sea change

More than 100 UK constituencies that voted Leave would now vote Remain - study

The study, compiled on behalf of two pro-Remain groups, suggests that disillusioned Labour voters are the key cohort which has changed its mind.

Battle of Amiens anniversary Theresa May Yui Mok / PA Images Yui Mok / PA Images / PA Images

A NEW ANALYSIS of Brexit polling suggests that a huge amount of UK constituencies that voted to leave the EU would now vote differently.

The study of Brexit polls, conducted by consumer analysts Focaldata and seen by the Observer newspaper, concludes that as many as 112 constituencies that voted to exit the bloc would now reverse that vote.

Focaldata’s  study was jointly commissioned by Best for Britain, an entity campaigning against Brexit, and Hope not Hate, an anti-racism group.

The chief cohort of voters who have changed their mind are Labour supporters who voted against the EU but who now harbour significant doubts as to how the situation is being handled, according to the analysis.

Two of those 100 constituencies belong to Conservative MPs Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, two of the chief architects of the Leave vote.

It means that a majority of British constituencies would now vote to Remain were such a referendum to be held.


Focaldata compiled the analysis by breaking down two separate YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people conducted both before and after UK prime minister Theresa May published her proposed Brexit negotiating stance last month.

That proposal eventually led to the resignation of many of her cabinet colleagues, including that of Johnson himself as foreign secretary.

The study shows that of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales investigated by Focaldata, 112 have switched their allegiances. 97 of those that switched are English, with 14 in Wales.

Overall the model matches a YouGov poll released on the same subject last week, with Remain emerging victorious in any prospective repeat referendum by a margin of 53% to 47%.

The poll suggests turbulent times ahead for May as she attempts to get her own shaky government to align coherently for the coming negotiations.

Lasw week her trade secretary Liam Fox suggested that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit now stands at 60%:40%.

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