The Explainer: Did the polls get it right in the US election?

THE COUNTING MAY still be going on in the US, but what we do know is that Joe Biden is set to become the next President of America.

In the months and weeks running up to last week’s event, we turned to polls to tell us what to expect. The polls had Biden looking likely to win Florida and North Carolina – which didn’t happen. They also said he had a chance in states like Texas, which also didn’t happen. 

Meanwhile, in the swing states that he did win, the margin was often smaller than expected. Nat Cohen, who covers polling for the New York Times, even went so far as to say that the polls this time around were worse than in 2016, when people thought Hillary Clinton was set for a win. 

But did the polls get it wrong? And is it possible for the polls to get it fully right?

To answer these questions and more, we spoke to Dr Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in politics and in the School of Media at TU Dublin, who is also an independent pollster.

Background reading:

• Did the US election polls get it right this time around? Here’s what we know so far (TheJournal.ie)
• How Data Failed Us in Calling an Election (New York Times)
• FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 election forecast (FiveThirtyEight)
• The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy (The Atlantic)
• Opinion: Don’t be fooled: The polls weren’t wrong in 2016, the analysis was (TheJournal.ie Voices)

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This episode was put together by presenter and executive producer Christine Bohan  producer Aoife Barry, producer and technical operator Nicky Ryan.