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Boylan, Crowley and Ming looking good: What the exit polls say about the Euro vote

No counts yet but we can make some predictions.

One of the many number 1's likely for Boylan.
One of the many number 1's likely for Boylan.
Image: Laura Hutton/Photocall Ireland

SINN FÉIN COULD take three European Parliament seats and Fine Gael four as Labour face a whitewash according to the latest exit poll figures.

RTÉ’s exit poll shows that Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan, Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley and Independent Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan are pulling in the biggest first preferences shares in Dublin, South and Midlands North West respectively.

In Dublin, Lynn Boylan is polling at 24 per cent, clearly ahead of Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes and Eamon Ryan of the Green Party at 14 per cent.

Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick is polling at 12 per cent, way below the party’s national share of 22 per cent according to to the same poll.

Ahead of any facts coming in as yet, three sitting MEP’s could be in danger of losing out in the capital. Nessa Childers (11 per cent), Emer Costello (8 per cent) and Paul Murphy (7 per cent).

In the South constituency, sitting MEP Brian Crowley leads the pack in the exit poll at 26 per cent, ahead of SF’S Liadh Ní Riada at 17 per cent. FG’s three candidates of Seán Kelly, Deirdre Clune and Simon Harris are lining up behind them in the four seater in that order.

FG’s strategy of running three candidates to win possibly two seats was a source of debate within the party and how their transfers work out between them will prove crucial when the European results are released tomorrow night.

A number of the party’s ministers including Frances Fitzgerald and Phil Hogan have both said that their party is well in the hunt for two seats.

In the final geographically vast Midlands North West area, Independent Dáil deputy Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan appears to be mirroring the success of Independents nationally, garnering 20 per cent of the vote.

The exit poll shows sitting MEP Maireád McGuinness running at 16 per cent with SF’s Matt Carty at 13 per cent. FF’s Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher and Marian Harkin appear to be running neck-and-neck at 11 per cent.

If you add FF’s Thomas Byrne into the mix, there are five candidates within six per cent of each other meaning that the picture is far from clear before the votes starts coming in.

LIVEBLOG: Local election results 2014 >

Read: Independents’ Day: Exit poll shows non-party candidates topping the poll >

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About the author:

Rónán Duffy

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