NEVER HAS A presidential election been so dramatically upended as it was last night with the shock announcement from Jim Gavin that he is withdrawing from the presidential race. 

This decision completely re-frames the presidential election. It turns it into a two-horse race between Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the left-backed candidate Catherine Connolly. 

As 11pm closed in last night, the former Dublin GAA manager released a statement saying he had decided to withdraw from the election. It came after he failed to clarify reports on The Week in Politics debate that he allegedly did not repay a tenant €3,300 in rent mistakenly paid over a decade ago. 

In the statement, Gavin said recent days “have given me cause to reflect.”

“I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself. I am now taking steps to address the matter,” he said. 

“I have also thought long and hard about the potential impact of the ongoing campaign on the wellbeing of my family and friends.

“Taking all these considerations on board, I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family.”

The Irish Independent reported yesterday that Gavin and his wife rented out an apartment in Dublin’s north-inner city to a number of tenants. Between the years 2007 and 2009, a couple were living in the Gavins’ apartment, and continued to pay rent for some time after they left – and then could not get the money back from Gavin. 

No adequate answer 24 hours after rental story broke

The first mistake from Gavin was not having an adequate answer to give when questioned about it during the live TV debate yesterday.

He simply said it was something he was still looking into, offering no clarity and more importantly, no atonement. He also admitted that the rental property had not been registered with the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB). 

Before looking at what this will do for the election, the focus first falls to this implosion moment for the Fianna Fáil campaign – and in particular, party leader Micheál Martin.

With posters of Gavin already printed and hung up on every pole around the country, there is no getting away from it. This is a disaster for the party.

Discussions will turn to how this could have happened and who is responsible.

Fielding Gavin as a Fianna Fáil candidate was Martin’s idea.

Many in the party said it was risky one. Many a time has the party leader steamed ahead with his ideas, and often he has been vindicated. This decision, however, will bring his judgement into question. 

In late summer, party members were getting uneasy with the lack of clarity about who the party was running. There was a vacuum of information, which even resulted in Bertie Ahern’s name resurfacing again.

Ireland South MEP Billy Kelleher pushed for an emergency meeting to discuss the matter, before ultimately putting his name forward for the nomination. 

At the time, The Journal reported that there was a general desire in the party that it should offer its voters an option. Not just any candidate, but a Fianna Fáil candidate. 

But this was at odds with what Martin wanted. Throughout the summer, he had indicated that he thought the presidential candidate should be someone that was above party politics, someone who would be well-received by everyone.

There was talk that Martin was keen to pick an academic or a person steeped in charity work rather than a bruiser of a politician. 

It now would appear that was a fatal error. 

The presidential election is brutal. Many have faltered in past races, and if anything, this decision by Gavin yesterday proves that point. It is a tough sport, particularly for someone who is not used to the intense scrutiny and rigorous interrogation that comes with it. 

Martin’s error was not making that crystal clear to Gavin. It was also the party’s error for not doing its due diligence and microscopic deep-dive into Gavin’s past so as to spot any landmines that might arise. 

Another error by the Fianna Fáil leader was leaving the nomination process so late.

Had the party picked a candidate early in the summer and made an announcement, as Connolly did, they could have dealt with any issues early on, and if needed, chosen another candidate prior to the deadline had a landmine so big been discovered. 

Instead, the party is now left with egg on its face. 

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There are some in the party that believe that throughout the summer, party headquarters had made up its mind that it Fianna Fáil would back Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness.

Some even speculated that perhaps it had been an unwritten deal between the coalition parties when Michael McGrath got the EU Commissioner role.

The bombshell that she would not be running for the party may have put the cat among the pigeons, forcing HQ into a quick decision to find a suitable candidate, ultimately landing on Gavin. 

Either way, not choosing a candidate that was politically aware of the challenge ahead has landed the party where it is now.

After the first TV debate, there were concerns. It became more notable when Micheál Martin never posted on social media afterward the second debate. There were also rumblings in Fianna Fáil about how Kelleher would have “breezed” the debates.

After yesterday’s debate and polling numbers the talk among Fianna Fáil was just how badly Gavin might do in the election.

Had he come third, it wouldn’t be the end of the world for the party, but the final numbers would matter, particularly for the leadership.

Now, that all seems like a dream scenario for the party. 

Getting bad numbers on the day is one thing, but having the candidate walk away three weeks from polling day is a GUBU moment for Fianna Fáil. 

What does this mean for the overall race?

We can expect to see a big appeal from the Connolly campaign to the Fianna Fáil grassroots, while Fine Gael will also be on the hunt, in a hope coalition vibes might result in votes. 

Two women, on opposite sides of the political spectrum when it comes to a lot of issues, vying for the top job in the Park. 

This election just blew wide open. Buckle up.