Feather our nests with what? Not euros, that’s for sure. Sterling? Hmmm, another dicey one. Dollars? Gold? Shares in Facebook?

Or maybe the Yuan?

Agree completely. To wind down the debt that is there will take a generation of decline.

This is a western problem mostly, the free market theory ran amok and allowed people to rob and twist the system completely. What may happen is that as the west declines massively over the next 10 years, the Asian economies will take up the demand, buy western brands and take them over. America might still have a chance to manage the decline but Europe is really fupped.

Dave where the hell are you getting a 1000% to GDP?

The Economist: 2011 Ireland & Icelands overall debt at 8 to 10 times GDP.

Anyone who thinks we can get through this without a default should be medicated immediately.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2011/07/world-debt-guide

Does that include the foreign banks in the IFSC, if it does it’s a pointless figure.

Gary Ireland isn’t the only country in Europe that has a financial services sector !!!

No it isn’t but it has a large one in comparison to it’s GDP.

I do not put much stock in the 1000% figure, it is distorted by the IFSC. The figure of personal, private and Irish co’s excluding the IFSC of around 400% is firmer one. Still an incredible amount of money.

That it is Fagan’s

Agreed Dave, but I wouldn’t mind if everyone started from scratch ! But the bankers, politicians, will all remain at an untouchable level. The rest of us will be the ones who struggle.

Ha, class comment! :)

I agree. That’s definitely the funniest and most apt comment of the week.

Very good Clyde

Correct. As the fiscal compact does not involve all member and is not a proper treaty, enforcing it via the ECJ is dubious, to put it mildly.

Then again, the treaty is not about europe, or stability. It is about Germany and german voters. It is no coincidence that germany is the only signatory who will not face extra austerity measures to be compliant with the terms of the treaty.

I think because they know that the treaty will never be implemented. Just imagine the reaction if with the depth of economic disaster in the Eurozone, next January all the countries in Europe, bar Finland, started cutting their spending in line with the treaty. It would be a continent wide slowdown, the Euro would collapse in value.

If this treaty is implemented then the Markets are going to wash their hands of the Eurozone economies. It really doesn’t matter what way we vote, what way any country votes.

The ECB is going to have to break every one if its constraints if it wants the Euro to survive.

No offence lads but this sounds like the ‘Freeman of the land’ kinda nonsense. Though I’ll go and check with people who would know.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Freeman_on_the_land

I never saw that before , of course you are quite right . I am not a big admirer opf Cameron , but he has stood up for the people he governs. That in my opinion is true statemanship

petes, that’s possible but what’s also possible are multiple different scenarios. it’s changing daily. and if Greece leaves the Eurozone and bounces back fairly swiftly, it could be an attractive way to go for other countries facing years and years of no growth an austerity.

Hey Declan, do you really think they could bounce back swiftly? I have no idea how they could. I suppose they could turn into a tax haven or something. Hopefully they won’t and we can. I always reckoned becoming a country-wide data haven with loads of privacy controls enshrined in the constitution might be a good way forward.

It is a masssive problem but Greece has to go, the alt. is to stay in perpetual economic depression, or the EU to permanently subsidize them. It can’t grow in the Euro.

Greece has low personal debt, and the state debt would be wiped out by default. They would get aid from Europe and others, they’ll have it hard but they’ll have a future. In the Euro, they have no future and eventual social collapse and chaos. Might as well go for surgery and get better, as lie in agony for many years to come.

Alleged by who? Is this like yesterday when you were saying the Fiscal compact will change our corporate tax rate, when it clearly doesn’t.
I’m alleging you’re stirring the pot to scare people into a no vote.

Alleged by Colm McCarthy, Dan O’Brien, David McWilliams, in the Irish press, international press. Were you leaving in Ireland at that time?
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ecbforced-run-on-our-banks-led-to-bailout-2628449.html
With respect to the treaty leading to Ireland losing control of its corporate tax rates. I presented with multiple sources on this yesterday. If you choose to ignore these that’s up to you. I’d like to know what Ireland is getting itself into.

So Sean we’ve gone from alleged to “widespread suspicions”. Is there any evidence for this at all?
Btw I’m not saying it’s impossible but just because someone says it doesn’t make it true, they need to back it up. And I expect better from economists as they should be using facts and figures if they want to allege this kind of thing.

Brian Linehan went on BBC4 and stated that the ECB forced a run on Irish banks. McCarthy, O’Callaghan, McWilliams have repeated this claim. Yet the ECB has never slapped the down or even denied this to be the case.

The ECB abused their position then as they are doing now in Greece.

Okay while there is no evidence for the ECB causing a run on the Irish banks I can where McCarthy, O’Callaghan and McWilliams are coming from. But I’m not seeing why the ECB would do this with Greece, it would be far far too risky.

If the BoE issued a statement that it was witholding funds from Lloyds/TSB because it had concerns regarding it’s solvency, there would be a run on Lloyds tomorrow.
BoE would not do this as it would be irresponsible to do so.
The ECB is now blatantly yielding political power and attempting to influence political decision making. Democracy is ceasing to be even an afterthought in Europe now.

Well I have no idea what really happened though turns out the ECB were entirely correct while our own government were claiming the opposite. I appreciate they wouldn’t want to cause a panic but I get the feeling FF were running around like headless chickens hoping the problem would go away somehow.

The ECB’s German friendly monetary policies from the birth of the Euro and interventions during this crisis have been damaging for Ireland and particularly Irelands taxpayers.
The fiscal union treaty is the beginning of a process to establish a similar unaccountable body to dictate fiscal policy. It doesn’t require much imagination to see how damaging this will be for Ireland.

Bang on!

The more we go down this road the more I think everyone is wrong.

So what if our bluff is called? What if we default and those next few years are even worse than now. Will you still congratulate those politicians who took that undoubtedly brave decision to jump over that precipice?

I’m actually curious here. Not just being rethorical.

A no vote still doesn’t address the 16Bn budget deficit, even if Paul’s scenario came to pass and Ireland was to receive funds after a No vote. Ergo, vote yes for austerity, vote no for austerity.

While you are correct about addressing budget defecits whether we vote yes or no, a yes vote will require a further adjustment of 6 billion in 2015, followed by a further 20 years of additional adjustments to bring our debt to GDP ratio to 60%.

The killer in all of this is that no allowance has been made in irelands case for the banking debt we were forced to take on to save european bankers skins. This debt, which does not belong to the irish people, will be included in the calculations for meeting these draconian targets.

oh, and we’ll be fined if we mis them.

I’ll be voting NO. A second injustice lasting 20 years in relation to the banking debt is just as unacceptable as the first.

As will the 11bn contribution to the EMS fund!

We will have a partial default, that is a certainty. Thanks to the Bank guarantee treachery by Lenny and co. we have an unsustainable debt in a world full of unsustainable debt. Austerity will not save us or the Euro at this stage, the banks should have been wound down over the last few years, the pain should have been taken, with the ECB pumping new cash in to stabilize. Instead debt was piled upon debt, the ECB looks like being the first central bank in history at risk of insolvency. The economies of much of Europe still decline but now with many years of onerous debt on them, greater deficits and still bankrupt banks.

Greece is reported to be limiting daily withdrawls to 50 euro a pop. What will happen when Spain, is calling for a multi trillion bailout, never mind Italy, and Belgium and Portugal and a 2nd bailout here. Even France and Germany will need help with their banks. This is a currency crisis, the problems extend everywhere that currency is.

This is going to come to a stage, where the rest of the world is going to come in and tell the EU to cop on, that they are risking a global economic collapse and to start a process of managed disengagement for the countries not suited to the Euro, with IMF, American and Asian help.

Patrick i may be wrong but i believe the base currancy throughout the world is the dollar.That is the reason for the amount given in dollars when addressing an international audience

which looks better – 1 TRILLION DOLLARS or ). 0.7 trillion euro?

People harp on about scare tactics, but this is the reality for the Greeks at the moment, and if Ireland votes no, it won’t take long to be Irish reality too once a precedent is set! like it or not!

The Greeks made a pact with the devil, as did we… They are suffering the wrath of the devil now because they are standing alone against him! together we stand divided we fall! This is the truth of it!

Funny so that Greece are the first country after ratifying the Fiscal Compact? The stability treaty ain’t stabilising Greece, in fact the reverse is happening!

You need to go back to the drawing board Petes Tuppence, Greece have already ratified the treaty, tell me, why ‘stability’ has it brought them? Why would Ireland’s fate be different? This treaty will see half the country thrown into the pits of indefinite poverty.

Ah cmon Diarmuid and ailis
The fiscal compact has nothing, NOTHING to do with Greece’s problems.
You rabid no voters need to get a grip. Ireland is not Greece

Thank you so much David, you’re of course spot in, nor has it anything to do with Irelands problems or solution. It is an insignificance to Europes problems and will not solve them either. But yes the YES side are the ones scaremongering with the Greek situation?

Of all the British Papers, the guardian is the last one to scaremonger. This is reality folks!

If David Higgins is saying it, it must be true ;-) ;-) ;-)

You’re right Diarmuid, especially about the scaremongering. The government think so little of the Irish people that they think they can scare us like small children with talk of bogeymen coming etc. the no side are pretty good at it too. What I want is someone to come out and with no bullshit, tell us the REAL pro’s and cons

Absolutely David, just think of it this way. The “stabilities” treaty way of solving Greece at this very moment would be to start sending them enormous fines. That sound like a solution to you?

*stability treaties

This has nothing to do with the Treaty vote. The treaty if passed with 99% Yes, if it was considered the greatest economic policy of the last century, by all sides, then it still would not save Greece, Spain and Italy, the French banks and a hell of a lot of German ones.

The financial crisis here, is primarily down to a corrupt and incompetent Govt. over the last 13 years, we could have avoided the worst of it.

For the rest of Europe, there is a divide between those who are trapped in the overly strong Euro, places like Greece and Spain, Italy, Portugal, and even France and Belgium to a degree, and the others who are benefiting to an artificial degree like Germany and Holland.

Spain and Italy are going to need bailouts, when Greece goes, they will be the next to be looked at. The Euro will then be on the hook for trillions upon trillions, either print or break up. Either way the value of the Euro is sliding on the long term.

So true Dave – I just talked today with a collegue about how to vote. Well how the heck do you know what to vote??? The columns YES are very good and the NO as well….this threating practice going on now does NOT help – why? Because you DO NOT know what is the truth! Is it really as bad lets say getting out of Europe or is it only that they are scared of their positions and wages…where is the TRUTH!!! You cant trust nothing, so I guess it ALWAYS comes back to your guts…as these are always right…still dont know what to vote though ;-)

Kevin I have to admit I can’t follow how this British newspaper headline equates to Europe trying to scare us. All our debts only make a tiny fraction of total European debt so I don’t imagine they’d care enough. Our referendum on this Fiscal Compact is a non story in Europe.

Gary, we don’t need a newspaper headline to prove europe is trying to scare us. We have the blackmail clause to prove europe is trying to scare us.

Trueleft. Sorry but I find it very difficult to listen to your point that Europe is supposedly trying to scare us while you at the same time use the phrase ‘blackmail clause’. You obviously have a very selective opinion on what scaremongering is.
Of course you haven’t explained why Europe would need to blackmail or scare us in the first place.

Petes tuppence .
You sayu you are fed up of scare tactics …..
and then go on to use scare tactics . vbote yes do as you are told or else ….. kcuf ffo with your bully boy comments .
We need to VOTE NO . Stand on our own abilities, stand up to the brutes trying to make us succomb to austerity . Vote NO.

Dave Harris
You are dead right of course, but Greece is a useful tool to scare the undecided here into a yes vote .

Ah Susie Susie Susie. I’m actually going to agree with you for once (well in a way), it is Vote Yes for austerity but it’s Vote No for even more austerity. Not great choices I grant you. And you came in a down-voted me straight away, where’s the love?

Gary Clowry
What are you talking about ? down vote you ? Paranoid are you ?
Anyway You are saying that the government are bullying people by using Greece as a scare tactic to vote yes ! No body I know has ever said that austerity can be avoided .
I have always said that Austerity can not be avoided , but if we vote yes austerity will be written into our constitution forever and a day , whereas if we vote no , austerity will be short lived and there will be room for growth and recovery, That is why I advocate the vote No.

The Euro will either collapse, drastically reduce in size or be so devalued that it will destroy much of the debt problem, ie drop below parity with dollar etc.

What ever is going to happen, the 17 state Euro Zone is over. The Greek economy is looking at being in severe crisis in the Euro for at least the next 10 years. Never mind Spain, Italy etc etc. That is not sustainable, economically or socially.

They can’t aoife. The treaty MUST be ratified by the end of the year. So all we need to do is vote No until the time runs out and its dead in the water.

The treaty will never be implemented.

Bankia, one of Spain’s largest bank is down 30% in the last day. Cash is flying out of it it’s branches.

The treaty calls for restrained spending, well the reality at the moment is that the ECB is going to have to start creating new Euro’s and piling them in to the banks of Europe, spending that money on a massive scale, via investment and growth/demand boosting measures.

The treaty however will demand that all countries in Europe bar Finland, who is not breaching these uber strict rules, and those in economic prog’s like ourselves to start cutting spending next Jan. This will mean all of Europe will be aiming to grow via exports, as all its trading partners cut spending and thus growth.

It is absolutely bat doo crazy, even if several Euro zone economies were not on the verge of complete meltdown. For that reason the rest of the world are not going to allow the EU to implement this, as it will only bring the rest of the world down with them.

Well no Aoife. If we don’t vote Yes we just get excluded from the ESM etc, other countries can just ignore us. This isn’t an EU treaty so unanimity is not required.

its probably to get the figure up to a trillion; seeing as the euro is still worth more than the dollar

You living in la la land? Printing the punt? Backed up by what ? The gold in the Wicklow hills!

Mcbab, You mean backed with the same thing the Euro is?

We are witnessing the slow motion crash of the Euro.
It’s mindboggling, that some, lemming-like, want to cling to the sinking wreckage of this failing currency.
Ireland has been treated terribly by Europe’s institutions. The ECB precipitated a run on Irelands banks to force us into a bailout. Ireland accepted punative rates for a bailout. Forced to pay 100 cent on the Euro to bondholders. Many who paid a fraction of this on secondary markets.
Yet, like a stupid dog, FF & the rest of the establishment insist we lie at the feet of our master. No matter how badly we’re treated.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKBRE84G0DL20120517?irpc=932

I think the Euro will survive but there will be 5-6 countries that will be leaving it over the next few years. Tiny little Greece, only half a percent of Global GDP is rattling the very foundation of the currency – Why? People know that the real problems lie in Italy and Spain, who combined are 14 times larger, that the banks of France and Germany are underwater and that to bailout the banking system the ECB is going to have to open up the liquidity tap via printing money on a truly massive scale. Turning the Euro in to a peso. Better to let Greece go, support them, support those takinghits and stabilize, then do same for Spain, Italy, Portugal and ourselves.

Time to take one for the Euro team people, the good little European shite won’t last a second when we are looking at permanent exclusion from the markets thanks to Euro membership and the currency is retrenching back to economies that are very similar in management, social order and style to Germany and Holland.

Presumably a very strong peg will stay to the Euro but the days of the 17 nation currency are well and truly over.

Try Luxemburg!! This weeks episode of Panorama (BBC iPlayer) reveals all. According to Panorama Luxemburg is complicit in tax avodiance for multi-nationals.

Shit in their eyes, me thinks!!

I’m not so sure you’ve thought this through.

Does it make a difference?!!

It’s 1 trillion dollars whoa hahaha! Dr evil little finger to mouth.

Trillion

A trillion ( a thousand billion)

Well if Greece fill out the necessary documentation and can find one or two guarantors, I’m sure Anglo will approve the loan. Ah wait – its 2012 not 2008!

What trillion dollar bill? 