, we have to see where this settles and every crisis is different, so the kind of supports that were in the previous crisis may not apply in this case,” said Martin.

McGrath warned that if the relationship goes wrong between the US and the EU, the consequences are “multifaceted and will be felt everywhere”, stating that it is not just big business that will feel the impacts, but also smaller businesses downstream and those in the supply chains.  

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The message from the Taoiseach is that this is early days and it is still unclear what the outcomes might be. 

“It is important that we take on board that this has some distance to go yet… no doubt that the world is changed and the old order is gone, but the new order has not been determined,” he added. 

Martin said the feedback so far from the US is that negotiations are the preferred route forward.

“The next 48 hours will tell a lot. What I get from the President’s speech is very much sort of wanting to engage, and signalling a desire to engage, to negotiate a sensible settlement here.”

He also said it will be “extremely difficult” to get the right balance in making a “collective response” from across European countries to the tariffs imposed by the US.

He said that is why the EU is seeking to go down a negotiation pathway.

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