THE AMOUNT OF land that has been earmarked for new homes nationwide is lagging behind what’s needed due to land-zoning being based on outdated population projections, politicians will be told today.

The Construction Industry of Federation has said the “unrealistic low projected growth” is due to data being based off old population information covering 2011-16 which it says was “one of the lowest population growth periods in recent Irish history”.

It’s part of how Ireland’s land management process for housing is “fundamentally flawed”, the CIF will tell the Oireachtas Housing Committee later today.

Irish Water will urge the same committee of TDs and senators that it needs fresh powers to compulsorily purchase land to allow it to speed up connections for sites.

Latest data from Census 2022 shows that Ireland’s population has hit close to 5.15 million.

CIF puts the majority of this “unrealistic low projected growth” around Dublin and the Mid East region, namely Kildare, Meath and Wicklow, in particular.

As reported by The Journal over the weekend, it is understood the new figures from Central Statistics Office (CSO) will inform the Department of Housing’s work to update the country’s National Planning Framework (NPF) and Housing for All targets.

The CIF warned that the number of houses needed is “much greater than we are currently building”, and we are now entering a “much more difficult phase” of housing provision.

It and other bodies will discuss challenges facing construction and crucial infrastructure over the coming years.

“In our experience in more recent times a significant amount of the serviced and zoned lands for residential development have now been activated or built on and we are now entering a much more difficult phase of housing provision,” Hubert Fitzpatrick, Director General Designate of the CIF, is due to tell TDs and senators.

Fitzpatrick will claim “a very tight zoning regulatory process” introduced as part of the National Planning Framework has also hindered development.

“In many locations there is a lack of forward planning for infrastructure or a delayed provision that is essential to the delivery of new homes,” his opening statement reads.

The CIF noted that “there are many different reports into how many houses are needed” this year, from 33,500 in Housing for All and up to 62,000 according to the Housing Commission.

It says that over the last number of years housing output has increased from under 10,000 units per annum in 2016 to nearly 30,000 units of last year.

“Whatever the case the number of houses we need to supply is much greater than we are currently building,” Fiztpatrick will tell politicians. 

“To deliver more homes, more zoned land, more infrastructure, more planning permissions and of course a viable and affordable product that can be funded is needed. These are the determinants of supply to a growing country with a large demand for new homes of all types and tenures.”

The provision of infrastructure on zoned residential lands is a critical component to deliver housing, with water services, wastewater, electricity, roads and public transport among the aspects needed to do so. 

The CIF is stressing that the capital budget allocated in the National Development Plan needs to be invested in key projects as soon as possible to ensure that the housing targets under Housing For All can be met.

Conor O’Connell, CIF Director of Housing and Planning Services, will argue that land zoned for housing purposes is based on “population projections from 2011 to 2016, one of the lowest population growth periods in recent Irish history”.

O’Carroll also notes that household formation size is “not reflective of European norms”, where it is of 2.3 persons per household in contrast to 2.7 in Ireland.

‘Unrealistic aspirations’

The CIF is arguing that further state support will be needed for apartment construction in particular.

“Unfortunately, Local and County Development Plans have now adopted and built in these unrealistic aspirations towards land management in their Development Plans and there are many examples of settlement caps or even the de-zoning of residential lands previously zoned for housing purposes,” O’Carroll said. 

“In many locations lands have been zoned for housing that are difficult and expensive to service and in other locations serviced or easily serviced lands have been de-zoned or not zoned.

“Our land management process for housing delivery is therefore fundamentally flawed and almost applies a “just in time” process for delivery rather than a predictive model based on realistic time frames for the delivery of infrastructure to facilitate housing. 

Builders welcome the review of the National Planning Framework and a change from six years to a 10-year timeframe for in the Planning and Development Bill, the CIF said. 

O’Carroll says the State must find a better way of paying for the timely construction of public infrastructure and it must be based on a “predictive/flexible model planned well in advance” rather than a demand-led approach.

“If we plan for 10 years, then we must provide the infrastructure for that period as well and the infrastructure plans must marry with the Development Plans,” he says.

‘Uncertainty’ over water connections

Niall Gleeson, CEO of Uisce Éireann, previously Irish Water, will tell the committee that the semi-State has “listened closely to and collaborated” with builders to speed up its connections process for housing developments, to ensure that it can keep pace with construction demand.

However, it has found that securing final consent for its infrastructure projects is a “complicated and expensive process with a high degree of uncertainty” on timelines and related costs.

Gleeson says changes are needed to planning regulations which would give Uisce Éireann “appropriate powers to complete its functions”, particularly when it comes to Compulsory Purchase Orders, Taking In Charge (TIC) laws for estates and exempted developments.

These powers currently rest with the local councils, which Uisce Éireann “believe(s) is incorrect”, Gleeson says

It has also published water and wastewater capacity registers on its website to help support development and planning.

The Department of Housing recently told The Journal that it has noted the latest publication of CSO Census data, and that it provides the evidence base to inform any revision to the National Planning Framework and subsequently any update to housing supply targets as set out in Housing for All.

Specifically, they said the CSO data release on population distribution, which is due at the end of June, will need to be looked at.

Data on housing in Ireland, as well as on household make up, which are due for publication this summer, will also have to feed in to inform such revisions in housing targets.