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KEIR STARMER’S FUTURE as UK Prime Minister and Labour leader is hanging in the balance as he faces mounting calls to resign from his own party.
Despite taking responsibility for last week’s disastrous local election results and promising to prove his doubters wrong in a speech on Monday, some 80 Labour MPs have openly called for him to go.
British home secretary Shabana Mahmood has reportedly privately called for an orderly transition of power while other ministers are also said to have spoken to him about his future.
But some in the party have urged those calling for Starmer to step down to reconsider their positions and avoid the possibility of a leadership contest turning into infighting amid the rising cost of living and the war in Iran.
Those waiting in the wings to replace Starmer as UK Prime Minister have been there for some time.
However, a leadership challenge from any of them would come with risks for different reasons, and none are considered a natural successor to Starmer.
The Greater Manchester mayor and so-called ‘King of the North’ has been hinting at a leadership challenge against Starmer for months now, and many in Labour are backing him to take the top job.
Burnham, who served as health secretary in Gordon Brown’s government, has been a high-profile voice for people in the northwest of England and is the most popular Labour figure among the British public, according to recent polling.
Last autumn, he refused to rule out a leadership bid and said MPs had been privately urging him to challenge Starmer.
But there’s a problem: while he might be seen as the strongest contender, he’s not a sitting MP.
Earlier this year, he was blocked by Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) from standing in the Gorton and Denton byelection after the previous MP Andrew Gwynne stood down.
The NEC, which included Starmer, put it down to worries about the costs of running a new Manchester mayoral election and fear that Reform could take the mayoralty.
There have been reports that a sitting Labour MP is willing to stand down to make way for him to return to the House of Commons. But he would still have to stand in a byelection, and after last week’s results for Labour, there’s no guarantee that Burnham would definitely win the seat.
The former deputy prime minister is also said to have been on manoeuvres since last year, with several reports that she has discussed a leadership bid with MPs and even offered allies positions in her would-be cabinet.
Rayner, a left-leaning trade unionist, is another figure that is popular with the grassroots members of the party. Yesterday, she criticised the decision to block Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton byelection, saying Starmer needed to “meet the moment” with bolder actions to help working people.
The difficulty for the Ashton-under-Lyne MP is that she stepped down last year after admitting that she did not pay enough stamp duty on a second home.
She was reported to have saved £40,000 (€46,000) in stamp duty on the flat because she removed her name from the deeds of a family property in her constituency, meaning the Hove property is the only property she owns.
With a HMRC inquiry into her tax affairs still hanging over her, it makes it difficult – but not impossible – for her to throw her hat in the ring.
The health secretary has made little secret of his desire to succeed Starmer as prime minister and is said to have organised a campaign of supporters to back him if he declares.
Streeting, who is on the right of the party, is a strong media performer and has allies within the party.
But his former friendships with Peter Mandelson and Starmer’s former adviser Morgan McSweeney would be seen as marks against him, and there are said to be some within Labour that will seek to prevent him from becoming leader.
Last November, he was accused of openly plotting against Starmer – something he denied at the time.
With his popularity coming up short against Burnham and Rayner with party membership, if Streeting does have leadership ambitions, he will need to declare sooner rather than later.
The energy secretary and former Labour leader is understood to have privately told Starmer to consider setting out a timeline for his resignation in the wake of the party’s election results last week.
Miliband is seen as an outside bet to take the reins. But it is thought that if a contest to replace Starmer happens before Andy Burnham has a chance to win a byelection, he would be a safe pair of hands to take over as a caretaker.
Though popular with party members, the main check he has against him is that he has already been rejected once before.
He resigned in 2015 after David Cameron’s Conservatives won the general election, and those in Labour are said to be fearful of how he would do up against Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
But he did beat Andy Burnham in a leadership contest all the way back in 2010. Could he do it again?
Few people had even heard of Catherine West before last weekend, when she publicly called on Labour MPs to mount a leadership contest against Starmer or else she would run herself.
But she has since rolled back on that declaration. After the prime minister’s make-or-break speech, West said she would not run herself but was collecting signatures from MPs who would support removing him before September.
If all else fails, though, she may still be willing to back herself to oust the man who sacked her as a Foreign Office minister last year.
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