FOR MANY IN the UK government, and the wider ranks of the Conservative Party, the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland represents an uncomfortable reminder that their Brexit is not done.
These Brexit absolutists believe the decision to leave the EU was about “taking back control”. They want to free the UK from the perceived constraints of EU regulations (even those that the UK itself passionately advocated for), believing this will unleash a supposedly subdued buccaneering spirit that, given free rein, will propel the UK to reconquer the globe through international trade.
Yet the Protocol requires the continuing application of some (not all) EU rules in Northern Ireland. Furthermore, Brexiters believe the Protocol leaves the backdoor open to EU rules, for example those on state aid, still being applied in Great Britain. For these absolutists, this is unacceptable, and the only solution in their minds is to scrap the Protocol.
Last autumn, it appeared as though the Brexit absolutists were well on the way to getting what they wanted. The UK government was poised to trigger Article 16 of the Protocol, and I, for one, was convinced they there would follow-through on their threat – I wrote as much for this website. However, the UK government blinked, apparently prompted by a Chancellor who was rightly concerned about the serious consequences for the UK economy of starting a completely avoidable trade war with the EU.
Since then, the Protocol has largely receded into the background in Great Britain, if not, for obvious reasons, Northern Ireland, and the political wheel has turned. David Frost, who had emerged as the most vocal cheerleader for an absolutists’ Brexit, reduced himself to the position of a newspaper columnist, agitating from the sidelines rather than at the heart of government. Liz Truss became Brexit negotiator, and after a brief flirtation with resetting relations with the European Commission, fell back on a familiar pattern of complaining about EU intransigence. Meanwhile, scandal after scandal hit Number 10, occupying the government’s time, the media’s political coverage, and the inboxes of Conservative MPs, which filled with angry correspondence from constituents.
It is the fall-out from these scandals that now frames what will happen next on the Protocol.
While he appears unwilling to admit it himself, Boris Johnson’s premiership is over. Consequently, the only game in town in Westminster is the increasingly regular contest to become the next Conservative Party leader and, by default, the UK’s next Prime Minister.
Candidates are preparing themselves – teams are being recruited, websites built, donors courted, and backroom deals struck. Every decision by candidates and their supporters is now being made through the prism of this coming contest, including those on Northern Ireland and the Protocol. The result will be more performative politics as leadership hopefuls try to convince Conservative Party members that they deserve to be the next Prime Minister.
This is not to say that there will be no moments of apparent substance. The publication of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was one of these. Through this, the UK government plan to grant themselves extraordinary powers to unilaterally disapply large swathes of the agreement they signed with the EU a mere two and a half years ago. However, if the rumours are to be believed that there was an argument in Cabinet about which Minister got to present this Bill to Parliament, that was no doubt because of what being the front person to this piece of hard-Brexit legislation would signal to the Conservative base in advance of a leadership election, rather than anything to do with the Bill’s content which the vast majority of Conservative Party members (and many MPs) will never set eyes upon.
Furthermore, while Johnson remains a lame duck, the UK government cannot govern. Even before what the pro-Johnson Daily Telegraph described as his “hollow” victory in last week’s vote of confidence, this government’s record on delivery was woeful. The chances of it successfully progressing a Bill as controversial as this while competing factions try to extract a pound of flesh from a fatally wounded Prime Minister, and simultaneously seek the promise of political riches from those eager to replace him, is minimal.
What happens with this Bill in the coming months will ultimately depend on the ebb and flow of the Conservative Party leadership contest. During this, the Brexit absolutists and the few remaining pragmatists will jostle for position, but they will all take a hardline on the Protocol – the absolutists because they believe that this is the only way to get what they want, and the pragmatists for fear of being branded remainers. Meanwhile, Johnson, still in denial, will do what he has always done; pick fights with the EU to grab the headlines in a desperate attempt to cling onto power.
We should be prepared for a lot more noise, but few changes of substance. The current UK government has neither the desire nor the competence to do what is necessary to address the concerns of the people of Northern Ireland. The publication of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill demonstrates that this government would rather the UK be viewed as rogue by its allies, than roll-up its sleeves and do the hard graft of grinding thought the detail and negotiating, and the delicate work of building trust with the EU. The absolutists argue that the EU only budges when it is threatened, when in fact it will only move when it trusts its negotiating partner.
The views of this UK government are well and truly set. The EU’s opinion of it is equally firm. Consequently, we are stuck, and will remain so until the politics in London changes and allows for an honest debate about the difficult trade-offs that are an inevitable consequence of leaving the EU. Perhaps a change in Conservative Party leader will prompt this, but I would not bet the house on it.
Sydney Nash is a former civil servant and UK/EU negotiator, and a former advisor to the automotive sector on Brexit and international trade. He writes in a personal capacity and can be found @NashSGC.
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