HOUSING OFFICIALS HAVE expressed concerns about a government pledge to build 300,000 new homes amid a “weakening” supply line and drop in planning approvals.

An internal report by the Department of Housing has also warned housing completions could begin to decline from 2028 if the drop in planning approvals is not reversed.

The findings cast major doubt on the government’s plans to dramatically increase the supply of housing in the coming years.

A new housing plan published in November aimed to deliver a minimum of 300,000 new homes by 2031, equivalent to an average of 50,000 homes per year from 2026 onwards.

As part of the plan, the government scrapped annual targets but pledged an overall target of 300,000 homes by the end of 2030.

Figures published by the CSO in January showed there were 36,284 new houses built last year, almost 30% short of the average 50,000 figure needed over the next five years.

The internal Department of Housing report - which was circulated just one week after the government announced its plans – suggests there are doubts that figure can be reached.

In an apparent bid to explain the sums behind their thinking, officials say that 55,000 homes will need to receive planning permission each year from 2025 if 40,000 new homes are to be built each year from 2028 onwards.

But the report, released to The Journal under the Freedom of Information Act, said just 31,125 homes were given permission in the year to June 2025, a fall of 18% from June 2024. 

“The decline in overall approvals, as well as apartment approvals, has implications in the longer term for the delivery of Government’s revised housing targets, with approvals falling short of the quantum needed to hit target in 2026 and subsequent years,” it said.

The report also warned that the outlook for short- to long-term housing supplies could be impacted by the “sustained downward trend in planning approvals”.

It said that should the decline in planning approvals continue or even stabilise, supplies “could fall below current levels from 2028 onwards”.

There was a sliver of hope in the report, which said that the government could “shift the dial” by activating a “large number of uncommenced permissions still in the system”.

However, the report added that this would only go “some of the way to the number needed” to build 40,000 new homes a year from 2028. 

There is also no data on the number of uncommenced planning permissions, or reasons why they have not commenced.

The government has continued to come under pressure over the issue of housing in recent weeks, with figures from the CSO this week reporting that the median price of a home in Dublin has reached €500,000.

Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty this week told the Dáil that people “feel locked out” of the housing market ”because the system has failed them”.

Tánaiste Simon Harris responded to say that CSO figures also showed that 50,000 homes were purchased in 2025, a year-on-year increase that includes almost 20,000 first-time buyers.