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Dublin: 8 °C Thursday 23 May, 2013

Greek election: Will the country stay in the euro, or crash out?

Voters are set to head to the polls this weekend in an election that could determine the future of the eurozone.

Alexis Tsipras during a pre-election rally
Alexis Tsipras during a pre-election rally
Image: Petros Giannakouris/AP/Press Association Images

GREECE VOTES ON Sunday for the second time in as many months in an election being watched around the world which could determine if Athens sticks to painful austerity or crashes out of the eurozone.

Some 9.8 million eligible voters will be asked to choose between pro-bailout parties offering to “renegotiate” the country’s EU-IMF rescue deal, and a radical leftist party that wants to tear up the agreement and start from scratch.

Alexis Tsipras, the 37-year-old leader of leftist Syriza, has pledged to make the bailout “history” if he completes a historic run that has so far seen his fledgling party more than triple its results from the previous election in 2009.

“The bailout deal is already in the past. It will be history for good on Monday,” he said at the close of his election campaign this week.

Syriza has been running neck-and-neck with the conservative New Democracy in the latest polls but no party is expected to garner a ruling majority and the days to come are likely to be dominated by convulsed coalition talks.

As his campaign winds up, New Democracy chief Antonis Samaras said he was confident he would be able to put together a coalition government.

“We will stay in the euro. We do not play around with Europe,” he said.

Meanwhile the country is running out of money, with enough reserves to last only until July and the release of fresh instalments from the European Union and International Monetary Fund credit line suspended until after the elections.

Banking sources also say the rate of withdrawals is up ahead of the election.

Euro exit?

Syriza argue that a Greek euro exit would start a eurozone chain reaction and will never be allowed to happen – in defiance of warnings from European leaders that abandoning the bailout deal will ultimately force Greece out.

But even French President Francois Hollande, who favours growth over cuts and whose election was hailed as a ray of hope by crisis-weary Greeks, warned that Athens needed to stick to its bailout commitments to stay in the euro.

Hollande told Greece’s Mega Channel television that if it appears from the vote that Greece will not respect the bailout deal “there will be countries in the eurozone which would prefer to end Greece’s presence in the eurozone.”

“I am in favour of Greece remaining in the eurozone, but Greeks should know that this requires there be a relationship of trust,” Hollande said.

- © AFP, 2012

Read: Fears grow as Greeks flee banks>

More: This is what happens to Greece if it leaves the euro>

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Comments (33 Comments)

  • Greece’s super-rich maintain lavish lifestyles and low profiles
    http://glykosymoritis.blogspot.ie/2012/06/greece-super-rich-maintain-lavish.html

    Reply
    • Peter 15/06/12 #

      Well go after them then you further the unemployment.. They need to tear up the European agreement on dept and break away form a gold standard currency to combat inflation, have a 1% surplus to their incoming revenue each year, privatise all public services, frack for gas, take back Cyprus.

      Reply
    • Peter, if you “go after them” you’ll simply increase revenue. The super-rich do not create jobs, rather, they cost jobs by dodging taxes, sending their money overseas and creating speculative bubbles (like our own housing bubble). If you want an example of the behaviour of the super rich, look no further than Ireland’s own Quinn family, who (it appears) have been plundering the state to the tune of half a billion euro.
      Job creators there, aren’t they?

      Reply
  • Isn’t it fair to say that whether Greece votes for bailout parties or not that it’s effectively dead in the water anyway?

    Reply
  • “..convulsed coalition talks..”?
    Things are really serious when politicians are negotiating via the medium of involuntary muscle contractions.

    Reply
  • Yes! D. The regular folk in Greece are screwed no matter what happens this weekend. Unfortunately money is more important than human life to a few on this planet we call home. SAD!!!

    Reply
  • Some choice a head for the Greek alright, Neither choice particularly nice. Will be interesting if Tsipras does win if the EU will reflect on the fact he has received a mandate (as Kenny would say) from the Greek people to change the deal.

    Reply
  • Interesting electoral system in Greece whereby the party that gets the most votes gets a 50 seat bonus.

    Also, polling is banned 15 days before the election.

    Reply
  • I have a feeling the ECB is going to start printing lots of money…..

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  • We can only dream of having our own currency again. No matter what happens we’re screwed. But, so long as the banks are capitalised !!!!

    Reply
  • In my humble opinion the € should never have existed, therefore the EU should begin an orderly return to own currencies,

    Reply
    • 100% correct Rodger, dunno why the red thumbs, obviously the people who know absolutely nothing about the foundations of the Euro currency, it was a failed project from day one. The Germans knew it in 1997 but still went ahead with it because it gave them a weaker currency and a bigger market with no forex issues so therefore grew their economy. The Maastricht treaty held most of the same fiscal rules as this years fiscal compact and neither France or Germany were within these limits at the start of the Euro project and still are not.

      Reply
    • I can see the benefits of Ireland being outside of the Euro.

      However there’s one thing that all sides agree on, and it’s that if we pull out NOW, we face massive austerity and hardship in the short term.

      I say stick with the Euro to get us through this crisis and then talk of Punt Nua at another time.

      Reply
    • Problem is David currently we are facing long term austerity. What we need to ask is what is better a quick sharp short shock or ongoing austerity until the bailout for the banks has been payed off in 10 years or so. Look at Greece 4 years of austerity and it has been destroyed by the policies of the EU / ECB / IMF.

      Reply
    • Let’s not forget that when this crisis subsides and it suits mainland Europe to push up interest rates we will have MASS default on mortgages with no control here. This is something that should be safeguarded now. Fix Interest rates for the life of mortgages for some security. If we don’t do something the mass default will again cripple the banks and state.

      Reply
    • Fagan's 15/06/12 #

      Dave. I think that we all agree that leaving the Euro will be hard medicine. Very hard. Given the sheer wall of cash that the EU/ECB is going to have to throw at the Euro banking system and the many insolvent states. It will run in to the trillions upon trillions. Spain alone will take 1.2trn over the next 18 months. It could be frozen out for years.

      Add in Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, Ireland, Slovenia, all needing new bailouts. Every country in Europe, having massively under capitalized banks.

      The Euro can only be saved by printing fresh money to save it. There is not even remotely enough cash in the currency zone as is.

      We won’t leave the Euro voluntarily, but it very well might leave us. Germany and a core of 6 countries, might instead of getting the ECB to compensate/bailout countries for the strong currency, save them from debt might just use the printing to pave the way for people to leave the Euro. Maybe even the Germans and others with similar economies, with France and Belgium as a dead weight might leave the Euro, and let the Euro drop in value to a realistic value for the remainder.

      Basically if the Euro stays for 17, it will be decades of stagnation for 7-8 countries, and massive costs in repeated bailouts and subsidies to everyone else. If it goes it could easily trip off a global depression and the only thing to stop that is the hope that the EU/ECB changes the thinking that has defined them for 30 years.

      Reply
    • cimada 15/06/12 #

      Won’t someone think of the children!?

      Reply
  • Will Ireland remain in the euro with a second bailout around the corner? If Spain or Italy revert to their previous currencies, it is doubtful the eurozone could hold together.

    Reply
  • Great news from Greece. At last a country that is beginning the fight-back against the financial oligarchy.
    Maybe it will inspire the Irish to do the same.

    Reply
  • Yes for stability growth jobs ect a week after we vote for the treaty the whole show is collapsing around us !!!

    Reply
    • Laughable isn’t it. This is wot the no side were on about. Dead cat bounce. Spain will need bailout which it will borrow from Italy etc. Italy will have to borrow the money from the markets at 7%to give to Spain who will then repay at 3% effectively forcing Italy into a bailout, its a feckin joke. Wot next? Seriously wot genius idea are the unelected technocrats gonna come up wit next? Beggars belief.

      Reply
    • such a ‘burden sharing’?? covering bailout by bailout…I prefer unelected technocrats to elected populist idiots!

      Reply
    • Hmmm, conundrum. Mustafa you prefer the closed door appointed policy makers to the elected politicians who are policy enforcers….I see ur point. Result: both as bad as each other, they are all morons. We are doomed.

      Reply
  • I see the unelected Paul Murphy MEP is off to Greece to help Syriza.

    I cannot believe that Syriza think Greece can stay in the Eurozone, and that the other countries are just going to write a big blank cheque for them. If Syriza comes to power, the rest of Europe will probably let Greece go.

    Reply
    • Not so sure the EU can afford to cut Greece lose to be honest.

      Reply
    • I think we can Kerry. It’s been priced in.

      Reply
    • Fagan's 15/06/12 #

      It might have been true last week that Greece could be left go, at the very least appeared so.

      However if Greece threatens to go in a huff, or is told sod off after a Syriaza victory, it will blow the Euro sky high. As is, the Euro is looking more likely than not to break up.

      If the Greeks are let go, then it will be with a debt write off and economic support for years to come. It might be actually used as a test case of letting countries unsuited to the Euro leave.

      Syriaza know that a disorderly Greek exit, will mean that France and Germany will have to do a massive bank bailout sending their debt to worrying levels. People will see that German austerity is actually a way of hiding how massively exposed they are to the crisis.

      Reply
    • I see the troika are still running the country Dave and we STILL haven’t got a deal on the promissory notes, but don’t worry, keep diverting attention away. As a member of Fine Gael is it not a bit odd that you are ignorant of electoral fact? When people voted in the 2009 european elections, they did not just vote for the main candidate, they also voted for the list of replacement candidates. Here’s Gay Mitchel’s list: 1. O’MUIRI, NAOISE, 2. O’CONNELL, GERRY, 3. BREEN, GERRY, 4. RICHMOND, NEALE, 5. KENNEDY, JOHN

      If you don’t like this system, have your party not been in power and had ample time to change it, particularly all the free time you have now since you abandoned all your elections promises.

      Reply
  • Its very hard to know, after all this is an election. We know here that FG and Labour said one thing before the election and was pure bull…Total weak govt way out of their league walking the country into disaster…Will this new greek govt if voted in and i say If be the same???

    Reply

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