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Slowing exports sees Central Bank slash growth forecast for 2012

Image: Aquila via Flickr

THE CENTRAL BANK has cut its forecast for economic growth in Ireland this year from 1.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent citing slowing demand for Irish exports.

The Bank says that the domestic economy will remain in recession this year in its latest quarterly economic bulletin.

It states that it expects gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of all goods and services produced – growth will be around 0.5 per cent. Previously it had predicted 1.8 per cent GDP growth.

Meanwhile, gross national product (GNP) – the value of all services supplied by Irish residents – is predicted to decline by around 0.7 per cent. GNP is considered by some to be the more accurate barometer of economic performance in a country.

CSO figures in December showed that the Irish economy had shrank by 1.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2011 – making Ireland the worst performing economy in the European Union.

The Bank attributed the revision to a “weaker short term prospects for external demand” and said that the depth and duration of the current global economic crisis would be crucial to the prospects for Ireland’s own economy over the next year or so.

It cited the strong performance of  Irish exports in the first quarter of last year which was reflected worldwide but so too was the significant slowdown in exports in the remainder of the year.

“The slowdown in the external environment  has occurred against the background of an  intensification of the sovereign debt crisis, the effects of which has now broadened beyond  the financial system to the wider economy,” the Bank also said.

However despite the forecasts, the Central Bank said that it expected “a pick-up in growth in 2013″, forecasting that there will be an increase of around 2.1 per cent in GDP terms and 1 per cent in GNP.

It also said that it expected the government to reach its target of reducing the deficit to 8.6 per cent of GDP.

“On the face of it, the consolidation measures announced in the Budget, and the somewhat better starting position for 2012, should allow the targeted reduction of the deficit to 8.6 per cent of GDP to take place, but the pattern of growth will clearly determine developments to a degree,” the Bank said.

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Comments (20 Comments)

  • Norman Hunter 20 days ago #
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    Nice of the Central Bank to catch up with what IMF and other International commentators have been saying about the expected level of growth in the country.Even Enda might revise downward the figure he has been insisting on.

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  • Kerry Blake 20 days ago #
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    Yeah. The 0.5% was what the troika forecast last month when they were over here checking the books. What is even more scary is the CB claiming that next year there will be growth of 2.1%. Where did they pluck that figure from?

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    • Neil Kettles 20 days ago #
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      No one knows what criteria they use to come up with their forecasts! A lucky dip would deliver as much accuracy as those clowns! Getting paid big money for coming up with basic drivel’s the sad part. Some Guys get all the luck!!

    • Karl Doyle 20 days ago #
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      Same place Lucinda made up the millions of jobs figure, cuckoo land.

  • Gerard Murphy 20 days ago #
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    Noonan and the powers that be are involved in a war of words….

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  • Jim Hunt 20 days ago #
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    When you change your forecast, you’re no longer forecasting, you’re just guessing. The Muppets in the Central Bank and the Department of Finance aren’t kidding anyone.

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  • Paul Mallon 20 days ago #
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    ” sovereign debt crisis” shouldn’t he have said “banking to sovereign debt crisis”

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  • Tigerisinthezoo 20 days ago #
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    They said the same back in 2010. Theyre not forecasting. Theyre hoping. The real figure is GNP. It has shown a big negative trend for quite a while. I can’t see where they are getting 1% GNP for 2013 when it is likely that more cuts are on the way and more people leaving the country.
    It’s only a matter of time before a default has to be negotiated on the bank debt. Yet the gap in the public finances is still huge and has to be closed by ourselves. However can it be closed by soley relying on exports. I doubt it. There has to be some incentive for the national economy to grow.

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  • hughsheehy 20 days ago #
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    Aargh…the economy is shrinking. Let’s tax it more!

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  • D Burns 20 days ago #
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    The real winners in all of this are the primitive, indigenous tribes of the World who never had the misfortune to get caught up in the rat race, that is modern day Capitalism.

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    • Burned Toast 20 days ago #
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      Yeah, I’d still prefer to be living here with all the, you know, hospitals and schools and stuff, than stuck in the jungle eating my cousin for dinner.

  • Tony Skillington 20 days ago #
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    That’s exactly what they will do Hugh…if we can’t grow our way to the targets set by the troika, they’ll beat it out if us in tax…the 2013 budget will be worse than last Decembers…its going to be 2013 before we see any real signs of us emerging from this almighty economic shit storm!

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  • Aydo 20 days ago #
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    Reason to leave Ireland just keep mounting up so fast

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  • James Ohare 20 days ago #
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    A shrinking economy means one thing…more austerity. Be warned.

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  • Eugene O' Neill 20 days ago #
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    That’s the problem when you put all your eggs in one basket,Were relying only on one thing to make our economy grow, Exports.We have to be looking at domestic growth that will give domestic job’s and supporting towns and city’s across Ireland.
    We have no control on our exports and while the whole of Europe and the USA are only starting Austerity measures our Exports will begin to drop then Growth will drop meaning less tax and more austerity.More Austerity means less domestic spending and less job’s and more reliance on MNC’s and exports just a cycle of bad economic’s.
    The government bemoans about how the country rely on the property market back in the boom times,Our government is doing the same thing with exports and MNC’s.

    Reply
  • Peter Carroll 20 days ago #
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    The only route to growth is to increase exports and develop import substitutes both of which require us to be more competitive. So what are our government doing? Destroying our ability to compete by increasing the costs of public transport, fuel and power, medical services, education, legal services, business rates, pension provision, motor tax, etc. etc.

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  • Report this comment

    Stop the press!!!!!!….. Sure the dog on the street knew that lol.
    And this 2.1% growth figure was just plucked from the air.
    We will all hear lies upon lies til the review it down again next year, meanwhile taxes and austerity are the only things that will truely rise.

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  • On the Dole 20 days ago #
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    Makes me laugh really … It’s not recession it a long drawn out depression..

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  • Shane O'Connor 20 days ago #
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    Not so much forecasting as guessing… I am no economist and I could have told anyone 2.1% is fanciful.

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  • Tony Skillington 20 days ago #
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    Lies, damned lies and statistics….

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