EMPLOYMENT IN IRELAND is set to grow over the next two years, but will be lower than last year, the Department of Finance has said. 

In a forecast published today, the Department also said there could be 25,000 fewer jobs created over the next two years if Trump’s 10% tariffs remain in place. 

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said today that this is in line with previous forecasts that between 50,000 and 80,000 fewer jobs would be created over a five-year period as a result of the tariffs.

Each year, the Government must submit an economic progress report to the European Union.

Usually, each EU member state submits a forecast for the next five years but because of the economic uncertainty resulting from the US tariffs, Ireland has submitted a two-year forecast only.

Department of Finance officials understand a small number of member states have chosen not to submit any forecast at all as a result of the uncertainty.

Speaking at a press conference for the forecast today, Donohoe said: “This report makes clear throughout it, we are at a time of immense uncertainty, and we have many different scenarios that we have to contemplate regarding what the global economy could look like in the years ahead and what that could mean for Ireland.”

Donohoe said we are in a place of “very strong performance” in terms of the number of jobs within the economy and the health of the labour market.

“The tax revenues that are created by the health of our labour market continue to be the anchor for how our public finances are performing and give us confidence about our ability to navigate through the different challenges that the economy may face in the years that await,” he said. 

In its forecast published today, the Department said if the US tariffs continue at a rate of 10% this would reduce Gross Domestic Product (a measure of economic growth which includes multinationals) by 1.5 percentage points next year. 

Under the same scenario, growth in the domestic economy would be down 1 percentage point and growth in employment would be 0.5 percentage points lower (equating to approximately 25,000 fewer jobs than a situation with no tariffs).

Without tariffs, the Department has forecast that Irish GDP will grow by 4.1% and the domestic economy will grow by 2.5%. 

Next year’s GDP growth is forecast to be 3.4% while domestic growth is forecast at 2.8% without tariffs.

The Government expects a general surplus of €8.7 billion for 2025 and €6.3 billion for 2026. However, these estimates are based on a scenario where there is no reversal of corporation tax receipts. 

In its forecast, the Department of Finance has said such a reversal remains a major risk to future forecasts.