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THE FAT LADY may have warmed her vocal chords in Dublin on Saturday but as rugby’s greatest soap opera enters its final weekend, all of France, England and Ireland can still win this year’s Six Nations title.
There is even still a mathematical route to a Scottish championship triumph, albeit it would require a twist that would make M. Night Shyamalan blush.
Here’s how the title chase has shaped up for next Saturday.
Bonus-point victory: France will know exactly what they have to do by the time they kick off against Scotland at the Stade de France, with the final game of the championship set for at 8pm kick-off. But they know already that a bonus-point victory over the Scots will seal the title irrespective of what happens in the Italy-Ireland and Wales-England games beforehand. A four-try victory would take the French to an unassailable 21 points.
Victory without a bonus point: The reality is that four match points will also be enough for France to lift their second title in four years. They are currently a point ahead of England in the table but have a superior points difference by 86, meaning England can’t catch them in a tiebreak unless they rack up an actual cricket score against Wales in Cardiff.
Draw scenario: Because France’s points difference is 93 better than Ireland’s and 86 better than England’s, a draw with a four-try bonus point against Scotland would realistically be enough for Les Bleus to win the title if England failed to pick up a bonus point of their own in a victory over Wales.
And again, unless Ireland were to rack up tries in a 94-point win in Rome earlier in the day, France would finish ahead of them by picking up three match points against Scotland.
Wildcard scenario: If Ireland win in Rome without a four-try bonus point, England draw in Cardiff without a four-try bonus point, then France can lose to Scotland with two bonus points and still be crowned champions. That would make for quite the Saturday.
Bonus-point victory and French failure: England will win the title with 20 points if they beat Wales with a BP and France fail to beat Scotland in any context (even a draw with a BP would leave France on 19 points).
Victory without a bonus point: If England win without a BP and France pick up two points or fewer against Scotland, England can claim the title with 19 points — but they would also have to better Ireland’s points difference if Simon Easterby’s side picked up maximum match points in Rome. England’s points difference is currently only seven better than Ireland’s.
Wildcard scenario: If England lose with two BPs in Cardiff, they’ll win the championship if France don’t pick up anything against Scotland and if Ireland suffer any kind of defeat (or a non-BP draw) to Italy.
Bonus-point victory and hope for the best: Ireland will win the championship if they beat Italy with a BP and both France and England fail to win their matches (unless France draw with a BP against Scotland).
Victory without a bonus point and really, really hope for the best: If Ireland win without a BP and both France and England lose, Ireland can still take the title with 18 points — but they would need France to take one match point or fewer in defeat to Scotland.
Wildcard scenario: If Simon Easterby’s side draw with a four-try BP in Rome, they’ll win the title if England lose with only one bonus point and if France pick up nothing against the Scots.
The wildest of wildcard scenarios: If Ireland pick up two points or fewer in Rome, and if England then pick up one point or fewer in Cardiff, and if Scotland then earn a bonus-point victory by a margin of 52 points at the Stade de France (while also denying France a BP), Scotland will win the title on points difference.
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