THE 2024 IOWA caucus and New Hampshire primary have come and gone. For Democrats, whose national committee abolished the traditional elevated stature of the early tests of strength, proceedings can be succinctly summarised.
In Iowa, the party faithful have until March to post the documents identifying the person they want at the top of the ticket on 5 November. In New Hampshire, despite the facts that his name did not appear on the ballot and that the vote did not count, a commanding majority wrote in Joe Biden.
Barring a currently unforeseeable development, the incumbent President of the United States will again be the nominee to serve four more years.
On the Republican side, there seems to be clarity after the residents of just two states that are relatively small, lily white and broadly unrepresentative of America’s diversity have had their say.
Yet ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley asserts that she will carry on. Accordingly, both in assessing her increasingly quixotic pursuit of the nomination and in endeavouring to interpret the omens thus far for the general election, there is abundant complexity.
Let’s take each in turn.
Last candidates standing
Donald Trump received the support of approximately half of hearty caucus-goers in Iowa, prompting all of his credible foes, except for Haley, to suspend their campaigns. That rendered New Hampshire a one-on-one fight.
Buoyed by the backing of his vanquished rivals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, US Senator Tim Scott and wealthy entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump went all-in on the Granite State in an effort to crush Haley and effectively force her to withdraw.
Polling suggested that his barnstorming of cities and towns and galvanising adherents at packed rallies was working. A Boston Globe survey, for instance, had him twenty percentage points in front on Monday night.
Haley’s strategists, meanwhile, noted New Hampshire’s historic contrarian streak and her popularity with moderates and independents who, they contended, would opt overwhelmingly to participate in the open GOP race, rather than the meaningless Democratic contest.
There was merit to their arguments. Haley fared decently in the circumstances; it was roughly 55%-45% in Trump’s favour in the end.
But New Hampshire is exceptionally Haley-friendly territory. She is not even involved in the Nevada caucus on 8 February. She is thirty percentage points behind Trump in her home state, which delivers its verdict on the 24 February, and fifty percentage points down in Michigan.
On Super Tuesday, 5 March, citizens in sixteen states will vote. Trump holds massive leads in most of them.
In sum, Trump is pretty certain to have a sizable portion of the 1,215 delegates required to be anointed the GOP’s standard-bearer before St Patrick’s Day.
At that stage, Haley will be facing mathematical elimination and praying for a miracle. Why, then, does she ignore the handwriting on the wall?
Of course, there are Trump’s looming criminal trials and the possibility, albeit remote, that he may be convicted within months. If he were, and it became unfeasible for him to continue, she would be ideally situated to replace him, especially given that she retains an organisation and that the polling shows her to be the best challenger to President Biden.
Additionally, recent missteps, such as confusing Haley and the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, have engendered widespread questions about Trump’s mental capacity.
In the event of a visible worsening or a serious “episode” that makes it untenable for him to go on, the 52-year-old Haley could easily step in.
Further, conservative analyst Frank Luntz has postulated that Haley’s hanging on drums up interest in the primary and gets unaligned women and men who are drawn to her accustomed to ticking the box for a Republican.
They will be crucial in November when Trump will need to expand his level of support, which is mired below the 50% mark.
Luntz’s thinking is inextricably intertwined with another plausible theory: that Haley is actually seeking the vice-presidency now and that every vote she gets from a centrist Republican or independent is a persuasive advertisement of what she would bring to the table as a running mate, whether Trump can stomach her or not.
Unimaginable
To me, although there may be truth to these hypotheses, none of it fully adds up. It is improbable that there will be a final resolution in a courtroom anytime soon. It is near unimaginable that Trump would throw in the towel, or that his legions of disciples would abandon him.
As for Haley being a bridge builder and hence an optimal choice for Trump to have as his number two, that remains unlikely, not only because he is starting to loathe her, but also because the MAGA crowd reached that conclusion long ago.
Notwithstanding this undeniably well-reasoned conjecture as to her motivations, my guess is that Haley’s major donors will soon decide that there is no point in throwing money away and that she will have to admit defeat. This may happen imminently.
Looking ahead, there are strands of thought, which diverge on a partisan basis, about what can be extrapolated from Iowa and New Hampshire for the expected Biden-Trump rematch.
Biden’s people opine that there are warning signs for their putative opponent. The results and exit samples do not reflect the same past fervour for Trump among Republicans and conservatives. Some have said that they are unenthused by his third bid.
Independents and moderates in New Hampshire endorsed Haley convincingly and there is data showing that a solid majority of them prefer Biden, warts and all, to the spectre of a Trump return to the White House.
This sentiment is prominent with the university educated and with women. Very many of the latter are aggrieved, too, by the reversal of Roe v Wade at the behest of the Trump-sponsored justices on the US Supreme Court. It is no mistake that President Biden has been championing reproductive freedom this week.
Lastly, and maybe most importantly, Democratic operatives cite improving economic figures, including falling inflation and a rise in consumer confidence. Any renewed sense of positivity Americans feel about their finances will be a boon to Team Biden.
Trump’s articulate allies correctly retort that precious little can be gleaned from New Hampshire, where right wingers are in the distinct minority and Biden should win anyway. They emphasise the reality that Trump and Republicans have a significant advantage on four of five substantive issues sure to dominate debate and animate the citizenry: immigration and border security; the economy and inflation; the culture wars, apart from abortion, which Trump will pivot cleverly on; and foreign policy.
Moreover, Latino Americans, Asian Americans and, surprisingly, African American males – heretofore necessary elements of the Democratic coalition – are migrating steadily to Trump.
Polls show him in excellent position in the key battlegrounds. Forthcoming primaries and caucuses will better illustrate the extent of his appeal and the potency of his base.
There are President Biden’s manifest limitations. And there is the competitive edge Trump derives from the Electoral College system.
I am constantly being asked for a prediction by those struggling to comprehend what they are watching avidly. I have an unsatisfactory stock answer. It could go either way.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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