RELATIONS BETWEEN CANADA and the United States have reached a low point not seen since the colonial era. 

The relationship between the two North American nations has been largely positive since Canada gained autonomy from Britain.

Following the American Revolutionary War in the early 1800s, the newly independent United States and the British controlled Canadian territory went to war over Britain’s refusal to withdraw forces from south of the Great Lakes.

Since then, the only major territorial dispute came in 1903 when a row erupted over who controlled Alaska, which eventually went the way of the US after Britain relented. But Canadian anger at the time was aimed less at the Americans and more at the British for that perceived betrayal. 

Now, Canadians are living through “dark days”, according to the country’s new Prime Minister.  

Since his election last year, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada while also imposing tariffs that have set off a chaotic trade war between the once close allies.

“I think Canada would be much better off being the 51st state because we lose $200 billion a year with Canada. And I’m not going to let that happen,” Trump told Fox News last month. 

Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has described the newly aggressive American posture towards his country as “an existential threat”, while stressing that Canada will never be America’s “51st state”.

Canada’s incoming Prime Minister Mark Carney has kept up the fighting rhetoric since being elected as leader of the ruling Liberal Party yesterday. 

“Canada never ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Carney told Liberal Party supporters in Ottowa yesterday.

“The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” he said, adding “these were dark days brought on by a country we can no longer trust.

“We have made this the greatest country in the world and now our neighbours want to take us. No way,” Carny told the crowd. 

“We’re all being called to stand up for… the Canadian way of life.”

Trade war 

Even before Donald Trump took office in January, he had declared his intention to impose high tariffs on imports from Canada, complaining that the US was “losing” billions of dollars due to its trade deficit with its northern neighbours. 

Trump has also swung between imposing and then suspending tariffs on goods coming across the northern border of the US. 

Canada, which last year imported $349.4 billion worth of US goods, has in turn responded with its own tariffs in the ongoing trade war with its longtime ally. 

US goods imports from Canada in 2024 totalled $412.7 billion.

As far back as November 2024, Trump had promised to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on his first day in the Oval Office. 

On 1 February, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% on Chinese goods. Trump declared a national emergency – ostensibly over undocumented immigration and drug trafficking – in order to do so. 

Trump then suspended the tariffs on Canada and Mexico on 3 February after discussions with the leaders of both countries.  

Thirty days later, the tariffs came into effect, although the levy on Canadian energy was revised down to 10%. 

The Canadian government retaliated by imposing tariffs on more than $100 billion worth of American goods. 

Trump then suspended the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods related to the auto industry, before expanding the suspension a day later on many imports from the two countries. 

Canada then suspended a planned second wave of tariffs on US goods. 

Trudeau, who Trump has repeatedly called the “governor” of Canada, said recently the US President wants “to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy. Because that will make it easier to annex us”. 

’51st state’ threats 

Trump has also been issuing regular threats about annexing Canada and making it America’s “51st state”, something Trudeau said would never happen. 

The New York Times has reported that during discussions held between Trump and Trudeau at the time, the US President said he did not believe the treaty that delineates the US-Canada border was valid.

In bilateral talks between US and Canadian officials, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick also told his Canadian counterpart Dominic LeBlanc that Trump wanted to tear up agreements related to the sharing of lakes and rivers. 

On top of that, Trump also wants to kick Canada out of the intelligence-sharing alliance known as the Five Eyes, which also includes the UK, Australia and New Zealand. 

Trudeau has said “Canadians face from our neighbour an existential challenge”, while Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said last week that, based on conversations she’s had with US officials, Canada is taking Trump’s threats of annexation “very seriously”. 

The USA section in an alcohol shop in Nova Scotia after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

“We didn’t ask for this fight. But Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves,” Carney said on Sunday, making an ice hockey reference.  

“So the Americans, they should make no mistake, in trade as in hockey, Canada will win,” he said.

Unelected Prime Minister

Carney, the former head of the Canadian and British central banks who campaigned on a promise to stand up to Trump, may not have the job for long though. 

Elections must be held by 20 October, but Canada could well see a snap poll within weeks. Current opinion polls have the opposition Conservatives as slight favourites.

However, data released from the Angus Reid polling firm on Wednesday shows Canadians see Carney as the favourite choice to face down Trump, potentially offering the Liberals a boost.

Of respondents, 43% said they trusted Carney the most to deal with Trump, with 34% backing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

Carney’s path to the premiership has been unconventional.

He does not hold a seat in the Canadian parliament and has never served in any elected role. 

He also holds Irish and British citizenship, which he has said he will revoke upon taking office. 

Carney made a fortune as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs before entering the Canadian civil service.

He has cast himself as someone well able to manage financial crises, having presided over the Bank of Canada during the 2008 economic meltdown, and the Bank of England during the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. 

Since leaving the Bank of England in 2020, he has served as a United Nations envoy working to get the private sector to invest in climate-friendly technology and has held private sector roles.

“He is unproven in the crucible of an election,” said Cameron Anderson, a political scientist at Ontario’s Western University.

But he said Carney’s tough anti-Trump rhetoric “is what Canadians want to hear from their leaders.”

They are “viewing these things in an existential way.”

With reporting from AFP and Press Association