THIS WEEK LAST YEAR The Journal hit the streets in Dublin Central to ask voters what they made of gangland figure Gerry Hutch running in the general election.

Little did we know that we would be doing the same thing again almost exactly one year later.

With the news earlier this week that Paschal Donohoe is giving up his Dáil seat to take up a position with the World Bank in the US, a by-election has been triggered in perhaps the most interesting constituency in the country.

And the question everyone is waiting to have answered is whether Hutch will be appearing on his scooter again to lodge his election papers.

The election must be held within six months of a Dáil vacancy arising, so the Dublin Central by-election will likely be held in April or May next year at the same time as voters in Galway West go to the polls to fill Catherine Connolly’s seat.

At this stage, it is pure speculation whether Hutch will run again or not, but posts from his official Instagram account have been very much hinting in the past few days that he will.

Now, a big pinch of salt is needed with those posts, given that Hutch raffled off the use of the account after last year’s general election. It’s not clear who currently runs it.

That said, a post purporting to be written by Hutch himself, posted earlier this week, read: “I’ve been spending a lot of time lately listening, learning and connecting with people across our community. I’m grateful for all the support and encouragement along the way. I’ll be able to share more updates soon, and I appreciate everyone who’s been with me on the journey.”

An earlier post by the same account showed what appears to be an AI-generated image of Dublin’s Five Lamps with the text: “The People’s Choice’ written over it.

Hutch came much closer to winning a seat in last year’s general election than many expected, narrowly missing out on the final seat to Labour’s Marie Sherlock in a nail-biter of a final count.

His appearance at Dublin’s RDS shortly before Sherlock was announced as the winner brought chaos to the count centre.

Paying his respects to Sherlock, Hutch refused to answer most questions shot at him by members of the media. As he jogged away from the venue though, he didn’t rule out a future electoral run.

At this point, it is too early to say what just might happen in Dublin Central, but at The Journal, we were curious about Hutch’s chances if he were to run again.

So once again, we hit the streets in Dublin Central to see what people in the area were thinking.

Five lamps in the north inner city

First, though, we caught up with Ireland Thinks pollster, Kevin Cunningham, to get his view.

Cunningham made the point that by-elections are more challenging to win because the candidate who takes the seat needs to end up on 50% of the vote after transfers on the first count.

This compares to 20% to get over the line in a four-seat constituency like Dublin Central in a general election.

“In Dublin Central, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael get about a quarter of the vote, and the combined left that backed Catherine Connolly would get about half of the vote. On that basis, you’d expect the winner to come from the left, with Sinn Féin typically the strongest,” Cunningham said.

He continued: “However, in a by-election the candidate themselves becomes much more important. Think of Paul Murphy’s 27% in Dublin South West in 2014, or Ivana Bacik’s 30% in Dublin Bay South in 2021. Both vastly exceeded the vote shares that they had in subsequent elections, in no small part due to their personal brand and the prominence of their candidacy.”

Cunningham also noted that the political environment is currently much more febrile than it was at the 2024 general election.

“When the by-election takes place, it might be better, but I wouldn’t bet against the political environment becoming even more febrile than it is today. Indeed, it is the general pattern that government support bows as we get towards the middle of their term,” he explained.

All in, this means that candidates like Hutch, who already have a big personal brand and attract voters who wouldn’t normally vote, may do well, but will still struggle to get to the 50% mark that would be required to take the seat.

Cunningham also noted that Hutch did not do well from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael transfers last time around, something he would need.

That said, out on the ground, there was still vocal support for Hutch.

Standing beside the Five Lamps, The Journal caught up briefly with a number of people in the area. Many of them said they would vote for Hutch, describing him as “one of us”.

Emma, a 22-year-old animal science student from the North Inner City, said she will vote in the upcoming by-election, but she will wait until closer to the time to decide who to support.

She told The Journal that she believes Hutch would do well if he were to run again.

“He’s from the area, a lot of people who run aren’t and don’t come from the same background,” she said, adding that the current government has the country “in ruins”.

Asked about the big issues facing the constituency, Emma said one of the core issues for her and her peers is that they can’t move out from home because of the housing crisis.

“None of us can move out. We’re all struggling going into college, trying to work part-time, trying to save. It’s not really possible. None of us, I don’t think, are ever going to get to live in Dublin or Ireland in general. I think we are all going to have to move away. It’s shit, you know?,” she said.

Asked where she plans to go after college, Emma said: “Anywhere but here.”

A middle-aged lady, Liz Benson, said she would like to see Hutch run again.

“He’s one of our own and I’d think he’d do very well,” she said, but added:

“It’s all the one, no matter who gets in. They’re all for their own pocket.”

Asked what she sees as the big issues facing the locality, Benson said healthcare.

She became upset as she explained how her one-year-old granddaughter, who has scoliosis, has to travel back and forth to the US for treatment.

Benson said she has gone on marches for the late Harvey Sherratt, but that in her view, the government has not done enough for families of children with scoliosis.

“No matter who gets in, they won’t do anything,” she said.

Kirsten, a 24-year-old engineer who is originally from Finglas, is new to the constituency.

Asked about Hutch running, she said she personally wouldn’t vote for him, but that she can understand why people did.

“I think people just want change, they’re sick of seeing the same two parties in the area. And they saw him as a populist, someone who is different, someone who is local, who knows the area,” she said.

She added that people locally “feel like they’re in the city, but they’re forgotten about, that the south side is more looked after compared to the north side. So I get it.”

She added: “I don’t know if he will run again, personally. I feel like that was his one chance, and he didn’t get it. But if he runs again, fair enough. I’d say he probably will get a lot of the vote, but I do feel like after Catherine Connolly’s election, the left will be banding together quite strongly, not to run one candidate but to try to transfer as many votes as possible to get a left candidate in.”

Kirsten said she believes that what the area needs is someone who is actively involved locally.

For her, the big issue impacting her life is the housing crisis.

“I’m somebody who is on a very good wage. I’m somebody who has a lot of savings, but I’m somebody who can’t buy a house. I’m having to pay an extortionate amount of money to rent in the city just in order to be near to my workplace, my colleagues, my circle. And I feel like because I’m in my twenties that’s just expected,” she said.

“Most of my peers are moving outside of Dublin and it’s making me feel sad because I don’t want to do that, I want to stay here. This is my home. That’s something I’d like to see addressed.

“I know everyone and their mother talks about the housing crisis, but [for me it's] more so the local working person who has income, who is saving, who grew up here and wants to buy a house here and can’t keep up with bids going €20k, €30k, €40k above asking price. It’s insane.

“I love the city. I know people complain about it, I complain about it, but this is my home.

“I don’t want to move, this is where my community is,” Kirsten said.

The main sentiment that was shared across the board with people The Journal spoke to was one of disillusionment.

Joe, 73, from Ballybough, who didn’t want to give his full name, said he has “no time” for politicians.

“They’re all ‘we’ll do this, we’ll do that, we’ll do the other’ but once they get your vote, it’s goodbye.

Asked what he makes of the prospect of Gerry Hutch running again, Joe said Hutch “doesn’t bother him”.

“I don’t trust any of them,” Joe said, adding that he has given up hope on politicians.

He said he has discussed voting with his friends, but that they are all feeling disillusioned with the system. If he was going to vote, he said he would vote for Sinn Féin.

“Sinn Féin would be one of my favourites, but Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael? No.”

Asked what he thinks the biggest issues facing the area are, Joe said: “The biggest issue facing the area, I think, is too much bumming at shops, begging for money. And some of them have more money than I have.”

Meanwhile, Jason, 34, who also didn’t want to give his full name, said he would give Hutch his number one if he ran again, adding “please god” he does.

Asked what he thinks the big issues are locally, Jason said: “Do you really want to know?”

After this reporter said yes, Jason said: “Foreign people. I’ve nothing against them, but it’s not even Ireland any more.”

Notably, this area of the inner city is one where Irish flags are currently lining the streets, as part of the recent anti-immigrant campaign that took hold in September. Some proponents of the campaign have frequently claimed that there has been a rise in crime as a result of immigration, despite no evidence showing this. 

“We can’t even call it Ireland, we’re afraid to come out of our own homes. People are being stabbed,” Jason said, adding: “The government need to get up now and cop on. Hopefully, our new president now, she will do something for us but I don’t think that will happen either.”

Jason said he believes Hutch is “a great man”.

“He’s great for our community. He would actually change Ireland, he’d change the North Inner City.”

Over at the other side of the constituency in Phibsboro, voters were less enthused about the prospect of Hutch being on the ballot again.

Phibsboro's main street

Asked if she would like to see it, Maeve, a lady in her fifties, responded: “Oh Jesus, no.”

“It’s hard to get your head around. It’s a bit shocking, it’s almost funny, but it’s not,” Maeve said, reflecting on the significant vote share he got in last November’s general election.

Asked what issues she would like to see local politicians focus on, Maeve said “little feckers” on scooters, along with homelessness.

Maeve said she believes Paschal Donohoe will be a “big loss” for the area, describing him as a “steady hand” and a man who “got things done”.

James, 79, from Phibsboro, said he hasn’t given much thought yet to who might fill Donohoe’s seat, but that he is “appalled” by the prospect that Hutch might run again.

He put his significant vote share last time down to a protest vote.

Asked about the big issues facing the constituency, James said it was the “universal ones” of housing and law and order.

Like others, James was disillusioned but said that despite this, he always votes as he sees it as his civic duty.

“At my age now, I’ve seen a lot and I don’t put much faith in politicians. They promise a lot, but they don’t deliver,” James said as he walked away.