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Dublin: 10 °C Wednesday 19 June, 2013

Column: Call that a stimulus? What we need is a tax cut.

The ‘stimulus’ announced this week won’t even move the needle, writes Aaron McKenna. So what should be done?

Aaron McKenna

IS IT DESPERATION or simply the low calibre of the individuals running our government – from the politicians to the spin doctors and mandarins – that leads to the shoddy announcements and re-heats of announcements on stimulus this and jobs plan that?

This week we’ve got ourselves a €2.25 billion stimulus plan for the economy that, we’re told, will deliver 13,000 jobs, miles of new roads and more classrooms than you can shake a small ruler at. As per usual we had to have the representatives of Fine Gael and Labour alike deliver the announcement together, often repeating one another, to ensure that they all got their moment in the warm glow (we should seriously start adding up the ministerial, adviser and mandarin pay by the minute for these non-events, and see about cutting back. There’s a stimulus.)

Also as per usual for government announcements we had a distinct lack of clarity on the little things related to a €2,250,000,000 program. Such as, for example, where about two billion, two hundred and fifty million of the euros are going to come from. Not immediately apparent at the time of the announcement, we figured out later that €750 million will come from the National Pension Reserve Fund (the Yeti Fund, at it is fast becoming known); €850m from offloading state assets; and €100m will come from the European Investment Bank. So far, so good.

Except the government thinks that it’ll get a lot more than just that from the Europeans (one hopes but doubts that they know that); we’ve got to raise hundreds of millions more from the private sector; and the €850m from the sale of state assets is neither guaranteed nor tied to any timeframe in the near future. So, we’re €550m short and the other €1.7bn is not quite money resting in our account, your honour.

‘Situation normal’

The whole stimulus will hardly be a shot in the arm to the struggling economy, like the near trillion dollars the US pumped in after President Obama came to office. No sir. Our stimulus program is slated to run to about 2018 (by which time, if Obama wins in November, his successor will be in the middle of their first term.)

So far, situation normal (AFU) for the Irish government. Ministers got to do the press thing and talk up all the goodies coming to their const… departments. There will, hopefully, be some projects actually underway come the local elec… soon. The National Children’s Hospital might as well become a geriatrics institution for all the times it has been re-announced.

The trouble is that this stimulus, even spread out to 2018 and by offloading things like extraneous state assets and providing some infrastructure, is just another giant waste of money. It’s not even that good of a PR effort for a giant waste of money, being delivered in such a half hearted fashion to a jaded Irish public.

This is one of the measures that the government wants to take to kick-start the Irish economy. Fair enough. But it is just another drop of warm spit into the cold ocean of our problems. Even if this stimulus delivers 13,000 jobs they’re transient, and spread over such a long period of time as to hardly move the needle. Yes, more classrooms will be great to have but in the bigger picture we’re still educating kids in them today who won’t have great job prospects come their graduation given the glacial pace of reform and economic growth in Ireland.

The government complains that it can only do so much. It can try and reform hundreds of different elements of its bureaucracy to make it easier for people to do business and it can wring whatever juice it can find from the NPRF or by selling off a few trees, but spread over time and distance this doesn’t go far enough.

‘In the toilet’

The trouble is that the government keeps naturally avoiding the giant white elephant in the room. If government wants to provide a stimulus to the economy it ought to cut its own spending so that it can cut taxes, or deliver no new taxes, to individuals and families.

This stimulus program may move the needle a little in 2013, but I can assure you that a much increased property tax to pay for inefficient local government will move it more in the other direction. The fear of increased taxes on anything from our water to our incomes will sway consumer confidence and spending right to where we’ve seen it in the past few years – in the toilet.

Government wants to do what it really like to do, which is beg, borrow or steal (well, we can’t borrow) whatever money it can find and spend it. Never is the question, “If our income is at 2004 levels, shouldn’t our spending be too…?”

It’s a tired old solution that hasn’t been working to date. The government wants to make itself look busy in the absence of any real change, but what will the majority of people remember a year from now, or think about when deciding to buy a new home, a new car, or just plain upgrade the quality of bread they buy: The stimulus… Or the fact that government dropped several hundred euro (or more) in new taxes on their heads?

Let’s let consumers create 13,000 jobs – or 130,000 for that matter – far more efficiently than the €170,000 a pop government price tag by putting money back into their pockets and by giving them certainty. Then you’ll see an economic stimulus.

Jacking up taxes is a proven way to kill the economy. Drop in the ocean stimulus spending is not a proven way to stimulate it. Our government – and all parties – clearly need to reassess their priorities and get over their fears of special interests, the bearded union warriors and parish pump trouble makers, and make real and tangible policies to support our economy.

Come back to us with €2.25 billion in tax cuts for 2013, with commensurate cuts in spending, and the Irish people in the street will give you your stimulus.

Aaron McKenna is a businessman and a columnist for TheJournal.ie. You can find out more about him at aaronmckenna.com or follow him on Twitter @aaronmckenna.

Read: More columns from Aaron McKenna on TheJournal.ie >

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Comments (58 Comments)

  • Cut the duty on fuel. I have to spend 90+ euro a week just to get to and from work. No disposable income to spend in local economy such as pubs , local shops , cinema etc ..

    Reply
  • Have to agree with you Aarron! This so called big job stimulus announcement was nothing more than a dress up excercise, designed to allow Government to slip away on their eight week summer holiday with a clear conscience!

    Reply
    • Peter 21/07/12 #

      The big syringe in the photo tells its all, “government heroin” take 13000 possible private sector workers get them hooked and they will be dependant for life on the the new unaffordable projects

      Reply
    • What Arron is advocating was tried before in 1977 with disastrous consequences. Every new generation refuses to learn the lessons from the past and thus history repeats itself. Accordingly advocating reform without the necessary erudition would meet the criteria to be classed a “low calibre analysis”.

      Reply
    • Charles, what successive Irish governments attempted to do, post-oil crisis, was Keynesian-style deficit spending; similar to the currently proposed government stimulus plans. This resulted in national borrowings reaching unsustainable levels, no economic growth and continued increase in unemployment and emmigration.
      As Mr McKenna describes and history shows, consumer lead spending is of greater benefit to the economy than the poltically motivated, agenda-lead, inefficient spending of government.

      Reply
    • Sean O’Keeffe, where do you think the money is going to come from to pay for tax cuts while running a budget deficit? Slash and burn or borrowing! The former will take vast sums of money out of the economy and reducing the ability of consumers to earn cash. The latter, borrowing kicks the problem down the road. It appears that the equation is just too simple to be understood.

      Reply
    • Funding tax cuts:
      Firstly, (as already pointed out) reduce spending. Not including unemployment welfare costs and debt repayments The Irish government is one of the highest spending in Europe. This is not sustainable. Example: healthcare spending highest in eurozone despite having the youngest population.
      Secondly, reducing tax rates often has the effect of increasing revenues. (See Russian reform of income tax 1991. McCreevy reducing Irish CGT.)
      Thirdly, tax cuts can be funded from wherever the government intends funding stimulus.

      Reply
  • “Trying to tax yourself out of a recession is like trying to lift a bucket you standing in by the handle.”

    Outdated, economically unsound practices are getting us nowhere. It is a fact that every Euro that the government take by tax revenue is shrunk by inefficient spending and wastage. Instead, an environment and attitude that encourages and nurtures small and new private industry needs to be created, as this is where job creation and economic growth is rooted.

    Delighted to see an article with sensible suggestions.

    Reply
    • I Couldn’t agree more, unfortunately our fiscal policy is so influenced by the European social climate that we are unlikely to see much apetite for cuts in tax or spending.
      Consider France where employer’s PRSI is over 50% and employees’ rights so burdensome, that most small businesses cannot afford to take on any staff, or do so in very small numbers. This understaffing helps to perpetuate the renowned French customer service experience.
      Two friends of mine were running a restaurant in the Alps, and although not married, were partners running it as a husband and wife team. The male half of the team was the owner on paper, and because they weren’t married, his GF was not exempt from employer’s obligations, so she was not working on the books. The police found out about the arrangement, arrested him (handcuffs in the middle of the day-fortunately not prosecuted) and shut down the restaurant. A year later the unit is still vacant.
      This is the mindset of our friends of the continent.

      Reply
  • I’m a civil engineer still working in Ireland and I have absolutely no faith in this “construction stimulus package”.

    Furthermore, I guarantee that all the major projects (if they go ahead!) will be outsourced the multinational contractors, engineers and architects, so the money will leave the country.

    Look at the new Sam Beckett bridge – spanish architect and engineer designed in spain, built in holland and floated over by the dutch. A small Irish contractor bolted it into place and tarted up the footpath.

    The port tunnell, Japanese Contractor. The Conference Centre, American Architect. It’s an absolute joke, we have the talent, knowledge, expertese and experience in this country, yet the flawed government/system either dont know or dont have faith in the Irish!

    Reply
  • €170,000 a pop for a transient job is a stark figure. It is like putting a fiver petrol into the empty tank, it will make the engine run but won’t take you anywhere. Neither are they getting enough efficiency out of what they do spend. Cutting taxes and spending is the only sustainable route to recovery.

    Reply
  • It has amazed me why the Government is expecting to stimulate an economy where they tax everything to death. In the past reducing levels of tax brought in more income when will they cop on to this ? It is simple, the only way to get the economy working is to give people more incentive to spend. Reduce taxes and let the consumer create jobs not Government aspirations that will take 10 years and probably go to foreign contractors.

    Reply
  • The only way to get more in work (if they can find it that is) is cut taxes on paye to make it worth doing low paid jobs/ increase credits/ make diesel etc refundable Or what they are itching to do, cut social welfare.

    Reply
    • Peter 21/07/12 #

      Make it worth while for the employer to hire lower paying jobs cut minimum wage and dole at the same time

      Reply
    • If you can’t afford to pay minimum wage then surely your business is not viable? unless its a case of being able to pay less to increase profits out of greed..

      Any Boss who wants to pay less than the minimum wage should be willing to take same wage to demonstrate the genuine need to sustain the viability of the business.

      Reply
    • Rob 21/07/12 #

      They need to tax wealthy business and corporations higher while lowering the tax for ordinary people.Close the tax loopholes that exist whereby a corporation gets tax free allowances on a new company vehicle, etc.

      Reply
  • I can’t help but feel that the author is leaving out more than he’s saying. Instead of saying “tax cuts” and “spending cuts”, I’d be genuinely interested to hear what taxes should be cut and what aspects of government spending should be cut.

    Reply
  • Hi Aaron, I have an introductory Macroeconomics book at home if you want? The reason the stimulus won’t work is because it’s only 1% of GDP. The reason they won’t cut taxes is because that will increase the deficit year on year as opposed to one off capital expenditure.

    Reply
    • And so I said: Cut spending to cut taxes. Deficit neutral. We know tax increases just kill the economy. Look at Q1 as an example.

      Reply
    • That’s fine but then it wont be expansionary. Spending cuts will offset the expansionary effects of the tax cut.

      We know high tax rates are distortionary. But we also know that 100% of govt spending is included as as spending in GDP. If you cut govt spending and cut taxes not all of that govt spending will be replaced by private spending because some of it will be saved.

      The empirical evidence is quite mixed on whether cutting spending in order to cut taxes is beneficial or damaging.

      Reply
    • I think the evidence is mixed by those who don’t want to cut the government cake. Government is highly inefficient in much of its spending versus low and middle income earners.

      Reply
    • Yes but that inefficiency is offset by the fact that all govt spending is spent but some of the tax cuts will be saved. Plus I would say that govt spends a higher ratio domestically.

      On balance I think it’s fair to assume that any deficit neutral actions won’t have much effect on the economy. The govt’s hands are pretty much tied.

      Reply
  • Rich guy advocates tax cuts, surprise surprise.

    They had 10 years of Bush tax cuts weighted towards the wealthy under the argument that it would trickle down to ordinary people. A decade later America had the largest gap beween rich and poor in the developed world, higher unemployment and a massive increase in working people requiring government aid such as food stamps.

    Tax cuts always disproportionately favour the same people who do not have to spend the money gained in the local economy. They can save or invest it, avoiding the purpose to the cut i.e. stimulus. Close the loopholes and tax breaks for top earners, targetting monies gained towards the people who have to spend every penny in the local economy to survive. its the best way to ensure the money boosts the domestic economy.

    Reply
    • Peter 21/07/12 #

      Dude the bush tax cuts would have worked had George Bush kept to his original platform of small decentralised government… Sadly he got into 2 wars, and expanded welfare by 3 times in some areas.

      Reply
    • So they did not work. And he didn’t ‘sadly get into two wars’ he invaded two countries that never attacked america and enriched his defense contractor buddies and haliburton using taxpayer money that could have been boosting the economy. Worth noting as well that he is the only american president EVER to cut taxes during wartime, the opposite is the norm with the extra revenue used to fund it.

      Reply
    • Peter 21/07/12 #

      Well saying that he was the only president to ever lower taxes is not really fair as the income tax has only being there since the very early 20 century.. He did not need to raise taxes as he borrowed and the FED just printed dollars to fund all of it … I dont take Americas side when I say “sadly ” as you seem to suggest..

      Reply
    • So, VAT hits the poorest in Ireland the hardest, so much so that the bottom 10% of income earners pay more tax than the next four deciles because of it.

      The marginal rate of income tax hits 50% at €32,800 when the average salary is €36,000.

      The tax on households and water will hit average and lower income earners more than the rich.

      It’s low and middle income earners who are missing in our economy to drive it forward.

      But advocating tax cuts is a big win for the rich…?

      Let’s just face it: Hard lefties just can’t stand the idea that government should be any smaller to accommodate people’s pockets and grow the economy.

      Reply
    • You should try out for fox news Aaron. The ‘pundits’ on there are fond of tax cut and smaller government as well. They’re also fond of pushing for the continuance of a tax code that favours the wealthy that has decimated their economy over the Bush years.

      Unfortunately for you people in this country aren’t as dumb as the usual target audience for such up is down drivel. Would you, for instance, advocate a third tax rate for people like yourself who are in a position to contribute more without going to the poorhouse?

      You article, as with the rest of them, is big on soundbites and short on specifics. Your attempt to push for tax cuts without revealing the type of tax cuts you’re advocating is typical of the blanketbombing we can expect from IBEC and people like yourself coming up to the budget. “Lets cut tax and watch the top earnrs trickle down some gray to the unwashed masses”. Trouble is Aaron, as we have seen by the widening gap in our society and employment figures, thats not gravy trickling down, and its not champagne despite the similar colour

      Reply
    • Oh, and Aaron, its not just the ‘lefties’, Nobel winning economist Pauk Krugman tore a couple of your ‘tax cuts, smaller government’ friends a new one on BBCs newsnight a while ago. He called them on their agenda and made mincemeat of their arguments with simple common sense.

      Reply
    • I actually agree with TooTrue Left for once! A recent report showed that Ireland still had one of the lowest tax burdens per GDP in the eurozone area, even after all the increases we’ve seen. The gap between intake and expenditure has to be narrowed somehow. Tax doesn’t decrease the money in the economy the way cuts do as ideally tax is spent on public services which are part of the domestic economy.
      Of course servicing the national debt does cost huge sums of money and that does leave the economy, so it’s vital we get a deal on the banking debt.

      Reply
    • Studies from places like Harvard University have shown that tax increases harm the economy 2x’s as much as govt spending cuts. It depends on the tax and the spend, but generally the trend is there.

      As I say, VAT for example is an extremely regressive tax that hurts poor and middle income earners far more than high income earners. We’ve seen what the 2% increase did to retail sales – and jobs for low and middle income earners, to boot – this year.

      Several years into the crisis and govt keeps turning up things like communion dress allowances and car parking perks for civil servants, not to mention the lack of a real tackle into the Quango sector etc, but we’re told all govt spending is sacred and to protect the common good? That argument doesn’t wash. Meanwhile, increased taxes are killing the economy as plain as night follows day.

      Reply
    • Still waiting for those specifics Aaron instead of the regurgitated right wing well heeled guy soundbites.

      Take your time.

      By the way Aaron, love how you immediately reply to ignoreland agreeing with me after an 8 hour gap between any posts for our subthread.

      Reply
  • Peter 21/07/12 #

    Ron Paul’s economic policy is the only one that works., austrian economics

    Reply
  • The solution is simple. There are 4.6m people in Ireland, share the 2.6 billion among the people and create pool of wealth that will regenerate the economy. No need to pay out any social welfare and the ‘experiment’ could set the standard for a global economic change. The current financial system is archaic and based on perpetuation of a debt ridden society. Simple?TTY

    Reply
    • Damocles 21/07/12 #

      They did a similar stimulus exercise in the US.

      Most Yanks I know spent it on holiday in Amsterdam.

      But you’re talking 500 quid a head. It’s hardly big money. It’d just vanish.

      Reply
  • Damocles 21/07/12 #

    Yeah. Let’s tax anyone with any money. Woo! Tax ‘em ’til they bleed!

    Reply
  • paul 21/07/12 #

    The solution is simple. There are 4.6m people in Ireland, share the 2.6 billion among the people and create pool of wealth that will regenerate the economy. No need to pay out any social welfare and the ‘experiment’ could set the standard for a global economic change. The current financial system is archaic and based on perpetuation of a debt ridden society. Simple?

    Reply
  • I’m happy to read and support any protests against the coalition’s “stimulus” plan (as well as similar plans from FF, SF & ULA), and agree with much of the article’s sentiments, but I can’t help get the impression that the author tacitly accepts that “if only” the government was assured of the cash and could spend more, then this scheme could conjure up prosperity and recovery. It won’t.

    Such plans will only siphon scarce capital away from more efficient uses, distort further the economy’s structure of production, and delay/retard a sustainable economic recovery. As the author correctly says, a reduction in taxes and state spending are steps in the right direction – these measures should be accompanied by other such policies designed to reduce impediments to capital reallocation, including liquidations.

    On the whole though I applaud this much-needed and very good article from the author, I just felt that this point regarding “size” of the stimulus needs to be put to bed ASAP. Kudos Aaron.

    Reply
  • Rob 21/07/12 #

    It’s time to cut sales tax and give people a chance to spend. However, they need to increase tax on the wealthy and corporations.

    Reply
  • Tax the f-ing rich, tax cuts only ever help the rich, normal people are paying for this crisis and people in comfortable positions like Aaron there think the rich need more help :)

    Reply
  • Have to say your piece suffers from the same problem as the goverment -’repetition’ and ‘negativiry’

    Reply
  • Labor markets are very different all over the world. There still is some forced labor in China, I’m not sure it produces any products that get shipped out of the country. But, until labor markets stabilize there are going to be ups and downs all over the place. What we need is a One Planet Union and a world-wide minimum wage enforced by the UN. It’s another thing that won’t be easy, but must be done. It maybe be hard to get a good job in your home town, but remember that hundreds of children die everyday because of poverty and hunger, so,…count your blessings and work together to make the world better for everyone.

    Reply
  • paul 21/07/12 #

    The solution is simple. There are 4.6m people in Ireland, share the 2.6 billion among the people and create pool of wealth that will regenerate the economy. No need to pay out any social welfare and the ‘experiment’ could set the standard for a global economic change. The current financial system is archaic and based on perpetuation of a debt ridden society. Simple?TTY

    Reply
  • The solution is simple. There are 4.6m people in Ireland, share the 2.6 billion among the people and create pool of wealth that will regenerate the economy. No need to pay out any social welfare and the ‘experiment’ could set the standard for a global economic change. The current financial system is archaic and based on perpetuation of a debt ridden society. Simple?TTY

    Reply
  • It’s funny that the government are critcised for not being specific, while the author then proceeds to prescribe 100% spending cuts rather than tax increases (Instead of the current 55:45 ratio). Yet he provides no information on how much tax cuts would cost or areas where the spending cuts to fund the tax cuts should be made.

    Pot. Kettle. Black.

    Reply

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