FINANCE MINISTER PASCHAL Donohoe was on the verge of sanctioning a €10 increase in carbon tax only for a later change of mind, departmental documents show.
A pre-budget submission for the minister prepared by his officials reveal that he had been preparing to sign off on the tax hike in advance of Budget 2019.
However, the increase never went ahead amid fears over Brexit and how higher costs would impact on people who did not have options to choose renewable or cleaner energy sources.
A copy of the submission includes a note from Donohoe, who wrote: “I am currently minded to implement a €10 increase on Budget Day.”
The €10 increase would have raised around €210 million in exchequer funding had it proceeded according to the document.
In an executive summary, civil servants told Donohoe that increasing the tax rate would support climate change policy and “send a signal” to the public about government policy.
The minister was told that there have been calls for a 400% increase in carbon tax rate over the next decade.
The summary stated:
In order to meet climate change targets, which currently appears difficult, there have been calls for a long-term strategy to increase the carbon tax rate to €80 (per tonne CO2) by 2030. The current rate of €20 has been in place since 2012.
The submission warned that the increase might “disproportionately” hit low-income households who were already at risk of fuel poverty.
It also said that businesses with particularly large energy spends would also be hit.
To try and minimise the impact, it was suggested that the department could increase the rate paid as part of the National Fuel Scheme, an allowance paid for fuel purchases for social welfare recipients and others.
Separately, changes to the diesel rebate scheme could also be used to reduce the impact on hauliers and bus operators.
Bleak
The submission painted a bleak picture of how Ireland was doing in meeting its climate change targets saying that emissions had actually increased in a number of areas in recent years, including transport and residential homes.
However, it said even advocates for carbon tax accepted that increases could hurt households that were most at risk of “fuel poverty”.
“Households dependent on more carbon intensive fuels such as oil and solid fuels are more likely to experience fuel poverty,” it said.
The submission also said there were “cross border” risks associated with increasing carbon tax particularly if the UK did not follow suit or “sterling continues to weaken”.
It said that so-called “fuel tourism” where motorists cross the border to buy petrol and diesel was a double-edged sword.
While one study found drivers from Northern Ireland had helped generate €230 million in transport taxes in the south, this had added 2% to the Republic’s annual greenhouse gas emission levels.
Fuel prices were more or less the same on both sides of the border at the time of the submission.
A greater problem was that significantly higher taxes on solid fuels in the Republic meant that there was ongoing problems with the “illicit sale of solid fuels”.
“This includes high sulphur coal, which is damaging to public health, jeopardises legitimate business in the South as well as depriving the Exchequer of Revenue,” it said.
Households
The submission also explained how the impact of increased carbon tax would have dramatically different impacts on different households.
This would depend on the BER rating of homes, whether they were on the gas network, and the availability of public transport with rural areas much more likely to be hit hard.
In a statement, the Department of Finance said that Brexit had been a key factor in the minister’s change of heart on increasing carbon tax in the budget.
It said: “While some households are in a good position to reduce their carbon footprints, others may not have such choices available to them, at least not yet.”
Ireland has relatively high fuel tax rates in OECD terms. At current prices, total fuel taxes (including the NORA [oil reserve] levy) is about 60% of the retail price on a litre of petrol and 54% on a litre of diesel.
The department also said fuel prices had increased significantly over the past year, with diesel and petrol prices both up by over 10%.
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