SEA TEMPERATURES OFF the coast of Ireland are almost at levels recorded during summertime, the head of forecasting at Met Éireann, Evelyn Cusack, has said.
The unseasonably warm temperatures this month come after one of the wettest Octobers on record and the hottest summer in over 135 years.
Speaking at ‘Be Winter-Ready’, the launch of a government initiative of preparedness for possible floods and snowfall, the meteorologist said that warmer periods of weather, storms and flooding are becoming more common due to climate change.
“The current temperatures are going to continue right through the weekend,” Cusack stated.
Met Éireann has forecast top temperatures of 17 degrees for the weekend, with the temperature not predicted to dip below 13 degrees even at nighttime.
The beginning of next week will see more typical temperatures of approximately 10 to 12 degrees during the day.
“It’s so warm because the air mass over Ireland is actually coming up from the Tropics. So even though it’s quite windy today there’s no windchill because you need a temperature of less than 10 degrees to experience windchill. In fact, the temperatures are more like 16 degrees, so they’re five or six degrees above average.”
Windchill is the effect of cold air lowering the temperature of a person.
“It’s going to stay exceptionally mild until Monday,” Cusack continued.
“We have monitoring forecasts now on our website. And the forecasts for November is mild, it’s just exceptionally – you’d call it warm nearly.”
Temperatures will continue to drop as winter continues but it’s hard to predict currently if the next month will be as cold as the average December, she said.
When asked how much climate change was factoring into this month’s unusual weather, Cusack believed it was hard to say if this specific period of warmth was climate change- related.
However, weather patterns associated with climate change such as more severe and frequent rainfall over the past several years have increased, she said.
“What seems more obvious is the intense rainfall,” Cusack noted.
“We’re part of a trend of an exceptionally warm autumn in Europe and the warmer atmosphere is producing more moisture and more rain.”
“There is obviously a huge natural variation of weather at our latitude. The first manifestation of climate change for Ireland will be an increase in temperature and Ireland’s temperature has increased by over one degree in the last 100 years.
Cusack added that rain in coastal areas is often caused by sea temperatures being exceptionally high, something that has been occurring recently.
“You can see the five day sea temperature forecast on Met.ie and you would think it was the summer because we’re getting 13, 14, 15 degrees. So we’re getting these really heavy showers forming over the seas and then affecting the land.”
When asked if Met Éireann expects to be giving rain, flood and storm warnings more frequently in the coming years due to climate change, Cusack said the very nature of climate change is unpredictable.
“Met Éireann are moving more towards impact-based warning. Ten years ago we would have warned of 20-40 millimeters of rain for example. Now we’re trying to tell people the impacts that this rain will have because in October, the wettest October on record, even a small amount of rain could lead to flooding. So it’s about preparing people for the impact.”
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