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State of the Nation

Will tight-lipped Enda spring a November surprise?

Here’s everything you need to know about what’s happening in Irish politics right now…

Updated 12.10pm 

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Everyone’s talking about…

Capital Investment Plan launch The Taoiseach laughed off rumours of a November election at yesterday's capital plan launch. PA Wire / PA Images PA Wire / PA Images / PA Images

Despite saying twice in the Dáil that he expects to call the general election for the end of February, November rumours continue to pester Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

Yesterday, bookmakers Paddy Power slashed their odds on an election being held in November, making it their most likely option.

This may have had something to do with former bookie and Fine Gael minister Ivan Yates saying his sources are telling him there’ll be a poll in November. Even if the Taoiseach challenged his former colleague to put his money where his mouth is.

More than just that though, opposition politicians pointed out that much of what was announced in yesterday’s capital plan wasn’t new spending, but was just a fancy repackaging exercise.

As such, they accused the government of trying to buy the election. That charge will almost certainly be repeated after the Budget in a fortnight’s time. Particularly now after the ESRI has come out saying they don’t believe the government’s plans to cut taxes and increase spending are necessary.

20/9/2015. Accenture - Dublin . Pictured (From 2nd 200 jobs at Accentuate were announced this morning with a fancy stained glass window. Sam Boal Sam Boal

The debate surrounding a pre-election budget is always going to be influenced by voters and we’ll keep hearing rumours until the weeks after the Budget. The virtual cut off for a November election.

Asked about the swirling rumours this morning, Jobs Minster Richard Bruton said that he is confident that the Taoiseach will stick to his guns and the government will “go the distance”.

Whenever the election does come, Fianna Fáil have confirmed that Mary Hanafin will be running.

As expected, the former minister will run in Dun Laoghaire despite being defeated at a selection convention by Cllr. Cormac Devlin who she’ll join on the ticket.

Meanwhile, if you fancy indulging in the feeding frenzy that is the British media and Jeremy Corbyn, enter Eamonn Holmes on Sky News.

Sky News / YouTube

The agenda 

  • The government’s climate change bill is set to be debated in the Dáil from 10.45am.
  • New laws aimed at targeting repeat burglars will be discussed, led by the proposing minister Frances Fitzgerald.
  • Following on from that, Leaders Questions is at noon.
  • The Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner will be in the Justice and Equality Committee at 10am to discuss Ireland’s response to the migration crisis.
  • Foreign Affairs Minister Charlie Flanagan is in Washington today and will meet with US representatives to talk about Northern Ireland an immigration. 
  • Paschal Donohoe will take questions on his transport brief at 10.45am.
  • Simon Coveney will be doing the same about the Department of Agriculture at 11am.
  • The Ombudsman Peter Tyndall will discuss two reports from his office at 4pm.
  • In the Seanad, there’s a bill proposing that health professionals shouldn’t be forced from retiring at a certain age.   
  • The Fine Gael and Labour parliamentary parties meet in Leinster House this evening.

Inside Leinster House

Amid ongoing chatter about a November general election, a Fine Gael TD yesterday gave us an insight into his thinking:

“In every poll I’ve seen lately I’ve always looked at Labour. If they can get to 12%, then we should go. In an election campaign Fine Gael can add two or three percent and that’s how we get back into government together.”

What the others are saying  

  • The ESRI is advising that the government should hold off tax relief and spending in the budget according to the Irish Independent.
  • The Dáil will today consider allowing the Oireachatas defend a legal action being taken by Denis O’Brien reports The Irish Times.
  • The Department of Social Protection overpaid by €2 million on illness benefit schemes reports The Examiner 

In case you missed it… 

Good day for… 

Paschal Donohoe. The Transport Minister was front and centre at yesterday’s capital plan announcement with over a third (€10 billion) of the promised investment for his department.

He even got his hands on the latest government cardboard cut out.

29/9/2015. Government announced 27billion in fundi Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie / RollingNews.ie

Bad day for… 

Fianna Fáil. Despite allegations of spin from the opposition, shiny baubles being dangled by the government usually plays well with voters and it’s hard to argue against them.

Also, the revival of the Metro North programme only reminded voters who promised it first all those years ago and how it was never delivered.

On the Twitter machine…  

Clare Daly TD and Mick Wallace TD are not related, despite the proximity of their Dáil seats and what Micheál Kitt says.

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