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THE REDUCED FIANNA Fáil parliamentary party will meet today for the first time since the election.
The meeting, which will take place in Leinster House is set to focus on the outcome of the general election as well as the possibility of a potential power deal with Sinn Féin or Fine Gael.
Prior to polling day, party leader Micheál Martin stated that he envisaged a government led by him involving smaller parties such as the Green Party, the Social Democrats and Labour.
Following such a poor election performance from the party, which saw its seats drop from 46 to 38, such an arrangement appears out of reach for the Cork TD.
Instead, far less palatable options are open to Martin – a coalition with Sinn Féin, perhaps with the Green Party, which could act as a buffer, or what some Fianna Fáil supporters might see as unconscionable – a grand coalition with Fine Gael.
Martin has made contact with the leaders of the smaller parties, such as Labour in recent days. Labour said yesterday that it did not have a mandate to enter government and believed the two of the three parties which returned with the most seats should bite the bullet and form a stable government.
While Martin has been speaking to the smaller parties, so too has Mary Lou McDonald, who held meetings with People Before Profit and the Green Party yesterday.
Speculation is rife about how long government formation talks will end up and who will go in with who.
A senior Fine Gael source has predicted that after much back and forth between Sinn Féin and the smaller parties, talks will commence with Fianna Fáil, only for that to cause a major divide within that party. As the months roll by, pressure will mount on politicians to form a government, this Fine Gael source believes, and that in the end, a grand coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be the most likely outcome.
However, others within Leinster House have stated that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil in government together is more achievable. The big obstacle is that the party said it would not do so before the election, something Dublin Bay South TD Jim O’Callaghan has been at pains to point out in recent days.
TheJournal.ie called all Fianna Fáil TDs to gauge their mood about such an option.
While many were tight-lipped, stating: “No comment” or “I’m not going there”, others were more clear cut, stating that what the party will do may become more clearer after today’s parliamentary party meeting.
While Martin has gone to ground since the election, he has been testing the mood within the party.
Speaking to Tipperary TD Jackie Cahill on Tuesday, Martin said the issue of government formation would be discussed today at the meeting.
“We hadn’t a good day, there is no point in saying otherwise. We want to form a stable government, we will see where we go from after the meeting this week,” he told TheJournal.ie.
When asked if possibilities will be discussed, he said: “a path should be clear of where we are going after that meeting”.
Laois TD Sean Fleming said Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin entering government together is an “impossibility” as the two parties cannot reach the magic number of 80 seats (the number needed to form a government).
“Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin don’t make up the numbers – that’s my answer. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin cannot and will not make up a government with those numbers – it can’t happen…
“Whether people like the idea or not, the numbers aren’t there. It is mathematically impossible,” he said.
What is his preferred option for the FF party to take?
“My preferred option is – FF and FG got 43% of the vote, others got 57% of the vote. It is now up to them to take up the mantle. Let those who got the majority go form a government,” he said.
Veteran Fianna Fáiler, Eamon O’Cuiv said he didn’t want to bother with “what ifs”, adding that the parliamentary party would have to think “around all angles of this”.
On a grand coalition with Fine Gael, he said Sinn Féin would become the “new Fianna Fáil”, stating that he had heard comments made in the run-up the election about “FFG” and Fine Fail’.
“Inevitably there are similarities” between the two parties, he said, adding that Sinn Féin “stands for unity” and it is one of the Fianna Fáil’s top priorities also.
Both parties also want to promote the Irish language, and both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil have housing as one of the main planks in their manifestos.
When asked to state if he was in favour of the two parties entering into coalition, based on them both having such similarities, O’Cuiv said: “Not going there, not going to go there.”
However, he added:
I would not do business with Fine Gael even if there was no other party left in the Dáil.
Some within Fianna Fáil have said a clear rural and urban divide is emerging between those that are okay with going into power with Sinn Féin and those that are not. Either way, Martin finds himself facing some difficult decisions and possibly losing even more TDs based on whatever way he decides to go.
Today’s meeting should make for some interesting debate.
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The biggest trouble with this working paper is that it’s a classic case of nuanced academia meets tabloid headlines.
In this case, tabloid Irish Times coverage
Again… What short term…
My partner works… And makes just to much many to avail of family income supplement school allowances etc…. I need 33k to break even on childcare commute clothing cost when going to work.
We are taxed up to the hilt….
One of us at home… The other making a bit less would give us a higher expendable income and more time with our kids.
Thing is psychological we need work. So now for 100 a month extra we hardly see our kids
This report played right into the Krugman’s fallacy. People who work pay taxes, buy stuff (like child care) and generally support the employment of others. If more people go on the dole that has a strong negative feedback effect on the economy and their neighbors. Which is why, of course, austerity fails in a depression and stimulus works.
Clearly there is nothing wrong with the paper which can be read on the Irish Times, instead what we have is political interference, the powers that be in the ESRI blocking Tol’s research and that suggests the ESRI are not an independent institution. Actually what conclusions can be drawn from this research is how hard it is for low earners to survive in this country, with 7000 to 9000 costs just clocked up yearly form actually going to work. It also makes a laugh of the governments jobsbridge scheme, which is actually costing those with least income in our society to take up these shtty dead-end “internships” because the government has done nothing about job creation.
There is an important point here about the ubiquity of ecomonic commentators in Ireland at the current time. People seem to forget (and some economists don’t seem to realise) that life and society is much more complex than that which can be measured in pure economic terms. This is the same logic that looks at the value of culture only in terms of what it can pull in in hard tourist dollars.
I felt some sympathy (but not too much!) for Moore McDowell on a recent Frontline debate when he was asked to comment on the economics of Arts funding in Ireland. His opinion was undermined before he opened his mouth by PK’s reference to Oscar Wilde’s aphorism about knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing and Michael Colgan was able to seize on this in his criticism of the narrow focus of economics.
The ESRI, as its name suggests, has a remit beyond pure economics but it appears that this working paper leaned too heavily on that particular field of analysis.
Does anyone know the purpose of the ERSI?
And assuming it delivers on that purpose is it more important to our society than many of the services that have been slashed?
Just askin’
Thanks Brendan – I asked for that, so let me put the question a different way….
How would Irish society be worse off if the ERSI didn’t exist?
No problem Paul :)
Well for a start we wouldn’t have any of the following publications: http://www.esri.ie/publications/latest_publications/
ERSI reports are used to develop policy in relation to a wide range of areas. If there was no ERSI, there wouldn’t be the research, so there wouldn’t be any information to work off. So instead of the government of the day making crazed decisions based on the best possible evidence, they’d be making crazed decisions on no evidence at all.
At 12.8 million in 2010 that information comes relatively cheaply, particularly if you consider that in the same year we spent €1.354 Billion on Defence.
Nat,
Just to clear something up – the word ‘unprecedented’ was used by the ESRI themselves in their statement last night, which is why we in The Irish Times used it. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0612/breaking49.html
In the light of this, perhaps you might want to rephrase your introductory comments?
Regards,
Kilian
I’d pay a few pennies to see the opening comment changed to “we checked to see if it was in fact ‘unprecedented’, which the Irish Times didn’t do.”
Kilian,
Fair enough. I’ve changed the original post to reflect this.
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2012/06/costs-of-working-in-ireland.html
Regards,
Nat
where is my comment
you are now censoring comments
None of your comments have been deleted from this piece Seamus. Was it on one of the other articles about Richard Tol, perhaps?
Well, back for a second small bite, after reading the paper, these and other posts and comments, it is clear that the paper is assigning costs for short term unemployment in a booming economy, while the inference, which the authors have not denied is for long term unemployment, e.g. people who stop working in order to take advantage of the short term differential.
According to Tol himself the “takeaway” food figure is overall spend on convenience food, NOT just lunch money. I suspect the clothing figure of 25 a week is also overall spend and not just for work. Correcting that would make a big difference to the results.
Well Christine another comment has not gone up.???.
There’s no record in the system of you leaving any other comments on this piece (besides the three that have already appeared here) so I’m going to pass this on to our tech team and see what the issue is. None of your comments have been removed by anyone here, just for the record. In the meantime, it could be worth clearing your cache and trying to post again.
Honestly, Christine this has never happened before, two comments in relation to the above article were not posted.
Have you tried turning it off an on again, Seamus?:)
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