Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
IN PRESIDENT DONALD Trump’s world – which we all live in, like it or not – this summer commenced with the passage of the “big, beautiful bill” and is consumed by tariffs as it approaches its dénouement. Trying to stay abreast of the myriad pronouncements he makes on a near daily basis is a quasi-impossible task.
Deadlines are set. Deadlines pass by. Countries rotate in and out of the firing line. Experts do their best to assess accurately what this unpredictable, unprecedented individual is at, only to be proven way off the mark. No one knows. Predicting what’s next is a fool’s errand. What is apparently agreed is easily undone, imminently.
The “certainty” arising from the purported deal imposing a 15% tariff on exports from the European Union to the United States that was struck between Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the former’s Scottish golf resort and heralded rather positively by political leaders on this side of the Atlantic, including our own, seems a pipedream. The unabashed America Firster asserts that levies on pharmaceuticals could rise to 150%, or perhaps to 250%.
He referenced Ireland specifically in this context. This country is undeniably exposed, given the scale of pharmaceutical imports from here to the US. And in a further regrettable development this week, a group of Congress members urged the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to examine if the Irish Government’s proposed ban on trade with illegal Israeli settlements would breach American anti-boycott laws. A worrying move.
This, after Ireland was singled out for negative mention in a Fox News item, suggesting dubiously that we are overrun by immigrants from Africa and that Dublin is no longer a safe city to visit.
This was not random or coincidental. My suspicion is that this is just the beginning of factually bereft, yet potentially very detrimental, attacks on various fronts that will be orchestrated by the Israeli lobby and its acolytes in high places. Ireland’s morally correct stance on Palestine and what is transpiring in Gaza has made us an extremely powerful enemy. Israel’s backers in the US are particularly incensed at the prospect of the Occupied Territories Bill. There will be a backlash, and we know the Trump administration is responsive to AIPAC and Co.
The foregoing hasn’t accounted for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Despite America’s efforts and pledges to end the conflict there, as well as the suffering being inflicted on the residents of Gaza by Israel, both situations look to be as problematic as ever. We hope and pray for speedy resolutions and an end to the killing.
Time for a deep breath prior to succumbing to despair. There are several factors mitigating against full-on doom and gloom. Those who lament the economic chaos arising from President Trump’s variable posturing should remember that midterms loom on the horizon, and the battle to succeed him will shortly be underway in the land of the endless campaign. His window is closing slowly, hence the frenetic pace.
His tariffs are under legal challenge by companies and states in the US. Those close to him have confided to journalists that they are not sure the tariffs will survive scrutiny, even if the ultimate arbiter is a generally friendly Supreme Court. The tens of billions that are pouring into the nation’s coffers, which Trump regularly celebrates, might prove ephemeral.
Additionally, the outflow from all of this truly hasn’t been felt tangibly by the sole jury whose verdict Trump cares about: his voter base. The key political question is, when and if the many millions of struggling Americans who have coalesced around an implausible champion are adversely affected, will they stand by their man and the GOP, or will they drift? Pressure points could emerge, causing him to at least partially retreat.
Lastly, some of what President Trump says is simply not worth listening to. Of course, his status means that global stakeholders will take notice of his every utterance. Yet plenty of the verbiage is fantastical. It is notable that the markets, having learned a collective lesson, move more on his deeds than on his words.
Still, this is a period of absolute uncertainty. And while those who come after him may be quite different to Donald Trump, temperamentally and otherwise, his tumultuous tenure in the White House probably marks the commencement of a process in which the US, at the behest of its people, redefines its relationship with the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, at home, the Irish political chattering classes, though not the broader citizenry in my experience, speculate incessantly as to how the impending race to follow Michael D Higgins as Uachtarán na hÉireann will unfold. There are merely two confirmed aspirants, Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness and independent (with the support of parties, groupings and individuals on the left) Catherine Connolly, at this juncture.
Hypothesising abounds in a vacuum. Will Sinn Féin row in behind Connolly? If not, who will they run, and could their nominee be Mary Lou McDonald? A lot of cold water has been dumped on the chances of her taking the plunge. But if she does, will that force Micheál Martin to consider a bid for the Áras? If Mary Lou doesn’t, is it viable for Fianna Fáil to again sit this one out?
And as some have opined, is it much too early to discount the odds that someone not currently on the radar might emerge and alter the dynamics utterly? Or could this bizarrely wind up a one-on-one, a la US presidential election contests, between Connelly and McGuinness?
These known unknowns will continue to animate us political junkies in the weeks ahead.
Finally, the summer months have never flown by as quickly. The lovely, lengthy evenings of May and June zipped by; July was a blur; and we are in the throes of, as they are described in the US, the “dog days” of August. September will swiftly be upon us.
A wonderful trip to Salou in mid-July gave the three of us at home the opportunity to catch up with my 26-year-old stepson, now enjoying the dream in Barcelona. The almost two decades since he welcomed a strange Bostonian with open arms and an open heart have gone in the blink of an eye. Meanwhile, my namesake, with whom I have had the pleasure of spending many, many hours at Wicklow Golf Club since he finished sixth class in late June, as his game flourishes and mine falters, is getting too old for me. He’s 12.
But mind you, he’s starting secondary school. It’s unbelievable. Where did the time go? Seeing parents with toddlers conjures up the fondest of memories, and, in a refrain deliberately designed to irk young Larry, I inform him that I actually liked him when he was that age. The not-so-little wise guy then typically retorts by telling me the sad truth that I am 50.
Life really should have a pause button.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
have your say