CANADA’S PROVINCE OF Alberta is projected to comfortably reject a plan for a binding independence referendum, according to media forecasts, in an early setback for separatists backed by allies of US President Donald Trump.

Public broadcaster CBC projected a victory for the federalist side, with official results showing more than 76 percent support for national unity after roughly a third of ballots had been counted.

Public broadcaster CBC projected a victory for the federalist side, with official results showing more than 76 percent support for national unity, with at least a third of the votes counted.

Prime Minister Mark Carney argued the vote had been held “at the worst possible time,” citing the need for national stability as Trump wages a trade war and levels annexation threats.

A sombre mood took over the restaurant in the provincial capital Edmonton where a leading separatist group watched the returns.

The vote is projected to largely reject the proposal of separation. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Jeffrey Rath, a top leader of the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, told reporters his push for an independent Alberta will “absolutely” continue, despite the result from Monday’s vote.

“We’ve learned a lot of lessons from this fight,” he said.

At the federalist election night party in Edmonton before the results were announced, a band warmed up ahead of an anticipated positive result.

“It was amazing to see the enthusiasm and resolve among Canadians,” said Thomas Lukaszuk, who heads Forever Canadian, the group that campaigned across the province for national unity.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative, said she voted against independence but called the referendum to settle an issue that has divided the province.

She has said a federalists win would close the secession question.

Foreign influence?

Alberta has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and much of the separatist momentum has been driven by anger over oil industry management.

Smith has blamed Carney’s predecessor Justin Trudeau for igniting the separatist fire, accusing him of trying to crush oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.

Alberta’s independence push has also drawn sustained interest from Trump allies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a “natural partner” for the United States. Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and a top Trump supporter, posted on X this month that Alberta “should separate.”

Separatist leaders also held meetings at the US State Department and received advice from Republican political operatives.

‘Huge uncertainty’

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked to improve relations between the province and Ottawa since taking office last year.

He has partnered with Smith on advancing a new pipeline to export more Alberta bitumen overseas, a project considered a nonstarter during Trudeau’s tenure.
Alberta Prosperty Project leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP earlier Monday that had Carney “threatened” the province in the closing days of the campaign.

Carney’s message was “voting against Canada is dangerous,” Sylvestre said, calling that “very unreasonable.”

Haley Erdegard, a 44-year-old who voted in Edmonton, voiced discomfort with the idea advanced by some separatists that Alberta is forced to share too much of its oil revenue with the rest of Canada.

“I think we probably need to put some more work towards cooperation before making rash decisions about trying to start our own country,” she told AFP.

Prime Minister Mark Carney argued the vote had been held “at the worst possible time,”