Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
Niall Carson/PA Archive
Count from Hell
Explained: why the Wicklow count is taking so long
Wicklow now won’t return a TD until Tuesday – so what’s holding it up? Here’s our guide to what’s taking so long.
7.52pm, 27 Feb 2011
3.1k
6
THE ELECTION COUNT in Wicklow has been stalled for the night, after outgoing minister Dick Roche was eliminated on the 13th count and sought a full recount.
Roche, after being eliminated on unlucky count number 13, was just three votes behind his running mate Pat Fitzgerald on elimination – and was granted a full recount, even though neither Fianna Fáil candidate looks like they can count on a seat.
The recount will begin tomorrow morning at 9am, and will see a long count go on for even longer. Despite over 24 hours of counting in Wicklow, it’s now not likely that Wicklow will return its first TD until Tuesday morning.
Here’s why the count is taking so long. (Most of the logic, by the way, can also be applied to the epic count in Laois-Offaly which has returned just one TD after over 24 hours of counting.)
It’s a five-seater, so there are more people (both candidates and voters)
Five-seat constituencies tend to be the geographically larger, rural ones, such as Carlow-Kilkenny, Longford-Westmeath, and Mayo.
In those constituencies, the bigger parties tend to run more than one (and commonly three) candidates, with one from each of the constituency’s main towns, or with at least one from each county where there’s two counties in one constituency.
As a result, five-seat constituencies attract big numbers of candidates from the mainstream parties – and perhaps as a result, or because of their large geographical spread, they attract more candidates running on local issues.
This time, there were 24 candidates in Wicklow – the highest of any constituency in Ireland. It was for that reason, and the fact that the turnout in Wicklow was higher than it has been for decades, that Wicklow was the last one to announce its first count yesterday.
More candidates means fewer votes each
The formula for calculating a quota is fairly simple – you divide the total number of valid votes by one more than the number of seats available, and add one.
That means in a five-seat constituency, the quota is exactly one vote more than a sixth of the total poll.
Advertisement
And where there are more candidates (in this case Fine Gael ran three, Labour ran three, Fianna Fáil ran two – even the new Fís Nua party ran two candidates on a geographical basis), the chances of one candidate picking up a sixth of the entire vote and therefore making the quota is very slim.
It’s only happened twice in the last twenty years – Dick Roche picked up 1.01 quotas in 2002, while before that the immensely popular Labour TD Liam Kavanagh would regularly pick up a quota (though in his case, there was only one Labour candidate, as opposed to three this time).
So when there’s no chance of anyone making the quota, counting proceeds by eliminating the candidates from the bottom of the list, rather than getting rid of those from the top.
The electoral staircase
So. Nobody makes the quota, and therefore there are no surpluses to distribute. When that’s the case, we remove the candidates who finish bottom of the field.
Although sometimes more than one candidate is eliminated at a time (in circumstances where 100 per cent of their transfers still couldn’t push the next-lowest candidate further up the table), usually only one is knocked out at a time.
In Wicklow’s case this time around, the number of votes picked up by the worst-faring candidates were almost all equal – so candidates had to be eliminated one-at-a-time, in case all of the second preferences from one candidate were transferable to another.
And with 24 candidates – and 11 of them polling under 1,000 votes – that means a lot of counts where a small number of votes are being distributed each time, and with none of them making any significant impact on the ultimate result.
Looking after number 1 – and their number 1s
Finally, there’s one significant reason why the count isn’t continuing tonight: party pride. Regardless of whether it’s Dick Roche or Pat Fitzgerald that makes it through to the 14th count, the probability of that the surviving FF candidate has a fight on their hands.
The surviving candidate, who will be bottom of the nine remaining candidates, will likely find themselves ascending to sixth (if not fifth, in a five-seat constituency) once their colleague’s transfers are processed.
Once that’s done, the next eliminee will be Joe Behan: now an independent, but hitherto a Fianna Fáil TD. The chances are that the remaining FF candidate will be hoping for most of their colleague’s 4,200-or-so transfers, possibly sending them into fourth spot.
From there, one Labour candidate will transfer to another – possibly pushing one into fourth spot, and potentially pushing the surviving FF candidate into fifth – and, they would hope, guarantee their success.
That’s why for Dick Roche, it’s vitally important that he – and not Pat Fitzgerald – is the Fianna Fáil survivor. And with just three votes between the two, and 8,435 votes processed thus far, there’s every chance that he could overtake Fitzgerald in the pecking order.
Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article.
Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation.
@Gavin Conran: some times you have to make a leap of faith …..this last time I took it with fg and labour . ..burned me Instead of the bond holders …there’s not many left that I haven’t voted for …don’t get me started in the greens in 08
The security Inustry thought they eaare getting a 30ent per hour pay rise 4 years ago but the big companies who could afford it took it to the courts. Still working in the security industry. Still no pay rise
Some of these public servant’s are worth a hell of a lot more than a lot of others,some real wastes of space in a lot of those jobs,get rid of those permanent contracts and employ a lot of them yearly and I guarantee soon see the benefits.
@Paul Owens: So you want public servants and all of the decisions to come from people who are employed on a yearly basis? I wonder how much of a worse state the government departments would be in if they had new people coming in every single year, with no training.
Sick of seeing people blame civil servants for the mess the country is in. The majority of civil servants are hard at work every day just as much as the private sector. It’s not as cushy as some suggest, especially the wages many of them are on. It’s the government who ultimately calls the shots on everything, they are to blame for the issues.
@Tomo: it’s estimated 40.000 have little or nothing to do everyday,they take no risks in life with their jobs,their salary paid by people living in the real world,they can’t be moved where they are needed or they go to HR, promotion if u have a pulse,lazy a holes most of them,and by the way I work in the public service,,,half them should be sacked
@Willie: No I don’t sorry,but I am surprised it’s 40.000, could be more,,I work in public service and half do f,,all and other half do all the work,,the higher u go it’s gets worse,there are tons u can do in public service to make it a lot more efficient,it’s a joke,I worked abroad for 3 years and it’s amazing what a 2 year contract will do to people to get their ass moving,,stop the permanent contracts to start with.
CPI since my last increase in Sep 2018 has gone up 8.8% yet theres no sign of a resolution to the security ERO in sight.
The current rate is 11.65 and I think at a minimum it should be increased by circa 10% to €12.80 immediately if not €13
Those in public service have job security, pensions and other benefits the private sector don’t particularly those of us at the low end who are feeling it more then anyone above us on €30k+ a year
@Stealth: The public service pension isn’t with a lot at the low end as it is better off against the state pension and there is a pension Levy and contribution
Woman (60s) being treated for ‘life threatening’ injuries following collision in Co Donegal
5 mins ago
1
occupied territories bill
Foreign Affairs Committee recommends inclusion of services in Israeli settlements trade ban
14 mins ago
5
The Morning Lead
Mortgages have hit levels not seen since right before the crash
20 hrs ago
35.4k
58
Your Cookies. Your Choice.
Cookies help provide our news service while also enabling the advertising needed to fund this work.
We categorise cookies as Necessary, Performance (used to analyse the site performance) and Targeting (used to target advertising which helps us keep this service free).
We and our 210 partners store and access personal data, like browsing data or unique identifiers, on your device. Selecting Accept All enables tracking technologies to support the purposes shown under we and our partners process data to provide. If trackers are disabled, some content and ads you see may not be as relevant to you. You can resurface this menu to change your choices or withdraw consent at any time by clicking the Cookie Preferences link on the bottom of the webpage . Your choices will have effect within our Website. For more details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
We and our vendors process data for the following purposes:
Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development.
Cookies Preference Centre
We process your data to deliver content or advertisements and measure the delivery of such content or advertisements to extract insights about our website. We share this information with our partners on the basis of consent. You may exercise your right to consent, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in the link under each purpose. Some vendors may process your data based on their legitimate interests, which does not require your consent. You cannot object to tracking technologies placed to ensure security, prevent fraud, fix errors, or deliver and present advertising and content, and precise geolocation data and active scanning of device characteristics for identification may be used to support this purpose. This exception does not apply to targeted advertising. These choices will be signaled to our vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework. The choices you make regarding the purposes and vendors listed in this notice are saved and stored locally on your device for a maximum duration of 1 year.
Manage Consent Preferences
Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work.
Social Media Cookies
These cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then these services may not function properly.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not be able to monitor our performance.
Store and/or access information on a device 148 partners can use this purpose
Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers, randomly assigned identifiers, network based identifiers) together with other information (e.g. browser type and information, language, screen size, supported technologies etc.) can be stored or read on your device to recognise it each time it connects to an app or to a website, for one or several of the purposes presented here.
Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development 191 partners can use this purpose
Use limited data to select advertising 154 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times an ad is presented to you).
Create profiles for personalised advertising 117 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (such as forms you submit, content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (for example, information from your previous activity on this service and other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (that might include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present advertising that appears more relevant based on your possible interests by this and other entities.
Use profiles to select personalised advertising 117 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on your advertising profiles, which can reflect your activity on this service or other websites or apps (like the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects.
Create profiles to personalise content 50 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit, non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find content that matches your interests.
Use profiles to select personalised content 47 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on your content personalisation profiles, which can reflect your activity on this or other services (for instance, the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects. This can for example be used to adapt the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find (non-advertising) content that matches your interests.
Measure advertising performance 173 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance, whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of advertising campaigns.
Measure content performance 77 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 108 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 113 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 49 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 64 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 36 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 119 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 123 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 92 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 65 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 113 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 100 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
have your say