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yay or nay

Will they stay or will they go? Four opinion polls say Scotland result on a knife-edge


WITH JUST FOUR days to go, the latest opinion polls show the result in the Scottish independence referendum is impossible to predict with both sides almost evenly split.

Four opinion polls released today show different results, swinging from an 8-point lead for the Yes side to an 8-point lead for the No side.

The results indicate that the large number of  voters who don’t yet know how they will vote are likely to decide the outcome, with an estimated 9 or 10% of voters still not sure how to vote.

Turnout is expected to be crucial with the vote set to be the biggest in Scottish history: 97% of the electorate – almost 4.3 million people – have registered to vote in the referendum, an increase of more than 300,000 since the last general election in Britain.

The results of today’s opinion polls when the don’t knows are excluded:

ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph

  • Yes: 54%
  • No: 46%

chart The results of all ICM polls since February WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Opinium poll for The Observer

  • Yes: 48%
  • No: 52%

chart (1) WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Survation poll for the Better Together campaign 

  • Yes: 46%
  • No: 54%

chart (2) The results of all Survation polls since February WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times 

  • Yes: 51%
  • No: 49%

chart (3) Results of all PanelBase surveys since May 2013 WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Both sides of the campaign have been frantically campaigning in the last few days before Thursday’s historic vote .

The anti-independence campaign had led the polls for months but its lead has diminished in recent days with a number of polls suggesting that Yes has taken the lead.

Today’s polls suggest that the momentum has shifted to the No side again, but analysts have cautioned that the result may still be to close to call.

“The polls show that the referendum is on a knife-edge. There is everything to play for,” said Blair Jenkins, the chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign.

Read: The best quotes from Scotland’s independence referendum campaign > 

Read: Ask all you want but the government doesn’t have a view on Scottish independence > 

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