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Johnson on track to secure comfortable majority in UK general election, MRP poll suggests

This polling model accurately predicted back in 2017 that Theresa May would lose her majority.

Image: PA Archive/PA Images

BRITISH PRIME MINISTER Boris Johnson is on course to secure a comfortable majority in the upcoming UK general election, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the 2017 election outcome. 

The seat-by-seat analysis based on current polling by YouGov for The Times shows that if the election were held today the Conservative would win 359 seats (42 more than they took in 2017) and 43% of the vote. 

These results would give Johnson a majority of 68. 

In terms of seats won, this would be the Conservative’s best performance since 1987. 

The poll predicts that Labour are set to lose 51 seats, falling from 262 seats in 2017 to 211 now – and taking 32% of the vote (a nine percentage point decrease).

In terms of seats won, this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983. 

Tonight’s poll results will be closely analysed after the model accurately predicted back in 2017 that former Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority.

MRP overview seats changing hands variant-01 Source: YouGov

The British public are set to go to the polls in the general election on 12 December. 

Over the last seven days, YouGov has interviewed around 100,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the upcoming general election.

The pollster has modelled voting preferences based on gender, age, education, past vote and other factors, along with local political circumstances. 

The model will be repeated before election day using updated results.

Breakdown of seats

The current polling model has the Conservatives gaining 47 seats; 44 of which are from Labour, two are from the Lib Dems, as well as the former Speaker’s seat of Buckingham returning to the Conservative fold.

The SNP are on course to secure a further eight seats.

However, crucially for the Tories’ chance of securing their majority, YouGov notes, only two come from Boris Johnson’s party (Stirling, and East Renfrewshire).

By contrast, Labour are set to lose five seats to the SNP, with the Lib Dems losing one.

The poll predicts that Labour are on course not to take any new seats, and also lose an additional seat because of Lindsay Hoyle’s move to the Speaker’s chair.

MRP Brexit Party impact-01 Source: YouGov

YouGov outlines that its MRP model seems to suggest that the Brexit Party is hurting the Conservatives more than Labour in some neck-and-neck marginals. 

For example, in the Bury North area the YouGov model shows that race is too close to call between Labour and the Conservatives. Here, for every one vote the Brexit party is taking from Labour it is taking two from the Conservatives.

4% of 2017 Labour voters plan to back Nigel Farage’s party compared to 8% of 2017 Tory voters.

YouGov notes that if the Brexit Party didn’t stand, and all of these voters returned to the party they backed in 2017, this would boost the Conservatives’ total vote share in these seats by 3% and Labour’s vote share by only 2%, handing the seat to the Conservatives.

MRP Scotland-01 Source: YouGov

In Scotland, the poll suggests that the SNP are set to make notable gains, but fall short of their performance in 2015. 

The model shows that Labour is set to lose five of their seven seats in Scotland to the SNP. 

The swing from Conservative to SNP is much narrower, with both parties making gains nationally. As a result, the Conservatives are currently set to hold on to 11 of the 13 seats they took in 2017.

Meanwhile, the YouGov poll suggests that it is possible Labour could lose all of their North Wales seats, with the six they hold in this region looking like tight contests with the Conservatives.

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