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The poll suggests it's all to play for.
state of the race

Opinion poll: Just four points between three parties as FF tops, FG drops and SF climbs

The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll surveyed voters last week as the election was called.

A NEW OPINION poll has just four percentage points between the three largest political parties ahead of the 8 February general election. 

The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll was published this evening and puts Fianna Fáil on support of 25%, Fine Gael at 23% and Sinn Féin at 21%. 

The previous poll in the same series was published over three months ago and today’s poll shows a decline in support of 6 percentage points for Fine Gael since then. 

By contrast, Fianna Fáil has remained the same while Sinn Féin has climbed by 7 percentage points. 

The state of the parties – when undecided voters are excluded – is:

  • Fianna Fáil – 25% (no change)
  • Fine Gael – 23% (down six)
  • Sinn Féin – 21% (up seven)
  • Labour – 5% (down one)
  • Independents/others – 18% (no change)
  • Green Party – 8% (no change)
  • Solidarity-PBP – 2% (up one)
  • Social Democrats 2% (up one) 

The drop in support for Fine Gael is mirrored by a sharp decline in satisfaction with the government which has fallen from 42% in October to 27% now.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s personal satisfaction rating has fallen from 51% to 35%. 

The poll is based on a survey of 1,2000 eligible voters and was taken last week after the general election was called. 

It contrasts with a separate opinion poll published on Sunday by the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes which gave Fianna Fáil a 12-point lead ahead.

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