A BY-ELECTION WILL be needed in Dublin Central now that is has been confirmed that Paschal Donohoe will be resigning and leaving his Dáil seat empty. 

The battle in this inner-city four seater constituency is of the most one closely fought in the country. 

In the last general election, high profile politicians held onto their seats: including Donohoe himself, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, and the Social Democrats spokesperson for Justice Gary Gannon. 

It’s a ‘bear-pit’ constituency with a fierce fight for the fourth seat, which was narrowly won by the Labour Party’s Marie Sherlock over notorious gangland figure Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch in 2024. 

The constituency is mostly comprised of the north inner city but stretches to East Wall and to the Port, and then hits its boundaries in the west at the Phoenix Park and in the north around Drumcondra. 

There are 127,000 voters in the area. 

Last time round McDonald topped the poll, followed by Gannon, with Donohoe and Sherlock claiming the third and fourth seats respectively. 

Who’s expected to be in contention this time? 

Fianna Fáil senator Mary Fitzpatrick missed out last time and polled behind Gerry Hutch, but it’s thought that she may make another bid this time around. 

Of course Fianna Fáil could pick a totally new name, but after the disaster of the Jim Gavin campaign, it’s unlikely to be another left-of-field choice. 

Will Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam run?

Speaking to The Journal just now, McAdam said “I’m not being coy, but I’m still taking in the news that Paschal is resigning.”

He had plenty of warm words to say about the now former finance minister, but when pressed he said that he is considering putting himself forward for the by-election.

“I genuinely have to talk to my family, my friends and my supporters, it’s come as a surprise. I’ve served in the North Inner City since 2009 and worked with Paschal over the years,” he said.

McAdam added that he does not want to “belittle” the office of Lord Mayor of Dublin by rushing to wade into a by-election, so he’s giving it careful consideration.

But if he does run, hypothetically, what issues would be at the forefront of his campaign?

“The first and foremost thing in Dublin Central is the issue of housing, we have a number of projects underway, including the affordable housing projects at O’Devaney Gardens opening soon. We have to deliver for people in terms of affordable and accessible housing.

He also said that vacancy and dereliction, as well as making the city safer and more appealing through the presence of community gardaí and transforming the “sterile, grey” parts of our cityscape to increase footfall would be at the top of his agenda.

“Overall we need an active city, a living city, and an engaged city,” McAdam surmised.

So… in the event that he does decide to run, he’s got the tagline ready.

Is a second bid in the stars for Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch?

Gerard Hutch has been fairly quiet since he narrowly missed out last year.

The infamous gangland figure made shockwaves when he flew in from Lanzarote and pulled up to the Dublin City Returning Officer’s office on a moped with his nomination papers tucked under his arm to officially enter the race.

Though Hutch won over 3000 votes, he missed out in the end.

When asked if he’d go again by media at the RDS, he said he would and added, “I’ve been running my whole life”.

Despite being one of the most high-profile figures in Irish organised crime for decades, he has never been convicted of serious offence. He did, however, pay more than two million pounds to the Criminal Assets Bureau. 

So, should we expect to hear from him anytime soon?

Well if The Monk running to become a TD after being found not guilty by the Special Criminal Court for the murder of David Byrne in the trial of the century has proven anything, it’s that we live in a world of manifold possibilities.

However he’s gone back to being pretty elusive since the election, and even raffled off his social media accounts so a small business could benefit from the following he’d built up over the course of the race.

Kevin Corcoran, the head coach who runs the Corinthians Boxing Club in the north inner city – which Hutch has been involved in supporting for a long time – told The Journal that he has “no idea what Gerry’s plans are”.

“He’s living away at the moment, so I really wouldn’t know,” Corcoran said.

Sinn Féin will eye up a second seat 

As we said, Mary Lou McDonald tops the poll in this constituency, but the party ran two candidates last time around, with local councillor Janice Boylan garnering just over 1,257 first preference votes. 

That landed her in 11th place, but everything is different in a by-election.

While it’s an uphill battle for any Government party candidate to win in a by-election, the left vote will be fragmented as each of the smaller parties are expected to put forward their own individual candidates, and Sinn Féin will face challenges from independent right wing candidates, as was the case last time around. 

So it’s all to play for. 

One political source from the constituency observed that a factor at play may be that the sitting TDs will not want to see their party put someone forward who could potentially oust them come the next election. 

“It’s that tight in this constituency, that you can be guaranteed that the TDs will be nervous about the idea of having a running mate who could overtake them,” they said. 

Social Democrats TD for the constituency Gary Gannon has said that the party will have multiple candidates to choose from.

He told RTÉ’s David McCullagh earlier that “hopefully” his party would be putting forward it’s own candidate in the by-election but that he’d hope for a “vote left, transfer left” pact. 

Neasa Hourigan has told The Journal that she will not be putting herself forward to contest the election for the Green Party, after she lost her seat in 2024. 

“I can confirm I will not be putting my name forward for election. During my time I worked very hard to build up our branch and strengthen our local work. We have some brilliant people in Dublin Central who would make excellent representatives for the area so I am going to leave it to the next generation,” she said.