MISINFORMATION AND DISINFORMATION driven by artificial intelligence (AI) ahead of elections in major economies are the biggest global risks this year and next, the World Economic Forum warned today.
The organisation’s Global Risks Report 2024, released ahead of its annual meeting of political and business elites in Davos next week, also warns of the threats posed by climate change, the cost-of-living crisis and war.
“Misinformation and disinformation are the biggest short-term risks, while extreme weather and critical change to Earth systems are the greatest long-term concern,” the report said.
“Concerns over a persistent cost-of-living crisis and the intertwined risks of AI-driven misinformation and disinformation, and societal polarization dominated the risks outlook for 2024,” it added.
The World Economic Forum also noted that “with several live conflicts under way, underlying geopolitical tensions and corroding societal resilience risk are creating conflict contagion”.
The WEF survey, produced with Zurich Insurance Group and consulting firm Marsh McLennan, took into account the views of more than 1,400 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders surveyed in September.
The report said that “emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage misinformation and disinformation to further widen societal and political divides”.
The WEF has warned that “the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments”.
It noted that close to three billion people were expected to vote in national elections over the next 24 months, including in Ireland, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States.
There will also be EU Parliament elections in June.
In December, the EU passed the artificial intelligence act, which aims to ensure that AI systems placed on the European market and used in the EU are “safe and respect fundamental rights and EU values”.
It is feared that EU elections are uniquely vulnerable to attacks because the 27 EU-nations vote together.
An internal review from the European Parliament’s IT department that was viewed by POLITICO last month warned state-sponsored attacks on the Parliament have become more numerous and sophisticated since its last election in 2019.
Slovakia, one of the EU-27, has already had to grapple with an AI controversy in the run-up to an election.
In the days prior to the Slovakia general election on 30 September, 2023, an AI-generated audio recording of Michal Šimečka, leader of the liberal Progressive Slovakia party, appeared in which he proposed doubling the price of beer if he won the election.
Here at home, Fianna Fáil senators have said that AI manipulations have “turbocharged” the disinformation threat to elections.
“One of our biggest concerns is around the potential impact of the misuse of AI through misinformation, disinformation, and particularly deepfakes on elections and referenda,” said Senator Malcolm Byrne.
Speaking to reporters in November, Byrne further hypothesised that a deepfake of an Irish political leader saying something controversial could emerge during upcoming elections.
He added: “The difficulty is once a video comes out and they’re sufficiently believable, it can be shared on social media thousands of times, and even when the denial is then published, you will still have people who will say: ‘Oh well, look, you know, this wasn’t a deepfake, this was really what he or she actually believed’.
“And you can imagine, you know, the crucial days before an election or indeed in a referendum, how something like that could have an impact,” said Byrne.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Middle East leaders will attend the Davos talks, which will be dominated by the Israel-Hamas war as well as the Ukraine conflict.
Argentina’s libertarian new president, Javier Milei, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also be among the headliners at the 15-19 January meeting in the Swiss Alps.
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