Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
Outbreak
How would Ireland fare in the event of a global pandemic?
Not too bad, actually.
- Australia's largest state hits record-high COVID-19 cases despite weeks of strict lockdown. 'It's a tinderbox ready to explode,' one official said.
- eToro says crypto made up 73% of trading commissions in the last quarter, as retail customers dived in
- A flight attendant says she was too exhausted to report a passenger who shoved her when a flight was overbooked: report
- US jobless claims climb for first time in 5 weeks, to 353,000
IF YOU WANT to know what the human and financial losses of a global pandemic for something like Ebola would look like, someone’s already figured it out.
In a post last year, risk modeling gurus AIR calculated that the 1918 Spanish Flu killed between 20 and 100 million people (out of a global population of 1.8 billion) and caused the equivalent of $20 billion in global losses.
AIR then plugged the 1918 pandemic data into 21st century population density and development parameters to come up with a model for what a new Spanish Flu or other serious global pandemic would look like today.
It ain’t pretty.
First, there’s the map above, showing the casualty ratio by country. As might unfortunately be imagined, developing nations fare the worst, while Western nations see the fewest casualties.
Ireland would see between 25 and 50 casualties per 100,000 members of the population.
But fewest is a relative term. Here’s their table breaking down casualties for a modified G-7 (replacing Italy with Australia):
It seems safe to conclude from this that whatever it costs to minimise the risk of a global pandemic will pale in comparison to trying to control it once it arrives.
have your say