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TAOISEACH LEO VARADKAR has told a conference in Dublin that a border poll would “probably be defeated” if one were held now and that this would present a problem for those in favour of unification.
Varadkar, who described himself as someone who would like to see a United Ireland, said in places like Australia and Quebec where constitutional votes were defeated it relegated the issues down the national agenda.
“I think the difficulty with a border poll is I think it would certainly be divisive in Northern Ireland but it would also probably be defeated in Northern Ireland,” he said.
Varadkar said he wanted to preface his remarks by stating that his desire to to a United Ireland “should not be seen as radical” because the Irish Constitution also contains an aspiration for unity.
Varadkar was speaking to BBC Newsline presenter Tara Mills at the European Broadcasting Union’s News Xchange conference in the Convention Centre Dublin.
Varadkar told the audience that he did not believe the conditions have been met to hold unity votes in Ireland.
“If you look at what the Good Friday Agreement says, it makes provision for a border poll, it makes provision for a referendum on unification, but it says in the Good Friday Agreement that it should only happen when the Secretary of State Northern Ireland has formed the opinion that it might pass,” he said.
The biggest difficulty of a referendum, or a border poll that would be unsuccessful, would be that it would probably take the issue off the agenda for a long period of time.
“Just look at the referendum for example on a republic in Australia, that must be 20-25 years ago now. If you look at the referendum on the independence of Quebec in Canada, defeated narrowly and that’s not really on the political agenda anymore.”
Holding concurrent referendums north and south on unity is provided for within the Good Friday Agreement should the UK’s Secretary of State for Northern Ireland determine that such referendums are likely to pass.
While that is clear within the GFA, there is a lack of clarity over the metrics the Secretary would use to make that judgement.
Put to him today that there is “ambiguity” around this issue, Varadkar agreed but said that empirical facts such as Assembly seats can be used.
“If we look at the elections, even though Sinn Féin have been doing extremely well in the elections, they’ve largely been doing well at the expense of other nationalist parties,” Varadkar said.
The last Assembly election in which Sinn Fein emerged as the largest party, and well done to them for achieving that, the number of nationalist MLAs actually went down. And you’ll see the vote for parties that advocate for unification is really stuck in or around 40%.
Speaking about Sinn Féin south of the border, Varadkar said the party has managed to “dominate opposition” but added that they are unlikely to have enough support to enter government without the support of others in the Dáil.
“Things change once an election is called and public opinion resets, it can reset for you or against you. You never really know until it happens,” he said.
“And also to form a government in the proportional system you need to have about 50% of the vote. The reason why we have this three party coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens is because our combined support was just over 50% in the election. Now, Sinn Féin’s doing well in opinion polls but it’s low 30s, it’s well short of the 50% that you’d need to form in the form of government.”
Speaking elsewhere this afternoon following the Taoiseach’s comments, Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O’Neill challenged Varadkar to take a role of responsibility in terms of planning for constitutional change in Ireland.
“I think the Taoiseach should roll up his sleeves and get to work around the preparation and planning for constitutional change,” she told reporters at Stormont.
Let’s have a really healthy, informed debate around what the future could look like, how it could be better for everybody who shares this island.
“I would encourage the Taoiseach to actually take a role of responsibility in terms of planning for constitutional change – have the Citizens’ Assembly, let’s talk about the health service in the event of constitutional change, let’s talk about what education looks like, what the economy looks like, the benefits that it could bring. I think that’s where his energies should be better placed.”
- With reporting by Press Association
Not to worry Lieo, you won’t be in charge from late next year.
@Chett Richards: who will be in charge
@Patrick O Connell: From observing attitudes, I’d imagine Sinn Fein.
@Chett Richards: ahh Chett, don’t be fooled by the headbangers on here. The real world is out there.
@Chett Richards: Hopefully he will lost his seat at the next election.
@Chett Richards: I’ll be voting for whoever campaigns to remove McEntee’s Hate Bill.
@Chett Richards: It’s best not to make assumptions, especially about situations related to Dublin Central and the chickens there. There is many a slip between the cup and the lip.
@Paddy Keane: Very true. They’re very fond of counting votes until the “right” result is found.
@Chett Richards: Possibly not but you couldn’t rule out the current coalition being returned either or some variation of it anyway. Housing has been the current main two parties downfall so they can’t have any complaints if they are dumped out.
@Pat the Baker: you’re against protecting ordinary members of society from hate and intimidation?
@Chett Richards: Hopefully
@Roj Blake: I’m against big Pharma companies like Abbvie where Helen McEntee’s husband now works using their clout to get a law that is first and foremost designed to silence the entire population from challenging Trans ideology so that they can increase their profits at the expense of vulnerable children and young adults. I don’t actually care about middle-age men who have had their lives and children before they decide to cosplay being a parody of what they think a woman is.
If they want to be chemically or surgically castrated they can knock themselves out. I don’t think whatever cosmetic surgery they have turns them into a woman and they should not be allowed into women only spaces. No men should – no matter how they self identify.
@Chett Richards: at 35% of the vote a good majority of the country dont want them.
Who in their right mind would vote for a united ireland, english don’t want it either, havea look at last poll in uk, northern ireland is a basket case, only sentimentally from pro 32 keeping itgoung, civil war in the the morning if it came through, uk subsidises the north by billions every year, be glad to get rid
@burrito girl: Most English don’t care and don’t even know that NI is part of the UK.
@burrito girl: Jesus… I’ve been trying to construct a comment here, to disagree with everything you’ve said – but the more I read over your comment, and… how utterly ‘all over the shop’ it is, the more I think how little point there is in even trying – where would one even begin? It suffices to say: what a load of old… poppycock. A United Ireland is coming, it is best to accept it – and not be left behind.
@Frank: It will come if and when the people choose it. It is by no means inevitable or predetermined in any particular timescale.
@burrito girl: Most Polls concerning the border poll was in favour of a United Ireland..Certainly polls can be misleading when the actual vote occurs, but then you had the British secretary of State for NI sating the a majority of 51% would not be enough..Varadkar and Martin were equally in voice over the percentage in agreeing with the SSNI. Think its their version of Democracy that counts not the electorate….Personally can’t see a border poll for a few years yet..Wonder why the Journal didn’t pose the question to Varadkar or Martin..If the border poll won..Of course that certainly would not suit Varadkar.
@burrito girl: Id say most of the population would vote for a United ireland
@BL Music: & where is all the money going to come from how many billion is pumped into the North from England
@burrito girl: Absolutely ridiculous and embarrassing comment, the ignorance is beyond belief!! Honestly, you should be ashamed and embarrassed about this! Crazy stuff altogether
@burrito girl: The majority on the island of Ireland would.Most of us would like to see a united Ireland,.
Border polls , NATO , the GREEN Agenda, ffs the people of Ireland need houses built
I’m not sure a referendum would pass down here, never mind up north. Any polls on this topic in the south are conducted in full knowledge that it’s still really just an abstract question, so romantic views of reunification will likely carry more weight. But if the question was actually being asked of us and we had to consider the practicalities a lot of that romanticism would be washed away. Do we want to pay for a welfare and public services dependent statelet, do we want a million angry unionists in our country who would rather not be in our country, do we want the DUP in our Dail, probably in our government at some stage? Zero chance of it passing up north any time soon so it can continue to exist as a concern only in the abstract down here for now anyway.
@Peter Wiggin: we don’t get to vote on it down here.. The vote is only held in Northern Ireland, it’s written into the GFA which the whole Island voted on
@Antbony Kearns: No, there has to be a referendum in each part of the island.
@Artxandos: It’s difficult to see how “their right of self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given … to bring about a united Ireland” could be achieved without a referendum in the South. How else do we give our consent?
@Antbony Kearns: Lol. Why would you post that comment when it sounds like you haven’t got a clue? There would be a referendum north and south both of which must pass. Due to the pattern of demographics which really is the most important factor, the complete lack of interest that Britain has in NI, and the continued behaviour of the DUP and their own self sabotage driving trade north/south trade and alienating middle ground voters everywhere you look it seems very likely that there will be a border poll called and that it will eventually pass. I would imagine one will be called in about 10 years time. It could be all over then.
@Brendan O’Brien: correct
Realistically it would be 5-10 years for a border poll.. Both sides of the Community up North would have to know what a United Ireland would look like.. It’s not as straightforward as holding a vote tomorrow and asking do you want a United Ireland without knowing what one would look like
If we had reunification, the Unionist/Loyalists would insist on ridding the tricolour, and our national anthem, they’d insist on continuing their bonfire building with their vile burning of effigies of nationalist figures, and furthermore they would claim ethnic minority and special status, resulting in unnecessary money being spent on them to continue their antics. In my mind it would be hard to swallow!
@Marie Agnew: People who would insist on sticking with the Republic’s flag and anthem don’t really want a new or agreed Ireland.
@Brendan O’Brien: For once I totally agree with you Brendan! I love the Tricolour personally, it’s a great flag – but if we want the what-will-be-former-Unionists to feel included, and be a part of our SHARED new country (which we should do, if we genuinely want to succeed and thrive as a country) – then the very least we can do is create a new flag, together – one that we can ALL stand proudly under, as equals – with no one group above or below another – perceived or real. I respect people will have different views, with regards to the flag – and the history behind it, but I can’t help but think – if you were to ask the brave men of 1916 – whether a flag – ANY FLAG – was more important, than a 32-county, united Republic of Ireland – they’d say “no, a United Ireland is the goal – nothing else matters, get it done”. Just my opinion…
An Taoiseach is correct. Brexit has done wonders for the north/south economic relations. The protocol has been an absolute success. And it’s economics that’ll ultimately make reunification a no brainer for some of the most staunch unionists. Some…
I think no one is calling for a border poll today or tomorrow.. SF are calling for preparation for an informed border poll…a people’s assembly to discuss what a new United Ireland would look like…. seems the sensible way to go… IMO a united Ireland is inevitable in the next 5-10 years… seems like a good idea to discuss the various important issues that will arrise when it happens.
How come we have a united rugby team ( favourites for the world cup) and we have two soccer teams who cant get a decent result between them.Surely we can cooperate in many areas without even referring to ourselves as a “United Ireland”.
@Willie Marty: our soccer teams joined together or as they are would be sh! /e either way.
@Willie Marty: the soccer teams is quite an interesting story, and the north/south aspect of it is more recent than many people think. Basically after independence the IFA still wanted games held up in Belfast so the FAI formed to hold games in Dublin, but both organisations still represented the whole island. Quite a few players over the years would play for the FAI team so they could compete in World Cup qualifying (the IFA weren’t members of FIFA) but then switch to the IFA team to play in the home nations tournament. It was only when the 4 U.K. FAs joined FIFA around 1950 that FIFA forced the split, as we couldn’t have two teams representing the same country/island.
I think the thing with the border poll is those pushing for it are so eager for it to happen that they want the vote to happen earlier than when it’s really ready for it in the hope that it wins by a few percentage. Like the Scottish referendum It will fall short and then they want another in 5-10 years time because they have put so much effort into it and want it to crawl over the line.
The equality referendum and the real the 8th referendum were fairly dead ringers in the end and to be honest there was no dispute about the outcome. Brexit also an example of the aftermath of such a close election.
I think it just needs to be let happen naturally and when there is actually a clear majority they vote but until then it’s just asking for trouble.
@Jonny Parkinson: there should be a minimum threshold for a border poll to succeed. The last thing we need is a “Brexit” result with a 51/49 majority, effectively alienating half the country and sowing seeds of discontent for a generation.
@Paul Shepherd: Paul the rules for the Boeder Poll gave already been agreed in Good Friday Agreement – it cannot be changed – don’t mind what DUP tend to say or anyone else’s opinion either !!
So we no longer hold elections until we are sure of the outcome? Lol What a Tawt.
Leo looks like a proper Blueshirt in that photo – just needs the hate speech bill and we will all have to do as we’re told.
FFG are campaigning for a no boarder poll .They have been negative about it for donkey’s years . They are more beholden to the British than to the people of Ireland .
Their scaremongering rubs off on some ..
Why does that sound like “Losing a General election would put FF & FG out of government for a long period” to me?
Why would anyone in NI vote for unification when the Windsor Agreement gives such an economic advantage? Just keep the status quo and keep the benefits
I can’t remember the last time I’ve agreed with him, but on this he has a point.
Fr. Romeo Sensìnì cant agree with you there padre both sides are lacking a few players .We could achieve a lot together
So in order not to lose it, we’ll just ignore it.
What a lad.
Worth every penny of the 350K salary.
Paid more than half his European counterparts.
Losing you Leak won’t be no great loss to the polls either!!
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