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Michael Healy Rae and Sinn Féin in the lead in Kerry, as Greens in the mix for 5th seat

The TG4 poll seems to indicate that support for the Healy Raes may be falling. Meanwhile, support for the Green candidate is at 9%

Image: Sam Boal

MICHAEL HEALY RAE and Sinn Féin candidate Pa Daly are tied for first place in Kerry, while Danny Healy Rae is polling at 4%, according to the latest TG4/Ipsos MRBI poll.

Michael Healy Rae is polling at 20%, down from 33% in the poll before the last election. He won 20,000 of first preference votes in 2016, with a quota of 13,213.

In a poll before the election in 2016, Danny Healy Rae was also polling at 4%, but won 13% of first preference votes in the end. He secured his seat after transfers from his brother (this poll only captures first preferences, it should be noted).

Elsewhere, Martin Ferris’ seat looks set to be passed on to the next Sinn Féin candidate, Pa Daly. The TG4 poll shows that he’s on 20%, tied with Michael Healy Rae.

Minister of State for Tourism and Sport Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) is polling at 17%, up from 13% in polls ahead of the 2016 general election.

Next is Fianna Fáil’s Norma Foley on 10%, the Green Party’s Cleo Murphy on 9%, and Fianna Fáil John Brassil on 9% (down from 11% in 2016).

Artboard 2 Source: TG4/Ipsos MRBI

An analysis of these results to get an indication of party support has indicated that Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the combined Healy Rae support are all tied at 23%.

However the comparison with results from the General Election in 2016 will leave both main parties feeling considerably happier about that than the Healy Raes (FF up from 16%, FG up from 21%, Healy Raes down from 38%).

Sinn Féin look set to increase their support to 20%, beating the quota in the process, while the Green Party look to have gained substantially from 2016, where their support was at 1% to put themselves in the running for the last seat.

Ipsos MRBI are carrying out three polls on behalf of TG4 in Donegal, Kerry and Galway – representing the three main Gaeltacht areas – as part of their Vóta 2020 programme.

The results of the Donegal poll showed that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty is on course to top the poll, and that Sinn Féin could gain a second seat. In Galway West, the Social Democrats’ and Green Party look like they could win a TD each, while Independent candidates Catherine Connelly and Noel Grealish are polling on 9% and 7% respectively.

The survey was conducted among a sample of 538 adults aged 18 upwards in the Kerry constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI.

Interviewing took place on Saturday 1 and Sunday 2 February. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

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