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Dublin: 15 °C Sunday 19 May, 2013

Poll: Who do you think will win the US presidential election?

The final debate took place in Florida last night, with two weeks to go before America decides on Obama or Romney. But who will they choose?

Image: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP/Press Association Images

THE US PRESIDENTIAL election is now exactly two weeks away, with the latest polls showing the race tightening in the final days.

Up until the first debate in Denver at the beginning of the month, incumbent Democrat Barack Obama had a lead over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in many polls.

But Obama’s performance was widely-panned that night and though in the two debates – including one on foreign policy last night – that have followed he has gained some ground, a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll earlier this week saw the candidates locked on 47 per cent each.

So with three debates completed and the election days away we want to know: Who do you think will win the US presidential election?


Poll Results:





Read: ‘Cliffhanger’ US election awaits as debates wrap up

As it happened: Obama and Romney battle in the final US presidential debate

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Comments (81 Comments)

  • I think it’ll be close, Bush v Dole close but I think Obama will get it.

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  • God I hope Obama.. For the world’s sake.

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  • Whoever has bent over far enough for APAC will win it.

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  • Romney would make an interesting President from the point of view of having yet another village idiot in the White House.

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  • It’s curious how the elections in the US are trumpeted as “democracy at work”. In effect, you can choose column A or column B. Oh well. As for the poll, both have serious faults. I wouldn’t want to have to make that kind of a choice.

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  • O H I O !!!

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  • Who will win the election? The bankers that run everything anyway.

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  • Ron Paul.

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  • I want the guy who promises to close Guantanamo Bay and end the unjust and illegal wars in the Middle East. Oh wait, that was that Obama lad. Whatever then, just elect the guy who’s best for the banks and the corporatocracy.

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  • Wall st.

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  • tim 23/10/12 #

    It’s coke v Pepsi so which ever corporates invest the most that’s who wins,Americans only believe what they see on tv.

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    • Generalize much?

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    • That’s right, all 310 million of us had our annual meeting last week, and wouldn’t you know it…we all agreed on everything as dictated to us by the media. Didn’t seem to matter that we come from every ethnic and cultural background and all social classes. We just turned on the television and listened to what the corporations told us so we knew exactly what to think.

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    • let me remind my American friends that Romney was well behind because of his public gaffes, but went level after the tv debates. I voted for him because I believe the American public fall for spin and sound bytes and right now that’s Romney and his media machine

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    • Dave Mac 23/10/12 #

      Seems about right Michael..

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    • Dave, so using your logic about how to group people together, surely you must have drinking and fighting to attend to or some horses to get to market? Stereotypes are fun aren’t they? Saves a person from thinking too much and makes every conspiracy seem even more believable. But let me guess, you know the real truth of things, you must because you have internet access…

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    • Well Micheal,
      The American Presidential election is only one step away from Americas got Talent. In a media controlled country, where the major players are allowed to simply make up news to suit policy makers and lobbyists. You have to admit that Tim has a point.. Fox was recently banned from canada for that exact reason.. Its not necessarily the peoples fault. But a major issue all the same.

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    • Dave, I agree big money has too much influence in the electoral process in the States. However, as someone who is American and lived in New Hampshire for 10 years before moving to Ireland a few years ago (NH being a very political state). I can tell you that there are a great deal of very clued in people (from all sides) who are as exasperated by this as anyone in the world. When you make generalisations such as the ones you and Tim are making what are you basing them on exactly? The 2% of voters who change their mind based on the news cycle? And where are you getting your information from exactly? The highlights of the electoral process as edited and presented by…wait for it…the media.

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  • While the election will be a lot closer than I originally thought, I still believe that Obama will shade it.
    Romney is now set to win Florida, which does put him in contention.
    However, if Obama wins just three swing states-Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada then he gets over the line, even if Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire!!

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  • phil 23/10/12 #

    Its an absolute shame that the American media focuses on two candidates and the American public follows what they see on TV. Gary Johnson is a brilliant candidate on the libertarian ticket. Would be a far better president than either of the war mongers.

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    • What wars did Obama start? Any wars / conflicts America is involved in at the moment are legacies from the Bush era!

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    • phil 23/10/12 #

      Drone strikes in Pakistan a clear violation of international law has killed more civilians than terrorists. He got involved in Lybia where within 10 years the guns, and training he gave the rebels will be used against America. The sanctions bringing poverty to ordinary Iranians all because if Iran gets a nuke America can never invade. Obama is the lesser of two evils here.

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    • John, that’s an easy excuse for Obama’s continuation of a terrible foreign policy. I’m not excusing Bush in anyway, just saying that it’s always easy to blame the old regime for lack of decision making in the current one.
      Don’t forget he went back on his promise to close Guantanamo Bay torture centre.

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  • Michael 23/10/12 #

    It’s very simple.

    Romney for domestic and economic issues.

    Obama for social and foreign policy.

    Goldman Sachs and Merrill-Lynch for real decision making.

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  • Paddypower gives Obama 66% chance of winning. Romney 33%.

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  • We should be more concerned with our own politics. Our situation is grave our people picking and choosing what taxes to import from europe i.e. property tax. Oh yeah lets forget about european social security because that might cost the gov. money

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    • Damien 23/10/12 #

      Who do you think will win the >>> US <<< presidential election?

      We have enough doom and gloom about our own country in every direction we look, this is about the US.

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  • i hope obama wins. its looking very tight at the moment if the opinion polls arm anything to go by. i just think, personally, that republican policies are way to idealistic and pie in the sky. there is deep division within the republican party with huge issues like abortion etc. plus i just don’t like romney

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  • The Hanging Chad will win.

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  • Don’t know and, indeed, don’t care.

    But before someone chirps up and goes “Oh if you don’t care why did you respond?” I don’t care because it doesn’t matter. Whoever the US president is doesn’t make huge amounts of difference to the rest of us.

    Whoever it is he’ll make decisions that are based on what the US wants over and above what we want, for ever and always. If it affects us positively hurroo and hurrah but “whatever” as far as the yanks are concerned.

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  • Who would Jim Corr want as US President I wonder??? Withdraw!!! Withdraw!!!! madam!!!!

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    • He’d want the kenyan to win it.

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    • Jim corr wears tinfoil hats who cares what he thinks.

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    • Martin 23/10/12 #

      Yeah the media did a right job on Jim Corr, and on Charlie Sheen, Rosie O’Donnell, Wille Nelson, Edward Asner…etc, not to mention thousands of architectics, structral engineers, pilots, firemen, police and victims families that have all been vilfied by the same media sure there all nutjobs. Who did they all think they were questioning offical theories, so what if the offical story defied the laws of physics and had more holes than a tea bag. The media has told us as soon as we hear thier names ignore what they say and call them tin foil hat wearing nutters. And thats what I’m goin to do too, I dont want any one seeing me going against the herd.

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  • D yanks are brainwashed!! You should see d news here,it’s so biased & twisted!! There’s a massive untruth told about any American government!!why they back Israel do much etc..just even d news compared to rest of world it’s completely diff. To rest of world!!
    But having said that Ireland’s government is just as corrupt & stupid!!

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  • Who gives a flying shit? It’ll be more of the same bullshit either way. It might be a good idea to perhaps CONCENTRATE ON OUR OWN COUNTRY’S BULLSHIT POLITICS.

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  • it doesn’t matter who wins in any election take a look at what happened here, they are all the same despite the rhetoric .

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  • Barack of course ! Mark my words

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  • What about…Don’t care?

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    • Barry 23/10/12 #

      You may not care but like it or lump it in impacts Ireland and the world in general, so its rather foolish not to care

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    • If he doesnt care, it doesnt make him foolish, you shouldnt make comments like that.

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    • Actually Pádraig, it does make him foolish.

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    • the don’t care option is not to click on the story, rather than click read it , the options, and make the first comment…

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    • Go Romney. Great to see the Irish support for him on here!

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    • Niall 23/10/12 #

      @Mark, don’t mix up support for Romney with who do people think will win. If the election was in Ireland Obama would trounce him with 90% plus of the vote as per a poll done here before.

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    • The individual in charge is irrelevant.. Th policy dictators behind the scenes will be the same..

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    • @Bilbo – i fully agree. the “who cares” BS is becoming almost as boring as “burn the bondholders”, “sack them all” and “I hope he burns in hell”.

      Every story on the journal is pretty much categorised as one of the above at this point.

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    • good stuff martin!

      couldn’t give a rats either! …time for a egg and toast…

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    • Just look at the betting odds… They’re rarely wrong when it comes to elections… Obama 2/5, Romney 15/8.
      It’s not even close. Romney has alienated himself from too many ordinary Americans, and from our point of view, he seems determined on a war with Iran, which will immediately mean a rise in oil prices. This was clearly evident in last nights debate, which Obama slightly shaded. Romney is a charismatic speaker and one of the best liars in the business.

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    • Ok ill be as ridiculous as the comments above…. 90% of the people that comment on this website are delusional.

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    • Policies will remain largely unchanged. If you never told the Americans who won the election, they probably wouldn’t be able to figure it from the impact it has on their lives. It is such a poor choice to make–like “Do you want to be shot at midnight or hung at dawn?” America has been screwed since they passed the “Patriot Act” after 9/11. The police have become an army of occupation in American cities. Phones and computers are tapped without court orders. Extrajudicial executions are carried out both in the country and around the world. Capital aggregation is taking place at a breakneck speed. Do you think either one of these guys is going to back away from the power levers? How strange they take credit for the collapse of the Soviet Union, only to mimic that state 20 years later. I’m no young man, so I can look back over 50 years and see the turn to the right. The average American has been losing out since about 1973 or thereabouts. What is called a “centerist” today would have been a right-winger 40 years ago.

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  • Vote Romney…. His parents are Irish! LOL

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  • I think we will have a repeat of the 2000 scenario but with the party’s reversed. I expect Obama to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. Then the mother and father of all legal-battles will commence. Many Irish people don’t realise that the American president is not chosen by the people directly but rather by a body called the Electoral College. It is a state-based system in which each state has a number of members called electors who are selected based on which candidate wins the state. It’s winner takes all for all the states except Nebrasks and Maine, which apportion electors based on Congressional district (Obama won the 2nd Congressional district in 2007 and so got one elector there). You need 270 votes on the Electoral College to become president. If you get 260-269 then the House of Representatives divides into state-delegations to choose the President, while the Senate does the same and chooses the VP. As the Senate is expected to remain Democratic, there is a prospect of a GOP President and a Dem VP.

    Also, electors are not bound to vote as their state does, meaning that so-called “faithless electors” can defect to another side. Some states have punishments for this but most do not. 3 of Romney’s elector-slate have saif they may not vote for him (former Paul supporters) but one of them has resigned. The national polls are all over the place but it’s the state-polls you need to watch. Romney’s leads are based on the South but Obama is leading in the Midwest and West so he can win without them. The realclearpolitics.com “no toss up” map has Obama leading 282-257. Expect the GOP not to take an Electoral College Obama victory without the popular vote lying down, and remember the Supreme Court is mostly GOP so may prove more sympathetic to them than it was to Gore in 2000.

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  • Ernie & Bert there debate on foreign policy was and i quote “interrupt them kill them replace them” people, nations, cultures these lunatics are on about. The leaders of the free world.Lord Jacob De Rothschild and his brother Lord Evelyn De Rothschild will win this election they have or their father has since Woodrow Wilson back in 1913.A farce and a joke and if your thinking otherwise G.W. rigged his first term my niece knows that and she’s only 20 yrs old.Hypocracy of Democracy and that’s not bashing the American people what can they do thet have only 2 candidates with the same brain to choose from.

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  • 2 corrections of my earlier post:

    “The realclearpolitics.com “no toss up” map has Obama leading 281-257″

    and

    “(Obama won the 2nd Congressional district in 2007 and so got one elector there)”

    *Facepalm*

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  • Barack has it! It may be close but he will pull through!

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  • KM O'S 23/10/12 #

    Jill Stein!!

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