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AN EXIT POLL following the European and local elections yesterday highlights how Fianna Fáil continues to have trouble attracting younger voters.
The Red C poll for RTÉ and TG4 throws up some interesting figures, indicating a trend away from what has traditionally been Ireland’s largest political party.
The poll of just over 3,000 people is subject to a wide range of potential sources of error but the data follows previous election results and anecdotal analysis that Fianna Fáil is failing with teenaged adults and those in their 20s.
According to the poll, just 14% of those aged 18 to 24 gave their first preferences to Fianna Fáil candidates. That compares to Fine Gael’s 23% share and the Green Party’s 17%. Sinn Féin is also one percentage point ahead on 15%.
The figures for individual candidates in the European elections make for even starker reading for party leader Micheál Martin.
Although the sample sizes are small and should only be taken as indications, there is a trend of support for Fianna Fáil candidates falling by age category.
In Midlands North West, Brendan Smith is seen to enjoy a 12% share of the over-65 vote, but this falls to 3-6% for those aged between 25 and 64. Of the 18- to 24-year-olds sampled, 0% gave him a first preference.
Smith has been a TD for Cavan-Monaghan since 1992. He served as Minister for Agriculture between 2008 and 2011 and Minister for Justice for a brief time in 2011. In TheJournal.ie‘s audit of European candidates, he said his priority was to “secure Brexit mitigation measures for all sectors of the economy”.
Similarly in Dublin, Barry Andrews received 20% of the over-65 vote, according to the exit poll. This fell to 13% for 55-64-year-olds and between 10% and 11% for 35-54 year-olds. His share of votes slides into the single figures as the age categories get younger. He sees just 7% of first preferences from 25-34 year olds and only 2% of those aged under 24.
Andrews, a former CEO of the charity Goal and the current director-general of the Institute of International and European Affairs, is 52 years old. One of main tenets of his campaign was to create a Dublin Office in Brussels what would “seek out funding opportunities for urban projects and to monitor the impact of EU initiatives on the capital”.
Billy Kelleher, a TD for Cork North-Central is looking set to become an MEP for Ireland South, moves from 15% support in the over-65 category to 9% of 18-24 year-olds and 7% of 25-34 year-olds.
Kelleher, 51, was the party’s spokesperson for health and was pro-repeal ahead of the referendum on the Eighth Amendment after sitting on the Oireachtas health committee.
Bucking the trend slightly is Malcolm Byrne of Wexford, who maintained a 10% share of the youth vote, up from the 7-9% support he received from 25 to 54 year-olds.
Byrne, 45, has been a councillor in Wexford since 2009.
The Red C questionnaire also asked respondents – who were asked to participate outside polling stations after voting yesterday – about their general election preferences. Asked which party they would vote for if there was a vote tomorrow, 24% of 18 to 24 year-olds said Fine Gael, while 21% said the Green Party.
Fianna Fáil enjoys just 15% support in that category, compared to 33% of over 65s.
As turnout for local and European elections is usually much lower than for general elections and voter motivation varies, the exit poll isn’t a perfect predictor of general election results, but the trends will still make worrying reading for Fianna Fáil’s next director of elections.
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Good
@ObsidianShine: Going to take a couple more decades to see real change in the country…the masses have been lead and said by national media over the years….the young are getting their news from different sources thank christ
Less sheep, fantastic to see young people who think for themselves.
They’re in serious decline, they need serious reform, people are sick of their gombeen politics, the only thing martin has done in his career in politics is he’s made himself a multimillionaire, who stuck on when the rest left because he thought he’s get the glory of being taoiseach some day.
@Adrian: I’m the opposite of a fan or supporter of Fianna Fáil and Mícheál Martin and I think he’s been a pathetic leader for them. But in fairness he has been instrumental in one good change in modern Ireland and that was the smoking ban.
@ObsidianShine: i think that was a case of him being in the right place at the right time.
@Adrian:
How has he made himself a multi millionaire?
@Adrian: could say that about many politicians. Not a fan of FF or MM but no doubt the smoking ban is positive.
I’m 27, like many disgusted at what FF done to our country. I’ll be slow to vote for them but would never say never.
Great result for the Greens based on the exit polls. One of the more progressive thinkers in this country. We as the electorate need to take certain responsibly and elect more socially responsible candidates, who ideally are backed my strong economic policies.
Wishful thinking maybe….
@Adrian: I’d say you’re probably right there, I’d be surprised if it was actually his idea originally. All I know is that Fianna Fáil will never see a vote from me again.
@ObsidianShine: 7 inspectors for the whole country? The smoking ban worked because people wanted it to work., no credit to Michael Martin’s vision. He got lucky.
@Adrian: I’d agree. Same as spoodadkar with abortion and gay marriage. Right place right time …
@Shane Murphy: So if people believe policies are bad/negative we blame the politicians and if a policy proves to be good/positive we say they were in the right place at the right time and shouldn’t get any credit.
I don’t think any significant numbers will vote for the greens in a real election.
It’s nice to give them a vote when it doesn’t matter. Like giving a charity a fiver – makes you feel good but that’s about it.
Commentators love pretending we are on the chaps of some seismic change but if they go into a general election talking about carbon tax this and restricting cars that they will get the usual level of support.
@thephantomshit: news flash pal carbon taxes are coming in with or without them have you not be listening to the news lately
They destroyed this country
@Fran O’Keeffe: see that’s the thing isn’t it. Martin was a cabinet member of the government who sold us out- and rightly or wrongly he will be tarred with that brush. Until FF gets another leader who wasn’t part of the financial crash, they will always be struggling
14% is STILL too much. Shows massive ignorance about this criminal gang’s history. The only place FF should occupy is a skip.
Very good news
Always remeber that Fianna Fáil are only one fada away from FAIL…
@Grand: …..and you were one letter away from a real sentence…..
@TheTrustedChalice: Yeah I realized after I had left the comment, this doesn’t allow editing!
@TheTrustedChalice: h
@TheTrustedChalice: he is right though
It would be pretty obvious to anyone with a brain that nobody under 35 is ever going to vote for this shower. Looked after the here and now during the tiger and left nothing for the next generation.
@Eoin Scanlon:
Although given the comments here in opposition to carbon tax and other green measures, that’s exactly what many are advocating now.
Looking at the coverage on RTE, the FF guy in studio, calleary, just said so far so good. In truth, their in trouble, but to him, they’re doing swimmingly well! Heads in the clouds stuff!
RTE and FFG. Great pals! To the unbiased, its bad for FF, but RTE taking the position of protecting FF in particular in this case, from humiliation.
Chuckle :-)
@Willy: Guffaw :-)
@Football in the Groin: Giggle :-)
Fianna Fail are going nowhere until they change leader.
@Pat Twomey: Do you honestly think they will make a hot of difference to the rotten corrupt strokes they have pulled over the last 50 years….what do they have to do to you people to take maybe its not such a good idea to vote for them seen as they bankrupted us 3 times through filthy corruption
@Pat Twomey: yes. They havnt a hope as long as M.M. is hanging around the place like a carton of milk that is a week past its ” use by”date.
Lisa Chambers was responsible for FF strategy for this election.
Both the main parties are totally disconnected from the needs and feeling of the vast majority of the populous. “Carry on tax away they will moan but are too afraid of change” is the mantra they follow and for the most part they are unfortunately correct.
Fianna Fáil died when Dev died.
@Ciarán McGrath: Dev should have died in 1922 then we wouldn’t have been ruled by Rome for so long
Brilliant news. Well done everyone
It will be comedy gold to watch the FF slapstick chameleons pretending to care about environmental issues after the green surge in an effort to attract some of that vote..pure comedy gold
FINA WHO?
The party that lobbed 42% of European death on to paddy’s shoulders. Good man Michael. Abandoning the headline reads…!! They should be disbanded and a lot of them should be behind bars.
@Colum Cusack:
Which European deaths are you referring to ?
Seems to me Fianna Gael And Fianna Fáil should ditch their Cival War politics and come together.This bloody Election was a pure joke.Take the Lord Mayors vote down here in Cork.All we were told about it was He or She would earn 130k a year plus expenses over five years.People refused election papers because they were told nothing else except the great things it would bring.Little wonder it has been blown out by the voters.
Thank you! We might actually be set free! Well it a a good start……?
Hardly surprising since that clown is still at the wheel. One of the mob that drove this country into the ground
FF basically opposed repeal the 8th and marriage ref, locally in Kilkenny they were on the radio opposing both. Yet the party was supposed to support them..
FF is out of touch with modern Ireland
Insert populist comment here
All probably sick of the legacy of working hours for free plus the paralysed dinosaur at the helm wont help in change
NEVER FORGET
Ha
To me represent all the worst aspects of socially conservative rural Ireland and gombeenism. Then only supported the marriage equality and repeal referendum when they say which way the wind was blowing.
People like to see a leader with backbone, a person who has principals above everything even his own Party. Instead we have a spineless character who huffs and puffs at FG while keeping them in power. What a weak self-serving character.
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