Well spotted.
Irelands banks will need to be recapitalized repeatedly.
We are looking to borrow money to prop up a failed banking model and a failed economic model with a failed currency.

Senan,
even if they wiped it off, ill still be voting No.
The aul democracy argument and all that.

Kingston ????

Exactly. This treaty is just a side show. But if we vote yes, that will vindicate the supporters of the current approach – pouring water on a drowning man.

Tell that to the recipients of social welfare who would find their payments at least reduced by the difficulty in getting lower interest rates to finance the payments.your solution does no justice to the logic that the debt will be there anyway and yes is the best option to access funding.

Martin, are you connected to the FF party? Straight question?

Martin – I am one of those people you speak of and I dont care if I have to live on beans and toast and breakfast cereal for the rest of my life if I have to. I would rather be a poor Irish woman than be ruled by a load of Bankers in Brussels.

The ESM is not charity box. It goes to make sure a country doesn’t stop paying back its other debts and spook the markets. If its main concern was dole recipients, I would expect Spain to receive assistance soon, to help it massive numbers of unemployed. But Spain will only get money if they think it is going bankrupt as account of Austerity, and in a position to bring down the single currency, Same as they will give us money only when they think we are going to bring down the currency, REGARDLESS if we affirm this treaty or not, and, unfortunately, REGARDLESS whether we want it or not.

Apologies for the many grammar mistakes. I really ought to proofread more.

Copy and paste, copy and paste.

I didn’t copy anyone! If anyone said the same thing as me, then I congratulate them on their similar observations! :D

I think that John might have been referring to Gary Crowley who keeps posting the list he copied from Boards.ie

Oh, good! I was afraid I was being accused of plagiarism there!

Missed the question mark did we ?
Selective reading again are we ?

JC Trichet: Weaker nations should be declared bankrupt and lose fiscal sovereignty to save the Euro.
http://m.cnbc.com/id/47471171

“Europe could strengthen its monetary union by giving European politicians the power to declare a sovereign state bankrupt and take over its fiscal policy, the former head of the European Central Bank said on Thursday in unveiling a bold proposal to salvage the euro.

The plan offered by Jean-Claude Trichet, who stepped down last November as ECB president, would address a fundamental weakness of the 13-year-old single currency the survival of which is threatened by the Greek crisis.”

Do you think its a good idea that any country should be allowed to crash a whole currency?

The idiots at the helm when a one-size fits all monetary policy devastated periphery economics are now saying one size fits all fiscal policies will fix it. I don’t think so.

“Do you think its a good idea that any country should be allowed to crash a whole currency?”

Cant believe you said that Gary.

Sean. What “devastated periphery economics” was living way beyond their means. They *chose* to do that. Now we’ll hopefully have rules we *all* have to stick to.

Joseph. I asked a question, I didn’t make a statement.

Gary Clowry, please, don’t exhibit your ignorance! In 2007, when the crisis started, Ireland’s Debt to GDP ratio was about 20%, one of the lowest not only in Europe, but also in the world. Our debt has grown massively (expected to reach 120% next year) as a result of the crisis, not as a cause of the crisis. This treaty does nothing to resolve the crisis, or stop it from happening again. If countries could magically cut their deficits, they would have done it by now, but they cannot while the crisis in access to finance continues. By forcing us to cut our way out of our debt, we just increase the mess we are in.
And secondly, we did not ‘choose’ to be in this position. Firstly, a large proportion of our debt is made up of the bailout we received from the Troika. Have you lost your memory, or do you remember Lenihan saying we still had 6 months worth of cash left to run the country? We were FORCED (not, ‘choose’) to take up the bailout, for the fear that markets would be spooked and it would lead to contagion of ‘healthy’ countries in the single currency like Germany. Our access to the ESM will lie on the same lines; if we need money, they will give it to us, not out of ‘charity’, but because they would pay the bigger price for sharing the same currency with us.

Ryan. Did I say our debt to GDP was otherwise? Yet you accuse me of ignorance as if I did. Not to state the obvious (and what I was actually talking about) we have run a huge deficit since 2007, the majority of which we spent on the day to day running of the country. Also while our debt to GDP was low our heavy reliance on transactional taxes was an accident waiting to happen. And of course Sean said “devastated periphery economics” which implied all of the periphery not just Ireland. Perhaps you should reread what was said.
And yes we did *choose* to guarantee all the banks and to keep spending way more than we had. Harsher decisions could have been taken sooner. Not that I’m someone who believes we can cut it all and everything will just be okay.

“The ECB illusion that the euro area has a one-size-fits-all monetary policy that cannot be adapted to individual countries. But the question of whether the common policy is the appropriate policy has to be addressed by examining its effect on individual countries — not by measuring averages.
Pre-crisis monetary policy was generally too loose but this was only evident in the periphery where it turned strong growth into a boom. It should have been tightened to benefit everyone.
Mr Bini Smaghi returns with his contention that Ireland’s taxpayers should foot the entire bill for the banks because our supervisors failed.
There is no doubt that Irish supervisors were very lax but the big problems were caused by cross-border lending and this is a shared responsibility.
The eurozone needs common supervision and an associated bank-resolution structure and the ECB failed to propose these.
Jean Claude Trichet’s mantra about a “global consensus to have no restructuring of debt”. This is total nonsense and he, as a former head of the Paris Club — the body that implements debt restructuring — knows that debt relief is common. He also knows the IMF wants debt reduced now.”
Prof. Gary O’Callaghan Dubrovnich University & Current member of the IMF’s governing council

The bailout and treaty are totally separate issues and are unrelated.

They are not unrelated.
With private banking debt on the national books, they WILL most certainly
come under the repayment of debt and the conditions this BS will impose.

Good grief nucky

We still have mutibillion debt which ever way we vote but we have access to ESM funding if we vote Yes .

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Ireland will get a debt reduction write down.

Any idea when, mystic thompson?

12th July 2012 @ 3:34pm Josephine.

Sure it won’t be 21 Dec 2012 Numpty?

Martin Dorgan, I think you misplaced words there. Am I right in thinking you meant to write: ‘ We will still have access to ESM funding which ever way we vote, but we will have even more multibillion debt if we vote yes?’ Because, coming to think of it, austerity causes an economy to shrink, resulting in the need of money to be accessed through borrowing as the economy can’t make it itself. I think what you meant to write makes more sense al right. Good Call!

I’m sure Josephine.

Hey Tom, about as sure as
“Ireland will get a debt reduction write down.” lol

Ya lovable goon!

Ireland will get a debt reduction write down? I assume you mean by voting no. Because being best boy in class and voting yes won’t get it.

Mark my words. it’s on the way.

Well now that takes the biscuit. Nucky claims there is no relationship at all between the treaty and the bailout. Wow! I’ve got to admire that statement for sheer brass balls.

Then tell me what the relationship is?

What’s on the way Nucky? a writedown or a sweetener for a yes vote?

A write-down after the treaty is implemented. The EU know that our debt and the requirements of the treaty are misaligned.

They’ve known it all along nucky and have done nothing. Whats so special about after the treaty is ratified and their terms are set in stone?

If nucky knows something we don’t, and he knows there’s a writedown on the cards,
then its simple. FG are looking to the polls. if it looks like a yes vote will win the day,
then they’ll wait for a bit after a ‘successful’ ref and announce how they bravely fought for and got a
writedown and, by jasus, won’t they large that one up and sell us on how deadly cool our EU partners are,
and shure it was on no small part on FGs part.
If it looks like the polls are going against a yes vote, within a day or 2 before 31st of may,
they will ‘announce’ a ‘great deal’ for ireland, and sway the “im voting no based only on a basis of a writedown”…….
playing for a win-win

THAT is the quality of democracy is this mighty western world we in habit….

Well said Eric!
Never a truer word posted.

Fully agree Eric and Sean.

If anyone who talks of democracy ( the likes of which Gary Clowry will sidestep),
has even an ounce of interest in their own talk, will examine this further…
and that is leaving aside, as you say even 1 ounce of courage….

Anyway fellas, I salute both of you right now for both your critical thinking and your courage.

Long Live REAL Democracy and Decency

Keep the faith…

What did I sidestep exactly? I answered your questions on the other article, did I miss something?

Where did this figure come from “pure fiction”

Based on the Department of Finances figures published in April BEFORE our growth projection was downgraded, the adjustment required in 2015 to bring Ireland in line with the 0.5% structural defecit rule under the fiscal compact is between €5-6 Billion.

You know yourself this has nothing to do with the treaty. Voting Yes or No and nothing changes in that regard. These figures are in the Six Pack (2011). To address your point, the expert that Sinn Fein quoted in their leaflet has explained these incorrect figures and references. I wont be repeating them as I am not an economist and Karl clearly does a better job then I ever could.

http://karlwhelan.com/blog/?tag=austerity-treaty

You know yourself it does. If you really don’t I would advise you to read the Treaty (the real one, not the shortened version mailed to everyone’s doors). I may not be an economist (yet), but I am studying economics. If this was a false statement, why don’t the yes side say so, instead of dodging the bullet when being asked the question (I can tell you however, that it is not false if you want my word for it)

If karls such a wonderful economist kevin, how come is not among the ranks of economists who predicted what happened, like David Mc Williams?

If you’re going to post opinions of people who back up your agenda as a member of fine gael, please try to use people who have got it right so far.

Here’s the economist Seamus Coffey explaining how we can meet the targets with just inflation and nominal growth.
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/whats-on-table.html

Oooh, seamus coffey. Big deal. At least you’ve stopped linking to that dodgy spreadsheet from your mate on boards.ie There are economists out there who are held in far higher regard who are advocating a ‘no’ vote. Rather than post a blog of somebody whos opinion happens to suit your agenda, try arguing your position once in a while.

Gurdgiev is a paid member of Ganleys right wing think tank who would like as the ukip party scupper the euorozone for their own selfishness . Another tea party would be two too many

Dr Gurdgiev is a paid lecturer in Trinity. All I can comment on is that his analysis of the crisis and his predictions have been accurate to date. Unfortunately, he doesn’t lecture me, but all my economics lecturers have pretty much stated. when asked their opinions, that this treaty is economic suicide for Ireland. They are not members of Libertas or any other organisation, only highly trained lecturers teaching in Trinity. Questions?

Martin, are Krugman & Stiglitz also “paid up members” of Ganley’s club?

This is what we’re voting on… (A list I stole off boards.ie)

What’s in existing agreements:
1. the 3% deficit rule
2. the 60% debt rule
3. the structural balance rule
4. the penalties and procedures attached to breaches of the rules

What’s new:
1. transposing the fiscal rules into national law
2. creating a national ‘correction mechanism’
3. making 1 and 2 subject to a ruling of the CJEU
4. the voting mechanism for determining whether the rules have been breached, which moves from requiring majority to support to requiring a majority to block

And finally access to the ESM cash.

Can we make this about what’s in the treaty? Though I’m sure your poetry is lovely.

Alistiar Darling the former british minister for finance under Gordon Brown descibed the fiscal pact as madness. He said “it locks countries on the edge into a downward spiral like the Treaty of Versailles at the end of the first world war with the result that their economies shrink and the debts go up. This is just daft.”

Linofax. Firstly we have already agreed to the debt rules (see above), some from decades ago. Secondly we can achieve the targets with us inflation and nominal growth.
Here’s the economist Seamus Coffey explaining it.
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/whats-on-table.html

I refer my honourable friend to the answer I gave some moments ago.

Susan – Your choice of photo is a bit biased toward the Yes side. Photo has 1 No poster and 5 Yes!! I know its probably hard to get a photo like that with an equal amount of each so maybe next time you could pick a photo with no referendum posters.

@Gary we have agreed to nothing but your leader Kenny took it upon himself to sign without going to the electorate because he knew what we would say then he tried to get out of having a Referendum and failed there too so do not dare tell Me I have signed up to my Children’s and future generations Poverty here in a country that my Brave Forefathers gave up si much for You Gary and all your Blue shirt friends are a total disgrace and have proven to be liars and should be charged with Treason

I’m voting no but that’s tripe he’s crap

Still waiting for BB to tell us where the money is going to come from to run the country (other than soundbite claptrap like “tax the rich”) – until he can do this he has no credibility and its just fairytale economics.

I love the way ‘fairytale economics’ is espoused by Nobel Prize winning economists. The money (if the 20,000 millionaires in this country cannot shoulder a bit more) can be taken by cutting wastage. And what about the IMF, Sweden, Denmark and the UK, and scrapping the 4 billion per annum on Anglo-Irish promissory notes? Worst come to the worst, the EU will force us take a bailout because they cannot afford to have a member of the eurozone pull the plug. See the worry about Greece?

I welcome further questions! :D

You could start by showing some figures to demonstrate how you’re going to balance the books – how much extra tax income you will generate from the wealthy and exactly where and by how much you’re proposing to make the cuts.

I see you’re also resorting to the usual “No” side line of “We’re bound to get money from Europe…” which is said more in hope than certainty. There are no guarantees.

Actually no matt. Its about common sense. Will the eurozone and ECB allow a catastrophic default of the country thats actually implementing its program and making it repayments, possibly bringing the €6 Trillion house of cards down, or do they extend the program (as they have stated earlier this year that they will do) knowing we will repay them?

“hope” is depending solely on the ESM which isn’t even large enough to cover greece, spain and the next country in trouble, probably Italy.

The logic of the left is a huge gamble on us receiving a write down of debt which a fallacy and not a measure in which to run a debt problem. Economic Growth coupled with the stability pact stimulus is the best bet we have at the moment.Voting Yes is ensuring this can happen .
Sinn Fein talks of gambling and the bluffing they are sending out must be seen for what it is .In the North they control the devolved government and austerity is far greater with household charges at €1800 as an average and they want us to follow suit.

100% correct . So called left wing parties forget who they are supposed to be representing.

Do you ever bring anything to the discussion besides labelling kingstown?

What the entire debate misses so far is the very relevant point that if the terms of reference of the ECB were changed, its charter, it would allow it to basically print money as the Bank of England as done and as the Fed did under the TARP. Burton and the rest are so busy threatening the electorate that the big issues are beyond them.

Martin, You’re right in respect to the Labour party. And we all know who FF represent.

Kingstown wake up and look around you it is capitalism that has failed and caused the situation we are in

You might be better being more specific and asking… ‘Do you have any solid reasons for voting yes or no that are actually contained in the treaty?’
Because quite honestly otherwise you’ll get a flood of stuff that has no bearing on what’s actually in it. I posted a list above.

don’t think you’ll get an answer i’ve asked before and all you get is a lot of what sounds like we should shoot ourselves in the foot just to show politicians from the no side the yes side generally stays quiet but what is said is less hysterical

Scarr, Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev of TCD has not put a foot wrong yet with respect to his analysis of this crisis. He has likened this compact to economic suicide, as have Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz. Two nobel prize winning economists.

“Even for the deficit hawk like myself, the Fiscal Pact is equivalent to an economic suicide. The Pact formula of 3%-0.5%-60% is a combination of the already failed Stability and Growth Pact targets enriched with the lethally obscure and totally unattainable 0.5% structural deficit limit.

Between 1990 and 2008 – in other words, before the crisis hit – Ireland was able to satisfy the 0.5% structural deficit target only once in very 10 years, same as Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain never once satisfied this criterion. Two best performers in the euro area – Malta and Finland have met the target in 6 out of the 19 pre-crisis years. In terms of 0.5% structural deficit rule, all member states, except Germany will require further austerity measures.”
Dr Gurdgiev

Currently, Irelands taxpayers are on the hook for €30 billion to our own central bank for funds that were seignorised (created out thin air) by that bank and used to bailout Anglo bondholders.
These funds were lent to the state at a punitive rate of 7%. This was dictated by the ECB. With interest included Irelands taxpayers will end up paying back €48 billion. The principle (30 billion) will be deseignorised once paid back. This is at the ECB’s insistence.
Declan Ganley is suggesting that Irish voters refuse to ratify until this debt is written off as our own overpaid politicans refuse to even open negotiations on this debt.

Scarr – if you have time I would recomend that you watch last weeks episode of Panorama which is available on BBC iPlayer. It explains the crash and why a “one size fits all” policy doesnt work. Also if you have the time and the cash you should try and buy the book “What If Ireland Defaults” which contains essays by many Irish and international economists and academics including Constantin Gurgdiev, Peter Browne. Megan Greene, Peter Mathews and Joseph Stiglitz winner of the 2001 Nobel economics prize winner, to name but a few. Well written and easy to understand.

You should also try and check out David McWilliams punk economics (just google it). Hope this helps.

Because of the way this has been covered on both sides people are either confused or voting on other issues. It is difficult to discuss the treaty without considering the implications of the clause (access to funding). I personally believe that the only way to cut through the propaganda (again on both sides) is to read the treaty ignoring the funding issue just while your considering it. The journal has a great simplified version available. If you give yourself time to consider the treaty on it’s own I feel it will give you a clearer perspective.
Missing in this debate is the outcomes if this treaty is passed. How will we achieve the stated targets and over what time frame. Personally I would like a definition of the structural deficit prior to ratifying it and can any country opt out of this in the future.

Because of the way this has been covered on both sides people are either confused or voting on other issues. It is difficult to discuss the treaty without considering the implications of the clause (access to funding). I personally believe that the only way to cut through the propaganda (again on both sides) is to read the treaty ignoring the funding issue just while your considering it. The journal has a great simplified version available. If you give yourself time to consider the treaty on it’s own I feel it will give you a clearer perspective.

Missing in this debate is the outcomes if this treaty is passed. How will we achieve the stated targets and over what time frame. Personally I would like a definition of the structural deficit prior to ratifying it and can any country opt out of this in the future.

Honest Gary will soon put you straight with his list. However, … caveat emptor!

Ah Trueleft I’ve got a new list. I didn’t write this one either though.

Taken from boards.ie
It’s a short Treaty, so it’s not a long list, but I’d say the following:

1. harder for the bigger countries (or any country) to evade fiscal discipline – that’s the change in the excessive deficit procedure mechanism.

2. a set of Irish institutions to keep an eye on the government’s structural balance, which is underlying government spending without temporary or once-off measures, according to a Europe-wide set of criteria.

3. the requirement to have an Irish correction mechanism that kicks in when, according to the judgement of the institutions in (2), the government is committing to excessive structural spending.

4. better coordination of economic affairs across the eurozone.

5. access to ESM, although that’s not really due to anything specific to the Treaty.

(2) and (3) there are the most appealing to me. We have a dreadful lack of independent scrutiny of our government’s spending plans – neither our media nor our opposition are up to the job, while our entirely domestic “independent institutions” are rarely independent, and if they show any signs of criticising the government are usually called sharply to heel by a rewrite of their legislative basis – the Referendum Commission is a case in point.

Under the Treaty, such bodies have to be created by legislation which, vitally, is then subject to review by not only the EU Commission but by the other signatories, and Ireland can be taken to the CJEU and fined if the legislative basis for them and their scrutiny mechanisms does not produce proper independence.

So, while (2) and (3) could be done domestically, making them the subject of a Treaty is a very much better bet. And I do think they’re something we need.

Phillipa.
Here’s the economist Seamus Coffey explaining how we can meet the targets with just inflation and nominal growth.
http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/whats-on-table.html

by ‘We’, who are you referring to? Because, as far as I can see, the bailout was not to help the ordinary people and build up our economy, but rather to safeguard the interests of the Euro project and its German Franco heart.
And, I think everyone agrees that we are part of the EU. And this treaty changes nothing with regards to that last fact.

How about we balance our budget…. Stop feeding on junkie credit FFS…
Don’t be selfish wanting the government to borrow more to prop up the way to generous SW system… The over paid public servants… It’s just wrong to borrow more and more to pay what we can’t afford. Why do we still pay the second highest minimum wage, the highest politicians salaries, and public sector wages are a joke when compared to our European cousins…. Here is a fair idea to start with, why not pay all public servants, politicians and sw rates based on the average of what Italy, Spain, Germany and France pay. Can u imagine how much we could save? Can any economist answer this question for me? Why not sort this out and stop borrowing… All u credit junkies wake up…. It has to be paid back… Ur kids / grandchildren will still be paying the interest in this debt… Rant over…

Mojo – I dont know where you think you are going with your “way too generous social welfare”. You want to try living on it yourself.

Martin, don’t try the scare tactics on us. Its blatantly obvious that funding will be available to Ireland rather than a disorderly default be allowed happen.

Reasons to vote Yes: ‘I love the EU and I really want to be friends with them. They are so kind, they are making a charity box for everyone, so that we can all access funding to help ourselves GROW, become STABLE and magically receive INVESTMENT. But if we don’t say yes, they would in no way try to FORCE this charity upon us, because they respect our decision ALWAYS, regardless how STUPID we are.’

Reason to vote no, read the above.

You reckon Ann… Well can u tell me who is better off… A citizen in Ireland receiving SW or the average welfare rate paid out amongst the 4 countries I mentioned… We do we pay ourselves way more….. We also pay way more than our neighbors who are not in the deep shit we are in!!!! So just cause u don’t like what I said I know it ain’t popular but who do we think we are….

By the way I’m 100 % voting no

Well why don’t you post your critique of the ‘no’ side and we’ll see whether people deny it or tear it to shreads?

Not sure where your comment belongs…
But best of luck Rafal in all your endeavours

Rafal. In Ireland a guard gets 50 euro for leaving the station each time they turn up for work. They get 4000 euro a year to fix their shoe leather etc. If Fas worked correctly with their budget we would has far less people on the dole. We as a nation need to concentrate on what we can change in OUR defunct systems before we judge anyone else. Our politicians have taken a 30% pay cut and they are still among the highest payed. I ask why does the citizens of Ireland not only accept this but also advocate loosing even more sovereignty. Why is this now a dirty word in Ireland. New master over all else.