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Unemployment rate should fall to 10 per cent of labour force in 2015, predicts ESRI

The ESRI forecast that the government borrowing in 2015 is likely to come in below the target of 3 per cent of GDP.

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THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE should be down to an average of ten per cent of the labour force in 2015, predicts the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

In their latest quarterly report, they said that economic growth is expected to remain strong for 2014 and 2015 and that GNP of over 3.5 per cent is forecast for both years.

As a result of growth in output and employment, they said there will be a further fall in unemployment next year.


The ESRI added that there were also signs of growth in private investment and if this trend continues, it will contribute to further growth.

The Quarterly Economic Commentary for Spring 2014 was carried out by David Duffy, John FitzGerald, Kevin Timoney and David Byrne of the ESRI.

They forecast that government borrowing in 2015 is likely to come in below the target of 3 per cent of GDP, even without the substantial further cuts envisaged for the 2015 Budget.

However, they said that it was still “best to err on the side of caution” as there still remains the possibility of new shocks to the economy.

“After a long period of attrition, we are approaching the end of the very painful period of fiscal adjustment,” the concluded.

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