FIANNA FÁIL ‘IS ready for battle’.
That was the message from a number of Fianna Fáilers heading into the party’s Ard Fheis in Dublin this weekend.
There has been a definite shift in the mood of the party’s TDs and senators over the last year.
There is more optimism heading into the local and European elections next year, with those in the party stating that they are much better prepared than last time around.
There’s also a lot of talk about when the next general election will be, with predictions it could be Autumn 2024.
With that prospect on the cards, Fianna Fáil is facing into some big questions.
What does the future hold for Micheál Martin?
One of the great questions facing the party right now is about Micheál Martin and his future?
Cavan-Monaghan TD Niamh Smyth told The Journal that she is concerned about “the gulf that has been consistently wide between the leadership and the parliamentary party”.
Smyth said she is anxious to see how this will be addressed and said it needs to be done “urgently” ahead of the next general election.
“There’s no point talking about that when the election is over and really good, talented and hardworking people have lost their seats because the issue hasn’t been dealt with,” she said.
“The leadership has had plenty of warning in terms of the polls,” she added.
Over the last year there has been a lot of chatter in the party about how Martin had his sights set on Europe.
The predictions were that he was off to Brussels as Ireland’s next European commissioner when the vacancy arises in the summer.
However, that seems a lot less likely now.
“He seems to have gotten his mojo going again,” said one politician, who added Martin is “active and out there”.
By all accounts, Martin is “absolutely adamant” that he is going to lead the party into the next general election.
“I’m taking that at face value. I think he probably will lead to the next election. I don’t see any move to change that, considering that the next election is going to be in 12 to 18 month, he seems fairly solid and set to kind of continue on,” said this member of the Oireachtas.
Just over a year ago, it seemed the knives were out for Martin.
In summer 2022, a number of backbench Fianna Fáil TDs reacted angrily to comments made by Martin in Japan where he appeared to shrug off their concerns about the party by stating that voters will not thank them for “navel-gazing” during a cost-of-living crisis.
Around that time, a number of politicians had spoken out publicly about Martin’s leadership and the direction of the party.
John McGuinness, TD for Carlow-Kilkenny, said Martin should resign as party leader, while others in the parliamentary party said they were becoming “anxious” about how close it is to Fine Gael. Dublin South-West TD John Lahart also said he didn’t see Martin leading the party into the next general election.
So, has the tide changed? Is the party happy with Martin’s leadership right now heading into this weekend’s Ard Fheis?
“I think they are. There was definitely a lot of unease going back about a year and a half ago and a lot of disquiet in the ranks but it seems to have just stabilised and steadied itself,” said one Fianna Fáil member.
“It is very much like, ‘we are on an election footing now, we know for definite we have local and European elections next year and a general election soon thereafter’. I think people are getting focused on their constituencies and are in election mode.
There’s no big appetite for a big upheaval.
As one Fianna Fáil backbencher said, there isn’t any alternative at the moment anyway and Martin’s leadership is strong.
The backbencher also said that they have noticed support on the doors from people who wouldn’t normally support Fianna Fáil while out canvassing and that this seems to be because of general goodwill towards Martin.
“I would often have voters say things to me like ‘He’s the first Fianna Fáil leader that I really respect’.
“The question will be, come the election, will they vote for Fianna Fáil or will they vote for Fine Gael and have great respect for Micheál?,” they said.
The backbencher added that this goodwill seems to be standard across the party and said their sense is that most in the parliamentary party will be happy for him to lead the next election.
This was a view shared by another Fianna Fáil Oireachtas member, who said Micheál Martin’s stint as Taoiseach has helped shore up support for his continued leadership and that talk of replacing him has largely died down.
This they say, is partly because there is no clear successor.
One backbench TD said they are concerned about where Fianna Fáil are in the polls, particularly the difference that exists between support for Micheál Martin and support for the party.
It was this TD’s view that a new leader is needed to lead the party into the next and that this should be decided through an open contest.
Who will be the next leader?
On who will be the next leader, one backbencher said there is no clear front-runner but that many Fianna Fáil TDs have had the opportunity in recent years to gain valuable experience that could translate into solid leadership.
They did say however that there is a question in the party about ‘who is the emergent figure?’ but that it will probably come from the ministerial benches.
It was put to them that Micheal McGrath’s name is one often cited when the question of leadership comes up.
“Micheal McGrath is a really strong pair of hands at the finance wheel, and I think the economic argument will probably be a big offering from Fianna Fáil ahead of the next election,” they said.
Another backbencher said that while Micheal McGrath is indeed strong, the fact he is from the same constituency as Martin is a negative factor.
If Martin doesn’t go to Europe, the commissioner job will need to be filled, and it is within the gift of Fianna Fáil to pick the next commissioner, with some saying that McGrath is the obvious choice.
However, others think if he takes the job, the party will lose a strong card going into the next election.
Dublin West TD and junior minister Jack Chambers was also put forward as a preferred next leader, with one politician stating that there is more support for Jack Chamber than one would imagine.
“It’s time to go to the next generation,” the Oireachtas member said.
On Chambers, the member said he is very capable and “exceptionally good at mixing with people”.
They also pointed out that he has a “great understanding” of rural Ireland as well as urban Ireland.
Would the party go into government with Sinn Féin?
The other big question that Fianna Fáil is yet to grapple with is Sinn Féin.
If push comes to shove, and the numbers after the next general election leave no alternative, will Fianna Fáil be open to going into coalition with Sinn Féin?
Most TDs The Journal spoke to said Sinn Féin would be mentioned at this weekend’s Ard Fheis, in terms of the need to tackle and monitor their policies and record, but most said there would be no significant discussion about them.
The focus this weekend is more about looking at Fianna Fáil achievements in government and what can be achieved in the time left, rather than what to do in the hypothetical situation that Martin and Mary Lou McDonald might govern together one day.
In recent months there has been a lot of commentary about the possibility of a Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil government – with some stating that such a prospect would divide the Fianna Fáil party.
There has also been comments made that Martin is softening his stance on whether his party could do business with McDonald’s party and that out of his sense of duty, Martin might be minded to go into coalition, if such an opportunity arose, despite it being somewhat repugnant to him.
The politicians The Journal spoke to agreed that there is an element of that.
“He is certainly driven by a deep sense of public service. He’s kind of an old school politician in the way he approaches the work and the job. He could absolutely exit stage left, he has achieved everything and move on to a different role, but I don’t think that is what’s motivating him,” said one politician, who added that there is an element of genuine concern within the party about what Sinn Féin will do when in government.
The views of party members on a possible Fianna Fáil/ Sinn Féin seem to differ quite substantially.
One backbencher said the party is pragmatic about the possibility, but that it would be preferable for most in the party if the existing coalition with Fine Gael and the Greens was renewed.
Speaking about Sinn Féin they said: “I don’t know whether we could work with them, and if we did work with them, we would always be getting shafted. There would always be an angle spun in the background.
“That’s a big issue for a lot of backbench TDs and I would say ministers who have been shouted at for the last five years are probably more in that position.”
Another member said it was a red line issue for them and they would resign from the party if such a coalition was formed.
The member said this wasn’t due to differences in policy, but instead based on legacy issues.
“I know too much about them,” the member said.
On whether this was a view widely held in the parliamentary party they said: “not as widely as I would like it to be.”
What are the big challenges ahead?
A recurrent theme brought up by Fianna Fáil parliamentary members ahead of the next election is the need for the party to get it’s messaging right.
The sense is that it may do well to lean into a “steady pair of hands” type campaign, particularly on economic matters to counter Sinn Féin’s strong message of change.
One TD said that, in their view, the party will need to make sure it fully implements the learnings from the Fleming Report on the failings of the party at the last election.
Authored by TD Seán Fleming, the internal report blamed a lack of clear identity for the party’s poor electoral performance in 2020.
This was something the backbencher said would be difficult this time around too. They said that Fianna Fáil will need to really drive home a “safe pair of hands” message to contrast Sinn Féin’s message of change.
Over two years ago, Fianna Fáilers believed that if the government did not make a big dent in the housing crisis and ramp up delivery, the party would be facing extinction in the next election.
Ahead of today’s Ard Fheis, they still believe that.
Housing will dominate the debate in all upcoming elections.
Those in the party feel health will be the next priority, while also stating that for the first time ever, they believe migration and refugees will be a “central issue” in the upcoming June local elections.
The view among most is that the party will “hold their own” in the local elections, though there is an acknowledgement there might be a small drop in the number of seats taken.
When will the next election be?
Some are calling it for Autumn 2024, while others predict this government will go the full term.
“I think there is a lot of unfinished business,” said one TD, who predicted that this three-part coalition will not be returned and all parties want a much time as possible to deliver on their promise before facing the electorate.
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