TheJournal.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more »
Dublin: 3 °C Saturday 25 May, 2013

Troika thought the Government was optimistic with Budget 2013

The Troika and the Government had significantly different predictions for how much Ireland is going to grow over the next two years.

Michael Noonan on Budget Day
Michael Noonan on Budget Day
Image: Julien Behal/PA Wire

THE IRISH GOVERNMENT wrote Budget 2013 using financial forecasts which were considerably more optimistic than projections made by the Troika about Ireland’s future.

The government and the Troika had significantly different predictions on Ireland’s unemployment levels, deficit target and on how much Ireland will grow over the next two years, according to a draft European Commission report seen by TheJournal.ie which is due to be released in several weeks.

The Troika notes that the average yearly difference between the two predictions on Ireland’s growth was 0.3 percentage points – with the government predicting Ireland’s GDP would be €1.5 billion higher than the Troika estimate by 2015.

The Department of Finance also predicts slightly stronger employment growth for Ireland in 2013. The document says the reasons why the differences exist between the estimates are because Ireland has more optimistic forecasts for domestic demand and slightly strong export developments.

Ireland’s deficit target is also more optimistic than the one put forward by the Troika.

It cites the introduction of the property tax, the broadening of the labour tax base and increases in motor tax and excises as reasons why Revenue will increase over the coming year.

Savings are expected to be made across a range of cuts which have been introduced, including reducing child benefit rates, further cuts to the number of public service employees and increased student fees.

The report was prepared by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs in the European Commission by the mission chief to Ireland.

- Additional reporting by Gavan Reilly

In full: TheJournal.ie’s coverage on the leaked European documents >

Read: Troika wants less pay, more hours for public sector workers >

Read: Government to hire private companies to find work for long-term unemployed >

Read next:

Comments (88 Comments)

  • Does this mean that the best boy in the class has been cheating on his homework?!?!
    I’m shocked and disgusted.

    Reply
  • Meanwhile back in stupidvile, the electorate is preparing to bring back the shower of morons who put us in this mess in the first place.

    Reply
  • Being optimistic cant bring a solution to the Broken Table, Realistic is much better..,

    Reply
  • OK.

    I’m gonna say this again.

    This governments knows we are goosed. The reason the stabilty isnt working, and the 5 point plan isnt working because the system is broken, actually it’s smashed to pieces.

    We recapitilise the banks. Nothing changes.
    We tax the hell out of the middle class, they dont spend.
    We introduce property taxes when the vast majority of people are in negative equity and hate the homes they are tied to.
    Water tax on the way.
    Elderly being neglected.
    TD pay untouched.
    Censorship getting to scary levels.

    GUYS WAKE UP….THEY DONT HAVE A PLAN………….

    Reply
  • I watched the news conference yesterday with enda and barasso and i have to say i wasant convinced by enda at all. when baroso thought that the bank deal was going to be brought up he sat bolt upright in quite a defensive pose. baroso also never mentioned one word about the ongoing negociations but we got the usual statement from enda about expecting a deal to be done quite soon. it always seems that he seems to be on a completely different page than the europeans. mercel since the start of these talks has always used the words debt sustainability whale enda is using phrases like debt restructure or debt writedown/writeoff which is a world of difference. i have a fear for all the pain we have taken as a nation we are going to get what mercel says debt sustainability and we will become the debt slaves of europe

    Reply
  • Troika doesn’t seem to have much trust in the governments abilities.

    Reply
    • The Troika isnt the only party without faith in the Government ability ..we dont have any faith in them either…I wish they would stop pretending to the Irish people that “we have turned a corner” there are “green shoots appearing” …neither of these things is true…we are in a bad place, nobody has any money (except Tds) and nobody has a plan ..when we turned that corner they keep talking about we fell into a big black hole and somebody stole the ladder for climbing out. I sound depressed dont I ..well I am not….. I am mad as hell at the mess this country is in…

      Reply
    • Does anyone other than thems selves

      Reply
  • yesterday it was all good news but today it seems to be all bad news, a day is a long time in politics!

    Reply
    • oh vincent where art thou!

      Reply
    • Ryan'O 11/01/13 #

      Writing Enda’s speech

      Reply
    • @Frank- I was putting in a days work. Someone has to pay for all those socialist giveaways you dream of. Yesterday WAS good news. This is a statement of opinion. Amazing how the very same people on here who daily rage against the Troika today regard their word as Gospel? The reality is there’s a myriad of factors that will impact on our performance. Nobody knows for sure. And surely the Government is doing the bidding of you lefties by being over-optimistic….softening the Troikas calls for harsher austerity.

      Reply
    • fair dues vincent,
      public or private sector?, private meself
      instead of enda backing us out of that ditch i think hes put the car in the wrong gear and hes gone and got it rightly banjaxed

      Reply
    • Ryan'O 11/01/13 #

      Fair dues is right! I mean to come on here and try to defend the frankly indefensible yet again is applaudable. You truly are a party die hard fanatic. I don’t know if I should pity you or despise you. Vincent I send my condolences your way. I’m sorry for your loss of any reality. May god be with you.

      Reply
    • Frank and Ryan hanging off the every word of the Troika. Who’d have thought?

      Reply
    • now you know thats not true vincent you know i have always said the boys arent up to it

      Reply
    • can you explain such a difference in opinion between the troika and the government and why that has existed for some time now

      Reply
    • Yes, Frank. The Troika are looking at things purely from a cold, European economic perspective. The Government has a broader set of considerations. Ye would be whining if our Government didn’t differ from the Troika.

      Reply
    • The ego of some of the regular comenters here is amazing. They give such weight to their own opinions……..

      Reply
    • i was talking about the bank deal but you knew that,
      i am going to be quite sincere here vincent as i think your contributions on this site make for good debate.
      before the general election i wasant that keen on enda but what he was saying was right, he actually had a measured and workable plan and even though i was a leftie he made sense to me. the 5 point plan was a good framework. he was duly elected and it all went out the window. sorry i would like to give him credit for one thing after that, his handling of the enquiry into the church was excellent and for it i will be eternally grateful. everything else has been a disaster. I have been trying to find something to compare it to and the only thing that keeps coming into my head is the father ted episode, the eurovision one. dougal and ted have a good plan, albeit a bit dodgy, they pick a song and practice it . its a good song and they have it off perfectly.
      just before they go on they change their minds because they think they will be caught for cheating, oblivious to the fact that everyone else around them are at it. they go on stage and the rest as we all know is history.
      I fear this is the way it is going to end for us too

      Reply
  • “we’re 85% of the way to turning the corner to the tunnel with the light at the end of it….”

    All crap. Is hoping for some truth out of this government a bit too much to ask for once they secure their pensions in February?

    Reply
    • What?? We aren’t even in the tunnel with the light at the end – we are only turning the corner to to tunnel … Ah crap!

      Reply
    • But “We are where we are!!!!”
      “Moving forward!!”
      When it really means…
      “Phew!! We’re ripping the s**t outta the poor, sick, unemployed , and the general workforce, but thank god the bondholders are getting their unsecured investments paid!!!!!

      Reply
    • Get rid of them before February.. shame is that they have tied our hands together behind out backs, also our feet in a ball and chain, then they feed us sh*te through the media.
      Makes it very difficult for any of to do anything.
      They have been paid far too much and why should they get a huge pension payoff fr annihilation of the country.

      Reply
  • Amazing the scarcity of FG supporters on an article like this…’good’ news comes out and they’re in here spouting the vituosities of the Widow Twanky and company..

    Reply
  • One month ago they told us that was the toughest budget. Boll0x was it.

    All they have done is suck any spending power away from the middle classes ensuring that they have
    - no money to spend in the domestic economy
    - cannot go to the doctor or bring a child unless they’re literally dying
    - can’t afford college for their kids

    All so we can continue to pay for unjustifiably high salaries for certain PS jobs. Jobs that don’t even need to be done.

    We must abolish all Quangos. We must make those workers redundant. We must do it this week.

    Otherwise the tax payers will leave in such numbers that the country will collapse. It’s already happening. 87,100 left in 2012 and live register is 11,000 lower.

    Reply
    • @scrap- Fine Gael have absolutely protected the middle class.

      Reply
    • Ryan'O 11/01/13 #

      Raped the middle class. We are now the working poor! Thanks to the soft and flaccid leadership shown by Enda Kenny. And before you start on your fairytales about a future bank deal, save yourself the bother. We want a write down of this debt that is not ours! Not a baby bank deal thrown to us like scraps off the dinner table.

      Reply
    • Vote Sinn Fein in. See how the Middle Class are then.

      Reply
    • Vincent. He took €58 pm child allowance plus €5pw from prsi. College fees up. Pint up. Car tax up. Property tax in July and water tax after that. And I pay EXACTLY the same as someone on half my money.

      He didn’t touch dole/rent allowance at the bottom or pension relief at the top. PS since before 1995 will only suffer €12 a year drop because of the prsi change.

      Enda has robbed the middle classes

      Vlad the Impaler would show more mercy

      Reply
    • Ryan'O 11/01/13 #

      I think I might just do that. I may as well give them a go since the FFgOFF parties have done nothing but run the country straight to Europe-slave-ville on a gravy train that’s something akin of the orient express. Choooo Chooo

      Reply
    • @scrap- yep. That €5 per week is killing the middle class. Income tax. The big one. Untouched.

      Reply
  • FcUK the troika. I’m very very tired of it

    Reply
  • More Lies, to introduce cuts and Taxes!

    Reply
  • where all the blue shirts now. we only papered over the cracks the walls still falling down. the markets bought r bonds not in the belief we have fixed r money issues, but that the eu will not let any European country default.

    Reply
  • But they told me that, there was hope and that we may see a corner and then we might go around that corner where they keep the prosperity.

    Dazed and confused,
    Adebayo

    Reply
    • That corner is right beside the soft landing, which was also foreseen. Why didn’t we listen to David McWilliams?

      Reply
    • Julie 11/01/13 #

      From what I can see from reading the comments on journal articles today, people don’t like Europe and feel they have done nothing for us , people don’t like the government and know they screwed us over and are still screwing us over and don’t care, just tell them lies keep them happy. SO WHY THE HELL ARE WE NOT DOING SOMETHING MORE RADICAL, we are this country the Irish citizens why are we letting them do this majority people don’t want this! ! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

      Reply
    • What they failed to tell you is that the corner is only profitable for ladies with short skirts and fishnet stockings.

      Reply
    • Well Jim,

      When we find this corner we will hope our way down the tunnel and I will meet you @ the mini skirts.

      Do they accept bonds?
      Adebayo

      Reply
  • It’s what People of Ireland think about budget 2013, which matters most!

    Reply
  • I believe the Troika’s figures over ours. They have no reason to lie but it’s very much in our governments interest to talk everything up. 0.3% difference in growth rate prediction doesn’t sound like much anyway. In 2007 the ERSI ( government quango) predicted the economy would grow at 4% for the next 20 years. How wrong can you get. The dogs on the street etc..

    Reply
  • most people here are scared shitless of the government. Thats why we don’t have any decent numbers on the street in mass protests.

    Instead they swallow all the BS sweeteners of
    Light at the end of the tunnel, jobs, stability , turning a corner…

    Reply
  • Ade – Im only afraid to inform you that things will get a whole lot worse over the next 12 months.

    Reply
  • It’s not a budget it’s a fleecing that was imposed on us and all for nothing by the looks of things

    Reply
  • Bren Dan 12/01/13 #

    First step to communism is the destruction of the middle class.

    Reply
  • What’s the viable alternative to the current Government that we have in power? Genuine question being posed…FF, the political party that ran the country into the ground in the first place with over spending and mis-management? SF, the professed political wing of a terrorist organisation? An already shaky alliance of socialists/independents?
    I think that the country needs a greater choice in political parties and/or the reformation of the existing – I for one would welcome more young bloods onto the scene…whilst experience gained with age will always be essential I do think the people deserve a greater political choice in the party options they have to vote for

    Reply

Add New Comment